2017 Fantasy Football PPR Mock Draft: Position No. 1

Via Last Word On Pro Football, by Mike Randle

It is never too early to participate in a Fantasy Football Mock Draft.

Even in the month of April.

In fact, it is always very helpful to complete a set of mocks that are based solely on last year’s returning players. It allows for greater clarity after the NFL draft, and can identify which returning players will have competition to maintain their starting positions.

The best place to draft from in the first mock of the 2017?  The first position, of course.

(This mock was completed at FantasyPros and was 12 team, Point Per Reception (PPR), three wide receiver format with five bench spots.  All data taken from PlayerProfiler.com)

2017 Fantasy Football PPR Mock Draft: Position No. 1

Round 1

PICK:  Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas
Reaction:  In a PPR format, most analysts would take David Johnson at the top spot. I prefer the security of Ezekiel Elliott with the Cowboys massive offensive line, especially with 37-year-old Carson Palmer serving as target practice behind the 25th ranked pass blocking Arizona offensive line. If Palmer goes down, Johnson will be much less effective. While Elliott brings risk as well, he provides the absolute safest floor. Just remember to always pair running backs with their respective handcuff, in this case Alfred Morris or Darren McFadden. The “big three” running backs go in order here, but Le’Veon Bell is always risky because of injury and off the field issues. T.Y. Hilton at number six overall? No thank you. It’s amazing how underrated Devonta Freeman is every year, but in PPR he is gold. A.J. Green has earned the injury-prone tag, but usually produces when healthy. Mike Evans is too low here. In PPR formats, he should go no lower than sixth.

Round 2

PICK:  Amari Cooper, Oakland
Reaction:  Selecting two running backs in a row is not advised in a three wide receiver format.  Amari Cooper was best available receiver and could break away from Michael Crabtree‘s 30 year old shadow this season. The running back drop off is massive after this round, so it is difficult to adhere to a full-fledged zero running back blueprint. Selecting Rob Gronkowski in round two is the kiss of death: don’t do it. How can DeAndre Hopkins go this early with Tom Savage as his current quarterback? Even if the Texans draft Deshaun Watson, his 45 mph throw velocity doesn’t inspire a Hopkins’ bounce back season. Very happy with Cooper in the last spot, as he is potentially the second best receiver in this round.

Round 3

PICK:  Spencer Ware, Kansas City
Reaction: Really thought for a long time before making this pick. Ware is a better PPR running back then most people realize. He had 33 receptions in 14 games, and finished sixth among all running backs with 447 receiving yards. After Jamaal Charles’ release, Ware is the definitive goal line running back in a run first offense. There are a ton of wide receiver question marks in this round. Will Alshon Jeffery produce and stay healthy in Philadelphia? Does Brandin Cooks get better or worse after leaving Drew Brees and a domed offense? Demaryius Thomas can catch it, but who will be throwing it? The other option would have been Sammy Watkins, who should have a big year with Tyrod Taylor now that he is completely healthy.

Round 4

PICK:  Michael Crabtree, Oakland
Reaction:  The running back position gets incredibly thin here, so grabbing the 11th best fantasy wide receiver in 2016 is a round three steal. Both Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper finished in the top 14 wide receivers last season and all signs point to an even better Raiders offense in 2017. Crabtree’s 79th percentile Agility Score and 70th percentile Catch Radius equate to quarterback Derek Carr‘s favorite Red Zone target. Bilal Powell in the fourth round is fantasy football insanity regardless of the scoring format. Three Washington players were drafted in this round which means somebody will be very wrong. Tom Brady is wonderful, but taking a quarterback this early is a mistake. He would have to reproduce his 2007 season (4,806 yards, 50 touchdowns, eight interceptions) to justify that pick.

Round 5

PICK:  Rishard Matthews, Tennessee
Reaction:  Despite totaling 98 receiving yards in his first three games last season, Rishard Matthews finished as the 12th best fantasy wide receiver. With Kendall Wright signing in Chicago and the Titans failing to sign a wide receiver in free agency, Matthews has the potential for an even better 2017. This completes my wide receiver corps (Cooper, Crabtree, Matthews) with a players who ranked seventh among all wide receivers with 12 Red Zone Targets. The quarterbacks fly off the board in the fifth round with Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Andrew Luck all getting selected. Still impossible to justify taking a tight end in this round, and Tyreek Hill could either be great or just another Cordarrelle Patterson.

