Once upon a time, the NBA defined superstars by their scoring. As long as anyone can remember, the profile of the league’s stars was defined by their scoring output. The Michael Jordan era defined a generation of volume isolation scorers trying to mimic their hero. The Steph Curry generation might follow the lead of their deep shooting idol.
That being said, scoring is not the be all end all anymore. It never really has been. Defense is equally important, and good defense almost always equals good offensive opportunities. Thanks to the brilliance of metrics what is valued in play, what is seen and what teams are willing to pay for is defined differently. Two way players are the way of the future, and this is why Jimmy Butler’s ascendance is so important. A player so equally valuable at both ends, the former Marquette product is blossoming into not only a true superstar in the league but the best all around shooting guard in basketball.
Chicago was always Derrick Rose’s. It was undeniable. The city’s biggest talisman since the greatest of all time wearing the number 23, Rose was the next in line. He was the man to lead the Bulls back to the promise land, as their Championship drought stretches into 18 years since they were spoiled through the 1990’s.
But injuries, comments of looking forward to free agency and an all around lack of effort on Rose’s part to recover from long term injury concerns have left fans and parts of the Bulls organization frustrated. The most loved of all current Bulls is no longer so, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the rest of his current 2-year, $41 million contract unloaded if Chicago can find a trade partner.
Not many could have predicted the 5-year, $94.8 million extension signed in 2011 would turn out to be an albatross for the Bulls. Then again not many would have predicted Butler’s rise from a rugged defender and limited offensive player into a genuine two way superstar either.
Butler emerged as a tough and versatile defender, and is one of the few men in the NBA confident when guarding LeBron James and many other elite wings. Last season saw his emergence as a scorer and the potential leader of his franchise. Look at the jumps in his basic stats, per Basketball Reference:
- 2013/14: 13.1ppg (40-28-77 shooting splits), 4.9rpg, 2.6apg, 1.9spg, 1.5tpg
- 2014/15: 20.0ppg (46-38-83 shooting splits), 5.8rpg, 3.3apg, 1.8spg, 1.4tpg
- 2015/16: 22.6ppg (45-33-83 shooting splits), 5.1rpg, 4.2, 1.8spg, 2.0tpg
On a basic level that shows a steady improvement, whilst sacrificing a bit of efficiency due to increased usage. Butler has improved as a playmaker, and his explosion in January is most likely the best measure of his fast improvement. This month, the Bulls star man has averaged 27.7ppg (on 47-36-85 shooting splits), 5.6rpg, 6.4apg, 1.4spg and 2.3tpg. This may be a sign of things to come, with Butler flourishing under increased responsibility and usage.
Butler is also averaging career highs in PER, assist percentage, block percentage, usage rate, offensive box plus minus and total box plus minus, while being on track to smash his career best win shares total. These go to his total improvement as an all around player who hasn’t sacrificed on defense to improve on offense, which is a very tricky task to master when increasing your workload on heavy minutes.
Some might ask what about Klay Thompson or James Harden? Either are a fair comparison with the two of those players the premier shooting guards in the league at present. But a breakdown of their statistics and metrics show that Thompson is not quite the equal of Butler as a two way player, even if he is a superior deep range shooter. Meanwhile Harden’s deficiencies defensively and proneness to turnovers kill his efficiency. Let’s take a look further at these metrics, per Basketball Reference.
To put Harden’s turnover struggles into context, he is averaging 6.2 turnovers per 100 possessions. Might not seem like a lot, until you compare it to Butler’s (2.6) and Thompson’s (2.8). 4.7 turnovers per game is an ugly statistic for Houston’s star man.
A lot of people will be quick to claim that Harden is the best player of the three and it is no contest simply because he is the superior individual scorer. Is that really true though? Harden might seem an offensive juggernaut, and the Rockets post an offensive rating of 110 with him on the floor. Thompson’s is superior, with 112. Butler’s though? 117.
Defensively Butler wins again posting a rating of 102, with Harden and Thompson posting ratings of 107 and 106 respectively. When it comes to net rating Chicago is 15 points better with Butler on the floor, Thompson makes Golden State 6 points better and Harden a mere 3.
Butler’s the only one of the three with a defensive plus minus that is positive (0.7) whilst Harden (-0.6) and Thompson (-2.6) are harming their teams on that end. Finally Butler also leads the three in every win share category, even offensively. The argument that he is behind the other two in the shooting guard ranks grows thinner and thinner.
Jimmy Butler is now officially the best shooting guard in basketball. Measure it in any way, use any comparison the end result is the same. Two way players are the way of the future and Butler is at the forefront of that. Now whether the Bulls can surround him with the requisite talent to push on to challenge the likes of Cleveland in the Eastern Conference is their next task.
