The half-way mark in the NHL season is usually a time when the strengths and weaknesses of a club have been fully exposed, giving not only team executives but also fans time to ruminate on where their franchise needs to improve in the frantic final half of the season.
The LWOS hockey department has done the same, taking a division-by-division snapshot of where each team is at at the mid-way point of the 2015-16 season, and where they are heading as a result.
Next up, the Pacific Division, brought to you by Ken Hill (@LWOSPuckHead), Markus Meyer (@Markus_Meyer27) and Dave Gove (@LAKingsDave).
The NHL at the Half: Pacific Division
1. Los Angeles Kings (25-12-2) 52 Points, +18 Goal Differential
Surprises: Most of the big names for the Kings have been playing well this season so there haven’t been too many surprises. However, of late Brayden McNabb has really stepped up his game on the backend and seems to finally be turning into the shutdown defender the Kings had hoped they were getting from Buffalo last year. While his offensive production has been limited, playing alongside Drew Doughty has meant McNabb has had to be more responsible in his own end, allowing Doughty to skate the puck up the ice more.
Disappointments: It’s hard not to be disappointed in Dustin Brown and his four goals this season. Brown’s production has noticeably dropped off in recent years, but he still manages to do a lot of little things well other than scoring. However, nobody should be making the money he makes and be on pace for less than 10 goals on the year. Another disappointment for the Kings this season has been Christian Ehrhoff. The German defenseman’s -7 is the worst of all Kings blueliners. For a puck moving, offensively skilled defenseman, you would also expect more than just two goals through the midway point of the season.
Outlook: The Kings five-game winning streak was just snapped in Colorado on Monday night, but overall their play has been great of late. The Kings set a team record for road wins in the month of December, including a four-game sweep of divisional rivals, helping the Kings to a 10-point lead in the Pacific. The team is once again at the top of the Corsi charts and have allowed the third fewest goals against per game in the league. Tyler Toffoli is leading the league in +/- and is top five in goals. Anze Kopitar’s early season slump seems to have worn off and he’s back to playing like one of the best centers in the league.
Prediction: With the way the Kings are playing, and because the Pacific is having a down year, it’s not hard to predict the Kings will win their division for the first time since 1991. The Kings have also played the top Central Division teams well all season, meaning it’s likely we could see the Kings battling for the Western Conference title this year. The Kings are looking to win now and with the mix of veteran leaders and young talent it’s possible we could see the Kings win a third Cup in five years. However, unless their third defensive pairing improves it’s more likely we’ll see the Kings lose in the Stanley Cup Final to a more well balanced Washington Capitals team.
2. Arizona Coyotes (19-16-4) 42 points, -14 Goal Differential
Surprises: Where they are in the standings. That isn’t to say this is a particularly good team, but the results, and their record, speak for themselves. Rookies Max Domi and Anthony Duclair have played a huge part in that so far this season, with 28 and 20 points, respectively, while 26-year-old winger Mikkel Boedker is on his way to a career year (perhaps not coincidentally in a contract year). But most surprising of all is perhaps captain Shane Doan, who looked like he was nearly done after last year. Yet the long suffering franchise icon has, at age 39, found new life, as he’s already passed last season’s goal total with 15, which leads the Coyotes.
Disappointments: Everything on the other side of the puck. It speaks to the strength of the Pacific Division, but look at some other 2nd place teams and their goal differentials. The Chicago Blackhawks are at +17, as are the Montreal Canadiens, while the New York Islanders have a tidy +14. Not only does Arizona boast a mediocre -14 after 39 games, they’ve allowed 124 goals, 29th in the league ahead of only the Columbus Blue Jackets. Much of that falls on the shoulders of goaltenders Mike Smith (.901 SV%) and Anders Lindback (.893 SV%). However, Smith went down with injury in early December and 23-year-old third-stringer Louis Domingue has quietly stolen the starting job from Lindback in his absence, posting a .926 SV% in eight appearances.
Outlook: As favorable as their standings position looks at the moment, this is a team due for a big, big fall. With a 28th ranked 46.7 CF% and a 101.5 PDO (via war-on-ice), this club that absolutely bleeds goals against isn’t as far away from local boy Auston Matthews as some people think. It’s just a matter of time before a few of the more veteran and talented Pacific teams pull it together and Arizona plummets down the standings.
Prediction: A season ending very similar to the last, with a sell-off of assets at the trade deadline and another top three pick in June’s draft… and just maybe the Hockey Gods will finally smile upon the Coyotes and give this franchise it’s savior.
