The following is a review of my first 2013 Draft (ok, the first one that I think that matters) for fantasy baseball. I joined the The Good Phight [TGP] Yahoo League which is run by the good folks who contribute to the Philadelphia Phillies, as part of the SB Nation series of sites. This is a 14 team, mixed-league snake draft. Given that the majority of those on SB Nation are heavily into sabermetrics, the league uses the following scoring categories in a 5X5 format:
Hitting: RBI, HR, OBP, SLG, NSB (SB – Caught)
Pitching: K, ERA, WHIP QS, NSV (SV – Blown)
Offensively the league has replaced runs, stolen bases and batting average and replaced them with on-base percentage, slugging percentage and revised the stolen bases category to score by net stolen bases (SB – CS). I had to adjust some of my rankings accordingly due to the scoring categories.
For pitching the league retained strikeouts, ERA and WHIP but wins and saves have been replaced by quality starts and net saves (S – BS). The elimination of wins as a category really changes the dynamic for this league in terms of fantasy baseball. By using quality starts vs. wins the league has increased the value of every starting pitcher available, since you can have a quality start without winning.
The random draft order gave me the second pick. Let’s take a look at who I ended up with on my roster:
1. Miguel Cabrera(Det – 3B): After Mike Trout was taken 1st overall, I decided to take Cabrera over Ryan Braun. This is the first pick and I figure I should take the best offensive player in this scoring format. Cabrera offers everything but stolen bases, and doesn’t come with the PED questions (and possible suspension) that comes with Braun. Cabrera also is on a team with a great offense with either Victor Martinez or Prince Fielder batting behind him. I had no problems taking last years triple crown winner, and had I had the 1st overall pick I may have taken Cabrera over Trout in this scoring format.
2. Bryce Harper(Was – OF): I may have reached a bit of Harper, but I think this shows how bullish I am about Harper’s potential going into 2013. I took Harper here because based on the draft order I knew there wasn’t going to be another opportunity to draft him without using one of my next two picks. He simply wasn’t going to make back down to me. Harper has all the potential to contribute across the board and excel. A risky pick with my 2nd pick but I have faith that Harper’s stats will be much better than his 2012 numbers. I was planning on taking Hanley Ramirez here but he was taken by the owner ahead of me.
3. José Reyes(Tor – SS): Imagine my surprise when Starlin Castro went ahead of Reyes. I had every intention of taking Matt Cain here in this spot, but when the player selected Castro (I really thought he was going to take Reyes) I jumped at the change. There were still many starting pitchers on the board so I opted to take a player at a thin position. Reyes should be the top short stop by the end of this season. He is likely hitting leadoff for what appears to be an offensive juggernaught in Toronto.
4. Yu Darvish(Tex – SP): Ok, so I didn’t get Justin Verlander, Stephen Strasburg, Clayton Kershaw, Matt Cain or David Price. I think Darvish is going to put up numbers similiar to those players and may surpass some this year. Had I drafted Cain or another SP earlier, I probably would have considered Darvish in this spot. There is potential for a low WHIP, ERA and high strikeout numbers from Darvish.
5. R.A. Dickey(Tor – SP): He posted a league best 27 quality starts last season and there is little to say that Dickey can’t do it again this year for the Toronto Blue Jays.
6. Yovani Gallardo(Mil – SP): While he didn’t win that many games, in this league it doesn’t matter. Gallardo was a bargin in this spot considering he posted 25 quality starts for the Brewers last season.
7. Shin-Soo Choo(Cin – OF): Choo marked the spot where I started to fill out my roster. I like the prospect of Choo playing for the Cincinnati Reds. He’ll provide speed and some power, while contributing a solid OBP.
8. Miguel Montero(Ari – C): Buster Posey, Carlos Santana and a few other catchers had gone ahead. I picked up Montero in the hopes of not having a bottom tier catcher on my roster. Montero isn’t the best, but he is far from the worst.
9. Joe Nathan(Tex – RP): The closers started going off the board, but there were still many players taking positional options. I started to go against the flow of the draft here and with my next three picks went for closers. I tried to stick to teams that would provide ample opportunity for their closers, while also considering the stablity of the players. Nathan, Putz and Romo are all solidified in their roles and should contribute to my net saves total.
