The big game approaches. Perhaps the Six Nations decider is this weekend down at England rugby HQ, Twickenham. At four o’clock the battle of red and white begins.
UP FRONT
The battle of the forwards will be personified by the battle of the back-row. Vunipola vs. Faletau will be the key battle and if Wales can stop the big number eight from making yards then we can annihilate England’s attacking options from the start. The front row will be interesting to watch with both coaching set-ups putting pressure on the other teams props to perform legally. England have called Wales scrummaging ”illegal” and the welsh have called out Joe Marler as being the weak link in the chain and so the referee and his linesmen will have a handy day at the office in keeping order at scrum down.
This has mounted huge pressure on to the officials and so don’t expect a fast flowing game in that department; although is there ever a fast scrum these days?
The back row will be key to victory as perhaps Wales have the slight edge, but it is potentially the decider on England’s backs scoring or our back row scoring. If either side can combat the opposition back rowers then they should be in for a good match. Haskell for Lydiate should be a battle of the veteran tacklers and so it should be all tight on the blindside. On the openside the difference between Warburton and Robshaw is massive. Robshaw is looking slow and sluggish this tournament, whereas Sam is looking sharp, despite only just returning after a long lay-off. This will be the key position up front as it will determine how much ball gets to either sides back line, which if it is a lot of ball, then England would surely be favorites. This is why The Welsh captain has to keep the ball up front for as long as possible. Faletau taking on the man mountain in B.Vunipola will be the clash of the match as the two best numbers eights in northern rugby battle head on. Both have been immense for the country this year and so whoever shuts the other down will probably have a large and influential say on how the game ends.
OUT BACK
The backs are arguably in favor of England as they have scored more tries in the 2016 Six Nations and have looked a lot more fluent in recent weeks than the welsh back-line who at best have been quiet. This is why keeping the ball up front for Wales is vital in victory. Having two half backs in Ford at fly half and Farrell at inside centre ,England can control the game a lot more , but if the Welsh backs like North, Cuthbert and especially Roberts get the ball often enough then the mighty dragons can roar down the ten-twelve channel with ”up the jumper” tactics to smash through the smaller backs.
Kicking for territory and ball retention will also bend the winning sides way. Biggar and Farrell are some of the best in the game at this and if they can get up and under their own kicks or get their back-line under high ball, points will be yielded via penalties at worst. However it is then up to the backs to finish the product that their kickers have just got them.
THREE KEYS
- BACK-ROW BATTLE: – The six men who start at six to eight in this match could well decide the winners and so you have to shut your opposing number down as quickly as possible in order to gain full advantage. Do this and you will nearly be guaranteed success. This will not only shut down the backs of England but destroys their kicking game as highlighted above. This does however put a heavier emphasis on the scrum which has been mauled to death in the build up media conferences and so look out for more penalties and free kicks at scrum time.
- POWER: – Jamie Roberts is renowned for his smash mouth style rugby, charging right down the throat of his opposite man and with England having smaller men than Wales in their backs, they must utilize this to our advantage. Get Roberts running down the channel of space (not at the man) between the fly half and the inside centre. This will draw two men in, but also leaves huge room out wide to get the ball to North and Cuthbert. If the doctor breaks the tackles and he runs through to where Mike Brown should be waiting, by this point they should have accumulated men to offload to and under the sticks Wales go.
- BALL RETENTION: – Dan Biggar is the best in the game at sending up a Hail Mary and coming away with ball in hand. If the Welsh do this all game against a young and inexperienced England side then look for a game based around the set piece play. England are slow to react to this high ball tactics it seems and so get penalties off it, kick for corner and regain as platform. Look for this to feature heavily in the game. The winners of the kicking game will be on the golden path to victory in my eyes.
Look for a tightly controlled game by Wales with lots of high ball and scrums and line-outs. This will give a solid platform to work off, providing they isolate key English players.
My prediction is that if Wales do all this then they can repeat the performance from Cardiff a few years back where they came out on top by 30-3. However this is at Twickenham and Wales don’t look as sharp as back then, so look for a tight game, ravaged by penalties which will end with Wales winning by four points.
ENGLAND VS. WALES
4.00PM KO
SATURDAY 12TH MARCH.
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