3. Vancouver Canucks (16-16-9) 41 points, -15 Goal Differential
Surprises: Daniel Sedin. Coming off a 76-point 2014-15, Sedin has come back this season with an even better season, with 38 points in 40 games (78-point pace). With many expecting a decline in play quality and thus production, Sedin has emerged once again as one of the league’s best scorers, tied for 9th in overall league scoring. Even more impressive, is the fact that Sedin is just three goals from matching last season’s total, in almost half the games (17 currently, a 33-goal pace, compared to 20 all of last season). Should he keep it up, it would be his best offensive season, in terms goals as well as points, since his 41-goal, 104-point 2010-11 season. It’s not necessarily the raw totals that make Sedin’s 2015-16 campaign so impressive to-date, it’s the fact that, at 35 years of age, the former Art Ross winner appears to still have more to give.
Disappointments: Radim Vrbata. Just as he was at the quarter pole, Vrbata is still not living up to expectations. Coming off 31 goals last season (20 on the power play), the 34-year-old has ten goals and 18 points in 38 games this year, with just three goals on the man advantage. Should he stay on such a pace, it will be a drop-off of roughly ten goals and 25 points. More concerning however, is the fact that the Czech forward doesn’t spread out his goals, but scores them in bunches after long goalless droughts. Vrbata boasts a handful of multi-goal efforts to his name, including a hat-trick December 8th against the Buffalo Sabres. In his first season as a Canuck, Vrbata was a regular scoring threat at even strength, as well as when up a man. That trait seems to have all but disappeared this season, and the Canucks, whether they want him for a run at the playoffs or as trade deadline bait, would be well served to have Vrbata return to form.
Outlook: The Canucks currently boast a mediocre 16-16-9 record, putting them 20th in the NHL. While that’s hardly convincing, the fact that they’re just a point out of second in the Pacific gives hope that this is a team that could push for the postseason. Whether that’s what’s best for the club long-term is still in question, but the fact remains that there is still hope for the Canucks to make back-to-back playoff appearances.
Prediction: Despite a solid stretch of 5-2-1 in their last eight, the Canucks still face an uphill battle on their way to the post season. With the Flames, Oilers and Ducks all playing better hockey of late, it appears as if it’s going to be a stiff battle for the final two Pacific division berths. Sure, it’s very possible they squeak in, but for now, hope they succeed, but expect them to fall just short.
4. Calgary Flames (19-18-2) 40 points, -18 Goal Differential
Surprises: While many didn’t expect winger Johnny Gaudreau to become so elite so quickly, the real pleasant surprise this season has been goaltender Karri Ramo. As recently as 11 weeks ago Ramo was on waivers, considered the odd-man out among starter Jonas Hiller and Joni Ortio. However, the latter proved ineffective, while the former battled injury and inconsistency, giving Ramo the opportunity he needed to shine. While his .913 SV% and 2.54 GAA in 28 games aren’t exactly eye-popping, on a Flames team with a negative shot differential, possession numbers below 50, and the 27th most goals allowed in the NHL, Ramo’s been a huge reason they haven’t completely fallen out of the race.
Disappointments: This one’s a no brainer, but it’s hard to single out defensemen Dougie Hamilton when a few other blueliners have likewise under performed, particularly on the offensive side of the puck. While last year the Flames blueline was the engine driving the offense and the envy of most of the NHL, it’s struggled at times this season to regain that form. While Dennis Wideman hasn’t been terrible with one goal and 18 points, he’s slipped far from the pace of his career best 15 goals and 56 points from last year. Ditto for Kris Russel, who has managed just 12 points so far this year after putting up 34 the year before.
Which brings us to Hamilton, one of the marquee pickups of the offseason who looks nothing like the franchise defenseman the Flames thought they were getting from Boston. Though obviously all three of those players still have time to turn things around and join Mark Giordano and T.J. Brodie in forming an elite blueline corps, for now it’s been a pretty big disappointment.
Outlook: This is very much a “show me” season for the Flames, where much of their youth is experienced enough to make a meaningful contribution, while there’s certainly some talent on the roster, and the group has to prove their playoff appearance last season wasn’t a fluke. As of now they’re probably where most prognosticators thought they would be and should be able to maintain that course.
Prediction: They fight tooth and nail for third place in the Pacific and maybe make a run for a wild card spot currently held by a Central team.