10. J.J. Putz(Ari – RP): Has been a solid closer for the past two seasons. I like consistency in closers.
11. Sergio Romo(SF – RP): Will finally get a chance to close in San Francisco, replacing Brian Wilson.
12. Neil Walker(Pit – 2B): There aren’t many players I would take from the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup outside of Andrew McCutchen, but Neil Walker may be one of them. I still think there is upside to Walker.
13. Adam Eaton(Ari – OF): Could be the next Mike Trout and has played well enough in spring training to warrent the 13th pick.
14. Justin Morneau(Min – 1B): I think Morneau could have a bounce back year. Even if the power numbers aren’t there, Morneau should provide a decent OBP and Slugging numbers.
15. Jason Grilli(Pit – RP): My fourth closer, but one I know is risky. Grilli showed some stuff last year, but how much faith can you really have in a guy who made the majors in the mid-30s? This is gamble that I hope works out.
16. Ichiro Suzuki(NYY – OF): If there is anything I can say about Ichiro it is that he is consistent. I don’t expect huge things from Ichiro this year, but if he manages to contribute to my net stolen bases and OBP I am not going to complain.
17. Torii Hunter(Det – OF): This was a bit of a value pick. I think Hunter might have a resurgence this year batting lead off for the Detroit Tigers.
18. Adam Lind(Tor – 1B): Lind is actually a player on my “risky but target” list. After watching some of the Jays spring training action, I think this was an ok pick. If Lind gets consistent this could be one of the best values in this years draft.
19. Hyun-Jin Ryu(LAD – SP): Starting to think I may have gone a bit overboard on the Asian representation (Darvish, Choo and Ichiro are also on this roster). Ryu has earned a spot in the Dodgers rotation and while he didn’t perform well in some of the teams physical drills, his stuff on the mound during spring training games have been impressive. I would say that Ryu could be the dark horse in the NL Rookie of the Year race.
20. Logan Morrison(Mia – 1B,OF): LoMo was inconsistent last year and has since faded in the minds of some fantasy owners. I still think there is enough potential there to say that Morrison could thrive this season during the Marlin’s rebuilding season(s).
21. Jason Vargas(LAA – SP): Vargas contributed enough quality starts to warrent a pick here. With limited options, I choose the one that provided a decent number of quality starts.
22. Drew Stubbs(Cle – OF): How Stubbs fell this much is a bit of a mystery to me, but I was more than happy to take him here. Hopefully he has learned to steal bases in a more efficient manner during the off-season.
23. Matt Carpenter(StL – 1B,3B,OF): I have had a bit of man-crush on Matt Carpenter since last season and decided I would target him in a late round this year. This is all before the Cardinals decided to see of Carpenter could play 2nd base. If Carpenter wins the spot and gains the eligibility, he would be among the most versitile players in fantasy baseball and may provide even better numbers than Ben Zobrist who was taken in the 5th round.
24. Jonny Venters(Atl – RP): This was me just making a run at Greg Kimbrel’s understudy. Venters really has no value in this league, in fact setup men (8th inning relievers) have a lower value in this league than any other league I play in because of the net save category. These guys have an opportunity to give you a negative net save, without actually have save opportunities. Is it wrong for me to hope that Kimbrel does down to injury?
25. Jurickson Profar(Tex – Util): This was a pick made so I can stash Profar away until he is called up by Texas sometime in June. I don’t see Profar making it to the bigs out of spring training. Profar’s value comes from his ability to steal and I’m willing to stash him away until he gets up to the bigs.
26. Danny Hultzen(Sea – SP): Hultzen is the Mariners top pitching prospect and could make a solid contribution this year.
27. Luis Cruz(LAD – 3B,SS): A flyer pick meant to support the team in case of injury.
28. Eduardo Núñez(NYY – 3B,SS): A flyer pick meant to support the team in case of injury.
Overall, I like my team. The OF could use a bit of an upgrade (especially if Tori Hunter doesn’t work out). I went with a mix of young and old. I think there is more potential on this team than proven value, but I also think I got some great bargins late in the draft. The next draft up for me is a 16 team mix-league, dynasty league draft.
Got some thoughts on my team…leave them below.
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