A popular tennis meme (or possibly infographic) that circulated around Twitter on Monday showed the world a young Roger Federer and an even younger Rafa Nadal cheesing for a picture. Above the smiling champions was a disheartened Maria Sharapova. The meme served reminder that the last time Sharapova had beaten Serena Williams, Federer was only on his 4th Slam championship and Rafa had yet to win one. The startling fact that Sharapova’s last win over Williams was 13 slam wins ago for Federer was a sobering reality for many.
What has long been one of the most discussed rivalries in tennis has been characterized by a lopsided win total in Williams’ favor.(18-2). When one looks at the matches over the past 12 years and digs deeper into the scoreline, one sees that beyond the wins, Sharapova hasn’t even won a set off of Serena since 2013, a long match at Miami where Serena lost the first set 6-4, but then marched through the match systematically including bageling Sharapova in the 3rd 6-0.
With not much success against Williams, the tennis world still clamors for this matchup. When the seeds were released prior to the Australian Open, many tennis fans and experts openly wished for a quarterfinal match up between the two future hall-of-famers, and their wish was granted. With Serena having not completed a full competitive match since the US Open (Hopman Cup is exhibition) many figured Serena would still be physically rounding into form, while still suffering from the emotional hangover of disappointment from failing to capture the calendar year Grand Slam. If there was ever an opportunity for Sharapova, now seemed like the time. However, for how authoritative Sharapova has been in marching her way into the quarterfinals, Serena has been equally, if not more so, impressive. Both players enter the match up fit, striking the ball well, and still fiercely competitive. In Sharapova’s 2nd set hiccup to Lauren Davis in the 3rd round, one could continually see that trademark fist grip that Sharapova does when trying to psyche herself to victory. Her thumb clinched tightly on top. A small pull of the arm back as she would yell “come on.” Serena too, although with an easier root, has had her trademark fight. The deep bends and collapses towards the court as she yells to the ground. This fierceness of the two is one reason that people still care about this rivalry that hasn’t been competitive. Tennis fans know that both will fight to the bitter end regardless of outcome or previous results.
If Sharapova is to win tonight over Williams. She will need to serve well and not double fault. Sharapova served 21 aces in her 4th round match against the talented Swiss Belinda Bencic, with only 7 double faults. In her aforementioned 3rd round match, Sharapova hit 16. These are all time highs for Sharapova in aces per match. A good sign that she has worked hard in the off season to improve the shot that has often failed her over the past four seasons. Serena will need to continue to outpace her unforced errors by hitting winners in big numbers. Going into the match Serena has a +30 margin in winners to unforced errors. Another sign that Williams hasn’t missed a beat in recuperating from her 2015 season.
With both players looking incredibly sharp during their 2016 slam debuts, it will most decidedly come down to the intangible moments and qualities of the match that will decide the winner. The balls that are retrieved for running winners from 3 feet off the court. The stab drop volleys off passing shots that should have been winners. The aces that stave off break points and keep the match on serve. All of these intangibles that both players are so excellent at providing for the tennis audience are what continue to make this lopsided rivalry so interesting and important for the WTA tour. If Sharapova serves well. If she continues to be healthy and cover the court as well defensively as she has this tourney, and if she is able to continue to move forward into the court to put pressure on Williams during the rally, then there is real hope for her. If ever there was ever a time for Sharapova to break the losing streak, now would be that time. Sharapova is battled tested and her will has been greatly resolved this Open. Williams has been impressive, but hasn’t had to battle anyone with the mental presence or game that Sharapova brings to the table tonight. With players of such high quality, the streak statistically has to end at some point, and with the way the aggressive Russian has played leading into the tourney, tonight may just be that opportunity.
Main Photo: MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA – JANUARY 24: Maria Sharapova of Russia in action during her fourth round match against Belinda Bencic of Switerland during day seven of the 2016 Australian Open at Melbourne Park on January 24, 2016 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Recep Sakar/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
