Caution: These Fantasy Players are Less Valuable Than They Appear

It seems as though this fantasy football preseason has been riddled with arguments. Running backs vs wide receivers. “Zero RB” vs “Zero WR.” It’s all personal preference. Do you like to load up on one position and draft a few questionable players in the later rounds in hopes of striking gold, or do you like to just go by the ‘best player available’ mentality? Either way, this season has its fair share of questionable average draft positions (ADP).

The off-season is a long, strenuous time for writers and broadcasters everywhere. Everyone is grasping for a story or for the chance to come across a potential breakout candidate. In the hype of it all, a player’s ADP can be heavily impacted. A player’s value fluctuates throughout the preseason, based on potential roles in the offense, injuries, etc.

This is a list of players to avoid, if they continue at their current ADP come draft day. That italicized point cannot be stressed enough. These are not players to hate per say, but players who, at their current ADP, are not preferred.

Caution: These Fantasy Players are Less Valuable Than They Appear

1. Ezekiel Elliott: Current ADP: 9^th overall

With the recent news of a hamstring injury, Elliott’s ADP will fall out of round one and into the top of round two in most drafts. The risk/reward for a player like Elliott is too uncertain to make him a number one running back on a fantasy team. The Dallas Cowboys may have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, but that doesn’t secure Elliott 20+ touches per game. In order to be a first round pick, a running back needs a few things – the ability to stay healthy and guaranteed touches – neither of which have been proven yet.

Where to be content drafting him: If drafting a running back in round one and being dead set (for whatever reason) on going with two straight running backs, it’s understandable why someone would take him in round two.

2. Devonta Freeman: Current ADP: 17^th overall

The number one overall fantasy running back in 2015 finds himself in somewhat of a running back by committee (RBBC) in 2016. Freeman is a talented, multi-purpose back who makes any offense more potent. In 2015, Freeman finished with 1,600 total yards and 14 touchdowns. But, 754 of those yards and nine of those touchdowns happened in a five-week span. That’s not to take away from the explosiveness that Freeman possesses, but with continuous praise of second-year running back Tevin Coleman, one has to think that the Atlanta Falcons will be host to one of many RBBCs.

Where to be content drafting him: Round two is a little too high for Freeman. The explosiveness is there, but so is the uncertainty. Freeman should be looked at as a strong second option at running back. Don’t draft him expecting 2015 numbers. He will have his break out weeks, just temper expectations.

3. Jamaal Charles: Current ADP: 15^th overall

Charles has been a fantasy keeper for several years. However, that streak is coming to an end. Charles is no longer in that elite group, and it’s because of the uncertainty. See the pattern? In the first two rounds of a draft, a key trait to look for is certainty (touches, games played, etc). Typically, Andy Reid has been a one running back kind of a guy, but the emergence of Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware last year only muddles an already muddled situation even further.

Charles lives off of explosive plays. He ranks number one overall in NFL history in yards per rush, with 5.5. A small-sized running back going into his eight season after his second ACL surgery is a running back one cannot put faith in. Charles could come back and be his old self again. He could show flashes of Olympic-style sprinter speed, and enough agility to jump cut across the line of scrimmage. Or, he could come back slightly hobbled, unable to perform that masterful jump cut and unable to reach that high end speed that he was once able to.

Where to be content drafting him: If he was the second running back on the team, it would be a major win. If one took Adrian Peterson or Todd Gurley in round one and turned around and got Charles in round two, they can be as content as one can be with the running back position.

4. Amari Cooper: Current ADP: 23^rd overall

How does a player who finished 24^th in his position sneak into the early third round of fantasy drafts? Anyone Players who finished ahead of Cooper in 2015: Jordan Matthews (72^nd overall), Tavon Austin (125^th overall), and James Jones (undrafted) to name a few. He’s currently going ahead of Brandon Marshall and in the same breath as Keenan Allen, Alshon Jeffery, and Mike Evans. Those players should be taken before even thinking about touching Cooper. Who had more total yards and touchdowns than Cooper in 2015? Danny Woodhead. Cooper had seven weeks of 10+ fantasy points. He also had seven weeks of four or less fantasy points. Boom or bust?

Where I’d be content drafting him: Cooper is a high-end FLEX play. If you go wide receiver in the first three rounds and Cooper is the guy you grab in the third round, raise your fist in the air, Breakfast Club style.

5. Any Arizona Cardinals Wide Receiver – Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Michael Floyd

Floyd, the highest of the three, is currently going 57^th overall – one spot above Donte Moncrief. Fitzgerald is going 68^th overall and Brown is going 76^th overall. All three of these players have tremendous upside on a week-to-week basis, but good luck predicting who it’s going to be that week. With those three mouths to feed and an emerging David Johnson, Arizona is a fantasy capital.

Where I’d be content drafting them: Any of the three Cardinals receivers would make for great FLEX plays. On any given night, any of these three players can go for 100 yards and a touchdown. The question then becomes: which one? And that’s not a question I like to ask myself when setting a line-up.

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