Round 6

PICK:  Danny Woodhead, Baltimore
Reaction: Needed a backup running back and was thrilled to get Danny Woodhead in the sixth round. He is just one year removed from a 13th overall positional finish is standard scoring leagues. In a PPR format he is fantasy gold. Baltimore’s running back situation is currently muddled, and wherever Woodhead has gone he has produced. Picking a tight end in this round is fine, but not Eric Ebron (most receptions in a season is 61) or the touchdown dependent Tyler Eifert. Always wait until later to draft a quarterback, but Russell Wilson as the fourth quarterback selected in this round is great value.

Round 7

PICK:  Martellus Bennett, Green Bay
Reaction: The debate was between the tight end and the quarterback position. Eight quarterbacks were selected before my pick, and having Bennett tethered to Aaron Rodgers was simply too good to pass up. Rodgers has never had a tight end with a 90 reception season on his resume like Bennett. Always a fast starter, it is easy to envision multiple top five tight end weeks during the early games of 2017. This is where the pass-catching running backs flew off the draft board. Dion Lewis, Theo Riddick, and Giovani Bernard all have 60 plus catch ability, but almost as equally high bust opportunity. Example?  Over the past three seasons, Bernard has 15 games of 10 or more fantasy points and 24 games of less than 10 fantasy points. If you can’t figure out when to play him, why waste a draft pick?

Round 8

PICK:  Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia
Reaction: This was my steal of the draft. Jordan Matthews enters his fourth NFL season averaging 75 receptions and 6.3 touchdowns per season. In a Philadelphia offense loaded with weapons, he should feast in the slot (Y) receiver role. Many running backs were drafted in this round, but all with major question marks. Frank Gore will be 34 years old and Adrian Peterson still has not been signed. Jonathan Stewart seems to be the safest among this group, but keep your eye on Carolina at the NFL draft in late April. Wanted to handcuff Danny Woodhead with Kenneth Dixon, but Matthews is a great consolation prize.

Round 9

PICK:  Ameer Abdullah, Detroit
Reaction: I fully admit I’m a bit of an Abdullah truther, but his workout metrics are just incredible. He has a 98th percentile Burst Score and Agility Score, as well as 81st percentile Bench Press (24 reps of 225). The Lions have an explosive offense, play on turf, and Abdullah possesses incredible elusiveness. He has the potential to be even more explosive than Theo Riddick. How far has Jeremy Hill fallen? In a PPR league his ceiling is capped, but with Rex Burkhead now in New England he could still fall in the end zone. Stay away from Paul Perkins. Shane Vereen, Shaun Draughn, and Orleans Darkwa are all better running backs. Perkins is fool’s gold. Matt Forte will be close to 32 years old when the season starts, but is the most talented player in this round by a landslide.

Round 10

PICK:  Matthew Stafford, Detroit
Reaction:  Getting a quarterback who has averaged 635 pass attempts over the last six seasons in the tenth round is a steal in any format. To prove how important it is to wait on quarterback, Derek Carr and Philip Rivers were selected in Round 11. The argument against Zero RB is bolstered here with Tyrell Williams, Randall Cobb, and Jeremy Maclin all available in a PPR format. Isn’t it so easy to see Derrick Henry starting by mid-season? DeMarco Murray has been way too healthy over the past three seasons (one game missed). Biggest upside wide receiver in this round? Baltimore’s Breshad Perriman who is currently their second best receiver behind soon to be 31-year-old Mike Wallace.

Round 11 & 12

PICKS:  Tyler Lockett, Seattle; Alfred Morris, Dallas
Reaction: Most of these are lottery tickets, and I am hoping we were all simply one year off on Tyler Lockett. Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates are still available in rounds 11 and 12, so how can anyone justify drafting Zach Ertz in Round Seven? A bevy of quarterbacks are still available, which makes me question my Stafford selection. Handcuffing Ezekiel Elliott was a must, so getting Alfred Morris here brought a huge sigh of relief.

Round 13 & 14

Summary

Having a top three fantasy draft pick forces a first round running back selection. As long as they are handcuffed, each of those running backs have an extremely high seasonal floor. The running back position thins out quickly after Spencer Ware, so it difficult to project an orthodox zero running back draft strategy. There are some strong team backfields available in the mid to late rounds, but the NFL draft will provide true clarity for teams such as Detroit, Baltimore, and Jacksonville.

There exists a ton of wide receiver value in the middle rounds. Players like Jeremy Maclin, Randall Cobb, and Willie Snead were all available after the eighth round. My biggest mistake was taking Martellus Bennett in round seven. Tight end remains an optimal late round selection again this season. With a nucleus of Ezekiel Elliott, Spencer Ware, Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, and Matthew Stafford, this was certainly a solid first PPR mock draft.