With the 2013 NHL free agent frenzy all but over and the summer lull in full swing, some fans have turned their attention to next year’s UFA class. It’s going to be an interesting one, with lots of big names and lots of implications for the teams involved. While some like Penguins defenseman Kris Letang have already been taken off the market, and many others (including some in this article) are likely to follow suit, there is still no shortage of big names available next summer. Let’s take a look at some of the more interesting questions.
Are the Sharks ready to turn the page? San Jose GM Doug Wilson will have some very tough choices to make, as long-time core players and team leaders Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau and Dan Boyle will all be UFAs. Wilson made it clear with the re-signing of Logan Couture and Joe Pavelski to long-term deals this summer that the Sharks team is theirs for the future. If so, where does that leave Thronton, Marleau and Boyle? Currently they make more than $20 million combined against the cap, and Wilson may have to ask them to take less if he wants to keep them without leaving his roster with some gaping holes. All three are still productive and could be useful to help bridge the gap to the next core of Sharks players, but perhaps not at that same value. All are also likely to receive big offers from other teams, so they may have to take less than market value if Wilson wants them to stay in San Jose.
Who wants a goalie? When it comes to netminders, next year’s crop of UFA’s has some real depth and talent. Among those are Henrik Lundqvist (who will likely be resigned by the Rangers), Ryan Miller, Jonas Hiller, Devan Dubnyk, Evgeni Nabokov and both St. Louis goalies Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliot. Aside from Lundqvist, all of those goalies are, for one reason or another, very questionable to stay with their current teams. It’s very likely that the goalie merry-go-round could take a spin next year with a number of starters ending up in different markets.
Who will be ready to take a pay cut? A few UFAs next year are going to have to take a pretty substantial reduction in salary. Among those are Dany Heatley, the former back to back 50 goal scorer who has seen a fall from grace in recent years. There’s no doubt that Heatley still has some talent, but nobody is going to pay him $7.5 million again, especially considering he hasn’t hit the 30 goal plateau in three years. Another that will likely be forced to take a shave is Thomas Vanek. You’ll recall that Vanek’s $7.1 cap hit was greatly inflated by a failed attempt by the Oilers to sign him to an offer sheet. Like Heatley, Vanek is still a quality scoring forward, plus he has youth on his side. But also like Heatley, Vanek has struggled to live up to his contract, only having a point-per-game season once since 2007. It’s possible that either or both could have a great 2013-14 and increase their value for next summer, but anything over $7 million for either would be extreme.
Are the twins going to stay in Vancouver? I’ll end the suspense, the answer is yes, but there is some intrigue about how Daniel and Henrik Sedin will be signed. When both signed their identical $6.1 million dollar contracts back in 2009, many thought that it was a bit of a home town discount. Since then both have won Art Ross trophies, led the team to the Stanley Cup finals and continue to produce at around a point per game pace. Clearly they were worth much more than they earned. On the other hand, they’ll both be 33 next summer, and have shown a bit of an offensive decline in recent seasons. Will they provide another discount on this contract, or will they go for one last big cash grab before the end of their careers? And if it’s the latter, can Vancouver afford it? In the end I expect a deal will probably get done, but it’s a situation worth keeping an eye on.
Will it be the end of an era? For people of a certain age, the 90’s was a golden era of NHL all-stars, many of whom are now approaching the end of their careers. While some like Teemu Selanne are currently in doubt, there are many others that could be hanging up the skates after one more season. Among them are goaltenders Martin Brodeur and Nikolai Khabibulin, forwards Jaromir Jagr, Daniel Alfredsson, Ray Whitney, Saku Koivu, and Todd Bertuzzi as well as defensemen Kimmo Timonen and Sami Salo. There’s at least a couple sure-fire Hall of Famers in there, and we’re likely to get lots of “will he or won’t he” stories about them before July 1st next year.
How is the market changing? While there are many questions about where players could potentially be headed, something much more intriguing than that is happening. What we’re seeing more and more in the NHL is class division among it’s players. When you look at almost any team’s salary cap structure, there’s starting to be a noticeable gap between the top guys making $5-6+ million and the third/fourth liners who are making considerably less than that. Adding to this complication is the need for “cheaper” young players to fill holes in the line-up. What’s starting to happen, and indeed has been happening for a few years now, is that those young players are getting rewarded with big contracts, forcing veterans out of good salaries and sometimes even their jobs. Refer back to the Sharks if you want to see what I mean. It’ll be very interesting to see if this trend continues in 2014, or whether we’ll see GM’s balancing their salary structure. Then again, if the salary cap skyrockets as it’s expected to by many, all bets are off. Never underestimate a general manger’s greed.
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