When the dust settled on the USMNT‘s second group game in Copa America Centenario on Tuesday night, things seemed much more serene among fans of the Stars and Stripes.
It’s an expected side effect of the result. The Yanks emphatically defeated Costa Rica 4-0 to temporarily assuage fears of a group stage exit after just two games. That became a real possibility if the US lost to the Ticos four days after they fell to Colombia 2-0 in the tournament’s opening match.
But the favorable result in Chicago, combined with Colombia’s 2-1 win over Paraguay, means that the US is now second in Group A. They trail Los Cafateros, who’ve already qualified for the quarterfinals, by three points. Lurking just two points behind are Paraguay and Costa Rica. Those two have a point apiece after they played to a scoreless draw in Orlando, FL last Saturday.
It’s deceptively easy for the outlook to go from wretched to rosy after such a dominating performance. Everything seemed to be clicking on both sides of the field. Clint Dempsey converted an early penalty. Bobby Wood scored the kind of goal you come to expect out of a striker known for his hold-up play. Jermaine Jones found the net himself and was all over the field. And Graham Zusi showed that this is a team with goal-scoring quality off the bench when he put the icing on the cake in the 87th minute.
But make no mistake about it. There is still much work to be done if the USMNT wants to qualify for the quarterfinals. Standing in their way on Saturday at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA will be a game Paraguay squad.
Both sides are well-aware of the stakes. Simply put, a win for either team means they’re into the final eight of the tournament. For the US, they still have a chance to win the group should they come out victorious and Colombia falters against Costa Rica.
This is due to the fact that the first tiebreaker if teams are even on points is goal difference. The Yanks are merely a goal behind Colombia in that category (a function of their rout of Costa Rica). So regardless of the scoreline, if both the US and Costa Rica are victorious on Saturday, it would be the Red, White and Blue who would emerge unlikely winners of Group A.
As optimistic as that scenario is, there’s also the other side of the coin. What if the US is unable to salvage a draw at the very least out of this looming matchup with La Albirroja? It would essentially render Tuesday’s four-goal rout all for naught. Paraguay would leapfrog the US in the Group A standings. Regardless of the result between Colombia and Costa Rica, it would be game over for the USMNT’s Copa America aspirations.
With that in mind, there is certainly much to play for this weekend. Jurgen Klinsmann‘s side has every opportunity to finish the job, get a result and come within one game of his stated goal of reaching the semifinals. What are some of the things to keep an eye on Saturday as the US attempts to keep that goal alive?
Copa America: USMNT Not Out of the Woods Just Yet
Managing the Yellow Card Situation
Alejandro Bedoya, John Brooks and Fabian Johnson have all been cautioned during the US’ first two games. That means they’re just one more yellow card away from being forced to miss the quarterfinals should the team get there. Does that force Klinsmann’s hand in making some lineup changes after putting out the same 11 in consecutive games for the first time since 2014?
Of those three, Bedoya might be the easiest to replace. Klinsmann could bring in Zusi who came in as a sub against Costa Rica and scored as mentioned earlier. 17-year-old wunderkind Christian Pulisic is also an option. But do you want a player with his dearth of experience at international level to make the first start of his career in a game with this much on the line? Expect Pulisic to come off the bench if he does see the field.
Johnson and Brooks could be missed the most if they don’t start.
Despite being slotted in a more withdrawn role than he’s used to playing for his club team Borussia Monchengladbach, Johnson’s been highly effective at left back for the US. This was particularly true against Costa Rica when he was given much more free rein to push into the attack and overlap. He also leads the team with 19 recoveries. A lot of that could be due to opposing teams concentrating their attack down his flank. Nevertheless, he’s had a good tournament thus far.
Brooks has arguably been the better of the centerbacks for the USMNT. Geoff Cameron was much improved against Costa Rica but his mistake in man-marking contributed to Colombia’s opening goal. If Klinsmann decides to rest the Hertha Berlin defender against Paraguay, will we see Matt Besler get his first action of Copa America?
How To Deal with What Paraguay Brings to the Table
Paraguay comes into this game and the tournament as a whole not riding a whole lot of success. They’ve won just three of their previous 16 games going back to last year’s Copa America. Those wins came against Jamaica, Venezuela, and Bolivia, not exactly the most heralded of opponents. They currently sit seventh in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying
But that’s not to say the US can take this team lightly. Paraguay employs a gritty, physical style of play and will be tough to break down at the back. La Albirroja also have plenty of exciting, young attacking players including Derlis Gonzalez, Dario Lezcano and Jorge Benitez.
Though Gonzalez didn’t play against Colombia, he was one of the few bright spots in Paraguay’s opening match against Costa Rica. Gonzalez’s quality in the final third was on display despite the goalless draw. He created two of Paraguay’s five chances on the day and one of two from open play.
And despite the loss to Colombia in their previous match, Paraguay was dangerous, particularly in the second half. Victor Ayala, who was a halftime sub, scored one of the goals of the tournament in the 71st minute to halve the Paraguayan deficit. This side’s never-say-die attitude was on full display. And the US will need to put forth a 90 minute effort if they want to get a desired result.
Manager Ramon Diaz, like Klinsmann, has been under fire of late. This is a team six years removed from a quarterfinal appearance at the 2010 World Cup where they lost to eventual champions Spain. Four years later, Paraguay missed the tournament entirely after a disastrous qualifying campaign that saw them finish last in South American qualifying. It was in this turmoil where Diaz took over. And despite finishing fourth at last year’s Copa America, the pressure is on for him to deliver.
The Unique Pressure Associated with the Group Finale
Earlier in the week, Klinsmann described Saturday’s contest as a “knockout game.” Though not one in the traditional sense, there’s no doubt it’s “win or go home” for both these squads. While it’s true the US needs just a draw to advance, playing for such a result is counterproductive and could backfire. With an outside opportunity at winning the group, three points or bust should be the mentality.
The pressure associated with such raised stakes shouldn’t be anything new for this team. Tuesday’s match against Costa Rica was arguably similar in terms of the pressure. The US knew that a loss meant a humiliating elimination from contention and they delivered a sensational performance. Another effort will be required in Philly.
On two occasions this year have the USMNT followed up a disastrous 2-0 loss with a 4-0 shellacking of their next opponent. The first was in March when they were upset by Guatemala on the road in World Cup qualifying, They followed that up with a dominant game against the same team in Columbus. You certainly can’t doubt that this is a resilient bunch.
On Saturday, resiliency will need to be replaced with ability to maintain momentum. The US gained a great deal of it after spanking Costa Rica. Whether or not they can keep the ball rolling could be the difference between getting out of the group and watching the rest of this tournament from home.
