Another Grand Slam and another Novak Djokovic vs Roger Federer match, in fact it’s the third major in a row they’re playing against one another. However unlike at Wimbledon and New York last year, it’s not for the title. This time it is only a place in the final against British #1 Andy Murray or the #13 seed Milos Raonic in which the winner of this will surely go into the final as the favourite.
The rivalry which started at the Monte-Carlo Masters in 2006, currently stands at an astonishing 22 wins each with the World #1 getting the last laugh in the World Tour Finals championship match last year with a comprehensive 6-3 6-4 win.
For the most part in their recent slam matches the 17 time Grand Slam champion has failed to convert his chances and ended up on the losing side. At Wimbledon in 2014, despite saving a championship point in the 4th set, the Swiss failed to convert break points in the 5th set when it looked like his opponent was there for the taking. The following year he couldn’t convert several set points in the first set and then at the US Open he really outplayed the Serb but just didn’t finish points well enough against a subpar Djokovic.
But what really makes tomorrow’s match more interesting is that it’s not a final, but their first Grand Slam semi-final in four years. To many this won’t mean much, but it seems Federer is at his best when he doesn’t allow the situation to get to him. At the O2 Arena last year in the Round Robin stages, he produced a masterclass of a performance to beat the 10 time Grand Slam champion 7-5 6-2 and ended his 23 match winning streak. He managed to not even play at half that level in the final and lost in straight sets. It’s almost more of an advantage for the Swiss knowing that since it’s a semi-final there’s less to lose and could lead to a better and more relaxed free swinging performance.
So far this tournament you can also argue that Federer has been the more impressive of the two. Despite losing a set to Grigor Dimitrov in round three, the 34 year old has come through his round four and quarter final matches without dropping a set. Federer was particularly impressive against David Goffin where the former #1 hit 39 winners to just 20 unforced errors to come through only losing 7 games.
Against Frenchman Gilles Simon, Djokovic put in his worst slam match in recent memory but still got the win in five sets despite hitting 100 unforced errors. He said he had to improve post-match and things looked better against Kei Nishikori in his quarter final match, but he is still yet to reach top gear as currently it doesn’t look like his level is going to cut it against the third seed.
Since Djokovic broke the top 10 in the middle of 2007, the pair have played at the Australian Open twice in 2008 and 2011- Djokovic won both in straight sets. They were also both semi-finals and at night, where the conditions are slower and favour the five-time champion just like they will tomorrow. Despite the court being faster than previous years it’s still very much slower than Wimbledon, Cincinnati and the US Open last year where Federer at the very least took a set in them encounters. In such conditions just asking Federer to hit through Djokovic in a best of three set match is asking a lot, let alone best of five. But if grand slam number 18 is going to come on Sunday he’s going to somehow have to do it.
Considering how tight the head to head between both men is the Serb has never held a winning record against the Swiss, in fact at one stage he was 7 behind. But when you look at Djokovic’s Australian Open record, especially since 2011 and how he’s only lost one match to Stan Wawrinka in 2014, he’s the huge favourite to lead the rivalry after the match. Federer has spoken many times since his last slam win at Wimbledon 2012 about how nice another grand slam would be but right now his biggest chances for that 18th slam come at Wimbledon and the US Open.
The former four-time champion may well beat his great rival tomorrow but the odds are stacked heavily against him. We all know he can still produce mind blowing tennis even at 34 years of age, but the real question is if he will and for how long he’ll keep it up for. Plus only a few weeks a go in Doha, the defending champion looked lacklustre until the final where he put on one of the best performances of his career against Rafael Nadal. Perhaps he’ll up his game hugely for the occasion tomorrow in which case on plexicushion in these conditions he’s near unbeatable.
Main Photo:
