Via Last Word On College Football, by Matt Whisnant
The playoff picture is taking shape as the College Football Playoff Committee has unveiled its first rankings of the season. With five unbeaten teams remaining, here are the LWOS Bowl Projections Week 9.
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
CFP Semifinal
#1 Alabama vs. #4 Washington
Fiesta Bowl
CFP Semifinal
#2 Michigan vs. #3 Clemson
National Championship Game
#1 Alabama vs. #2 Michigan
Clemson survived a trip to Tallahassee with a 37 – 34 victory. With Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, and South Carolina left on the slate, the Tigers can wrap up an ACC Championship Game berth for a second consecutive year.
Michigan staved off Michigan State in East Lansing 32 – 23. Sparty hung in with the Wolverines longer than most expected, and the 24.5 point spread was put to bed in the 4th quarter. Michigan gets Maryland, Iowa, and Indiana before the showdown with Ohio State in Columbus.
Washington got its first true test on the road at Utah, which they won. That begs the question: how did they need overtime to beat Arizona? Maybe that was Arizona’s Super Bowl and the high point for the Wildcats.
With the release of the initial College Football Playoff poll, it appears the committee has similar questions about the Huskies. It will take an undefeated season to assure the Pac-12 a representative in the CFP.
Utah had the Huskies on the ropes, all knotted up with 3:25 to go in the game, when Dante Pettis returned a punt for the game-winning touchdown. Washington has the easiest path to the playoff of the four teams projected above. The Apple Cup will be their final test before the Pac-12 title game.
New Years Six Bowls
Rose Bowl
Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Ohio State vs. Washington State
Sugar Bowl
Big 12 vs. SEC
Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M
Capital One Orange Bowl
ACC vs. Big Ten
Louisville vs. Wisconsin
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
At Large vs. At Large
Florida vs. Western Michigan
Explanation
The Big 12 race is coming down to the winner of Bedlam in Week 14. Oklahoma State visits Norman on December 2 with a shot to force a tie atop the conference. The Pokes would take the head-to-head tie breaker and a berth in the Sugar Bowl.
Baylor saw their undefeated season come to an end in Austin. With Texas’ victory over the Bears, I’m sliding Oklahoma into the Big 12 spot for the Sugar Bowl. The Big 12’s national title hopes took a shot when Oklahoma lost in Week 1 to Houston. That loss is no longer carrying the value it once did. The Cougars have fallen out of the Group of Five New Year’s Six conversation.
Which brings us to why Western Michigan is my new Group of Five choice. Boise State lost at Wyoming on a safety 30 – 28. Boise State had been flirting with a loss for weeks, and the Cowboys finally made them pay. Wyoming and San Diego State are setting up for a clash in the Mountain West Football Championship, while the Broncos may have cost themselves a New Year’s spot.
Florida is the only team in the SEC East that seems to realize there is football happening on Saturdays. For Cotton Bowl purposes, I have the Gators in as an at-large team to match up with the WMU Broncos. The Big Ten has two teams in the New Year’s Six Bowls as is, and matching up a Group of Five team with an SEC squad would provide a nice narrative, and maybe a competitive game.
Bowl Season Projections
Outback Bowl
Big Ten vs. SEC
Penn State vs. Auburn
TaxSlayer Bowl
SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten/Notre Dame
Arkansas vs. Miami (FL)
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl
SEC vs. ACC/Big Ten/Notre Dame
Tennessee vs. Nebraska
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC
Northwestern vs. Ole Miss
Hyundai Sun Bowl
ACC/Notre Dame vs. Pac-12
Florida State vs. USC
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Big 12 vs. SEC
TCU vs. Georgia
Arizona Bowl
Mountain West vs. Sun Belt
New Mexico vs. Idaho
Valero Alamo Bowl
Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Oklahoma State vs. Utah
Belk Bowl
ACC vs. SEC
Virginia Tech vs. Kentucky
Birmingham Bowl
AAC vs. SEC
Tulsa vs. South Carolina
AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl
Big 12 vs. SEC
Baylor vs. LSU
Foster Farms Bowl
Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Iowa vs. California
Russell Athletic Bowl
ACC vs. Big 12
UNC vs. West Virginia
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
ACC/Notre Dame vs. Big Ten
Pitt vs. Maryland
Cactus Bowl
Big 12 vs. Pac-12
Texas vs. Stanford
Holiday Bowl
Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Minnesota vs. Colorado
Military Bowl
AAC vs. ACC
Memphis vs. Georgia Tech
Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl
Big Ten vs. C-USA
Texas Tech * vs. North Texas
Camping World Independence Bowl
ACC vs. SEC
Boston College ** vs. Arkansas State *
Quick Lane Bowl
ACC vs. Big Ten
Army ** vs. Indiana
St. Petersburg Bowl
AAC vs. ACC
USF vs. Wake Forest
Hawai’i Bowl
C-USA vs. Mountain West
Old Dominion vs. Colorado State
Dollar General Bowl
MAC vs. Sun Belt
Akron vs. Troy
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
AAC vs. Big 12
Navy vs. Kansas State
Popeyes Bahamas Bowl
C-USA vs. MAC
Southern Mississippi vs. Ohio
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
MAC vs. Mountain West
Toledo vs. Wyoming
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
BYU vs. Mountain West
BYU vs. Air Force
Marmot Boca Raton Bowl
AAC vs. C-USA
Temple vs. Western Kentucky
Miami Beach Bowl
AAC vs. MAC
Houston vs. Eastern Michigan
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
C-USA vs. Sun Belt
Middle Tennessee vs. Appalachian State
AutoNation Cure Bowl
AAC vs. Sun Belt
UCF vs. South Alabama
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
MAC vs. Sun Belt
Central Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
Las Vegas Bowl
Mountain West vs. Pac-12
San Diego State vs. Arizona State
Gildan New Mexico Bowl
C-USA vs. Mountain West
Louisiana Tech vs. Boise State
Explanation
Boston College and Army fill in as APR (Academic Progress Rate) teams. Army might finish 6-6 but with two FCS wins (Lafayette and Morgan State). This would leave them ineligible, but with a high APR, the NCAA could grant them a waiver.
Army hasn’t been bowling since 2010, and while this shouldn’t sway the NCAA, West Point’s best season in six years should be rewarded. If they can pull an upset versus Air Force, Notre Dame, or Navy, they won’t have to worry about waivers.
* = Replacement team
** = APR waiver
