As I write this, the St. Louis Cardinals continue to have the best record in baseball at 30-16 on the year. This record has largely been built on a starting rotation that has performed amongst the best in the majors this season, a very good offence, and solid defensive play. The Cardinals +59 run differential is also the best in baseball.
However recent events have started to threaten the stability of that stellar starting rotation. Left-hander Jaime Garcia requires shoulder surgery and has been lost for the year. Garcia was really pitching well for St. Louis with a 5-2 record, and 3.58 ERA, and 1.30 WHIP. His loss is a major blow to the club.
This was followed by news that Jake Westbrook is having issues with his elbow, and that his rehab stint with a side bullpen session on Wednesday had to be cut short due to continued soreness. Westbrook is currently on the disabled list, and the Cardinals have made due in the meantime, but long term they may face some big questions if Westbrook can not return.
All of this comes on the heels of losing Chris Carpenter in spring training. While recent news on Carpenter and a possible return is encouraging, the fact remains that he is not going to be the same Chris Carpenter who dominated opposing hitters, was fantastic in big games, and won Cy Young Awards. In fact the suggestion has already been made that if Carp is to pitch at all, it will be out of the bullpen.
So where does that leave the Cardinals? Well first we should look at what is left for the staff.
Adam Wainwright is the workhorse. He’s been as good as any pitcher in the majors this year. As long as he stays healthy, he’s money in the bank, and the clear ace here. I think we all get the picture of his dominance and we really don’t need to get too deep into how important Wainright is to the Cards, so let’s move on.
In the number 2 spot we have Lance Lynn who won 18 games in his first year as a starter and is 6-1 this year. He has a 3.27 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. I think its now fair to say that Lynn’s late season struggles last year were the result of running out of gas at the end of a long season, and not a sign that his 2012 season was a fluke. He’s been great in 2013 and after last season likely has the stamina to throw more innings this year. I think the Cards are in good shape here.
In the number 3 hole we have Shelby Miller. The toast of St. Louis, and the major leagues right now, the rookie starter is 5-3, with a 1.74 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Given the fabulous ERA and WHIP, his record could clearly be a lot better than 5-3 with just a little more luck. Miller has long been considered a top prospect for the Cards, and we are now seeing why this is the case. The concern here is the same we see with almost all young pitchers. As a rookie starter, how many starts and innings does he have in him? How will he react to pressure down the stretch? That said, the early returns are fantastic, and I don’t think that Cards fans have much to worry about here, either.
Here is where things get interesting. Although we have a solid top 3, we already are starting to see a lack of experience there. In the group, we have a 2nd year starter (3rd year major leaguer) and a rookie starter (who had some experience last season, but he’s basically a rookie). This rotation is very talented, but also very young, and lacking in experience. As we move on to the 4th and 5th starters, this concern only grows.
John Gast, and Tyler Lyons are a pair of Left-handers who started the season in the minor leagues but have been called up after the injuries to Garcia and Westbrook. The early returns are promising as they are 3-0 in their first three starts combined, and both have looked brilliant. But the question must be asked, can a rotation with 3 rookies, and a 4th pitcher who is a 2nd year starter really lead the Cardinals to the playoffs and to compete for the World Series? Despite having the best record in the majors, it must be remembered that both the Cincinatti Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates continue to nip at the Cardinals’ heels.
What we do know is that if there is one thing the Cardinals aren’t short on, its quality young arms, as Joe Kelly is also available (and currently in the bullpen) if another starter is needed. However he is another young pitcher with limited Major League experience. There are also a number of Pitchers in the Cardinals AA and AAA system such as Michael Wacha, and Carlos Martinez, who may be ready to fill in if needed in the short term.
However the question remains, if Jake Westbrook can’t come back to add some experience to the bottom of the rotation, are the Cards prepared to ride such a young rotation all season long? Or does this contender go shopping for an experienced starter to anchor the rotation? For John Mozeliak, this will be the big question he faces in June and July.
Can a staff rely on a dominant ace and all young, inexperienced starters behind him, and ride this pitching through 162 games and the playoffs? Or does Westbrook’s injury and Garcia’s loss force the Cardinals hands here? We’d like to hear your thoughts on this one, please feel free to leave your comments below.
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Photo Credit: Ryan Kelly, Baseballnewshound.com, CC