5. Anaheim Ducks (16-16-7) 39 points, -21 Goal Differential
Surprises: Everyone has known about John Gibson for a couple years now. The rookie goaltender came up to the Ducks during their playoff run in 2014 and has bounced back and forth from the AHL to the NHL last season and this year. Will this finally be the time we see Gibson stay up with the big club for good? Gibson was just awarded the NHL’s rookie of the month for December after posting a 5-3-1 record with a 1.63 GAA and a .929 SV% and has also been named to represent the Ducks (along with Corey Perry) at the 2016 NHL All-Star Game. He’s been a big reason the Ducks have points in five straight games, including back-to-back 1-0 shutouts against the Flames and Oilers.
Disappointments: We’re now into January and Ryan Getzlaf has only three goals. While he does have 20 assists, it’s puzzling why he’s not able to bury the puck like in past seasons. You have to wonder if perhaps he’s playing with a nagging injury of some sort. Speaking of only scoring thgree goals, Carl Hagelin has put up that many, but only has five assists and is -13 on the year. That’s only one better than Ryan Kesler’s team worst -14. Kesler also leads all Ducks forwards with 47 PIM’s.
Outlook: As of this writing the Ducks are sitting in fifth spot in the Pacific. A lot of hockey fans predicted that the Ducks and Kings would battle for the Pacific this season, but it’s looking more and more like the Ducks will just be battling to make the playoffs. The team’s 73 goals are easily the lowest in the league, as they’re the only team not scoring at least two goals a game. Unless the offense improves it’s going to be hard for the Ducks to hold onto a playoff spot. Gibson is playing great right now, but how long can a team who can’t score rely on a rookie to continue carrying them?
Prediction: Because the Ducks have a lot of skilled players, and the Pacific Division is so bad, it’s likely they’ll manage to turn around their anemic offense and make the playoffs. If they do, they would most likely be playing another weak Pacific team in the 2/3 spot and should be favored to beat anyone other than the Kings in their division. Defense and goaltending wins playoff games and right now if the Ducks make the playoffs they should win in the first round before losing to the Kings in the second.
6. San Jose Sharks (18-17-2) 38 points, -5 Goal Differential
Surprises: Perhaps the biggest surprise in the Pacific Division this season has been the play of 35-year-old Joel Ward. Ward is currently fifth on the Sharks in scoring and has 10 goals through 35 games. Picked up as a free agent from the Washington Capitals, Ward was supposed to be a depth player but he’s earned a spot in the top-six thanks to his improved play over last season. Ward’s 14 assists this season are only one less than his total from a year ago.
Disappointments: Losing Logan Couture to injury for 30 games was obviously a big disappointment for the Sharks. However, an even bigger disappointment has been the play of Tommy Wingles and Long Beach native Matt Nieto. When a big piece of your team, like Couture, goes down, you need to rely on your depth players to help pick up the slack and the Sharks haven’t been able to do that. Wingles has only three goals and nine points, while Nieto has four goals and eight points this season. Both players are on pace for their least productive full seasons in the NHL.
Outlook: The Sharks have been pretty mediocre at best on both offense and defense. Getting Couture back to start 2016 should be a boost offensively for the team, and hopefully he’ll help balance out the lines and increase scoring from more than just the top-six. Martin Jones started the year pretty well, but recently his SV% has dropped to below the league average to just .910 right now. He’ll need to be better if the Sharks want to make the playoffs. Joe Pavelski is a stud and is on pace for 40 goals again. Marleau and Burns are both playing well offensively, but have a combined -28 between them. Burns is the team’s #1 blueliner and has a team worst -15. Perhaps he needs to focus more on stopping the opposition than scoring goals.
Prediction: The Sharks have a new coach this year in Pete DeBoer and a lot of fans were hoping he would bring a change in mindset to this team, but it doesn’t look like much has improved as far as the players playing with a sense of urgency. Right now they have games in hand on the rest of the division and should be able to catch a few teams in the standings, but what they could do in the playoffs is a mystery though.
7. Edmonton Oilers (17-21-3) 37 points, -20 Goal Differential
Surprises: Leon Drasaitl. After being sent back to junior part way through the season, Drasaitl, the highest drafted German player in NHL history, has become a force for the Oilers. With a whopping 32 points in 31 games, the 20-year-old has emerged as the Oilers’ top line centre, playing alongside top scorer and all-star Taylor Hall (41 points in 41 games), and has developed confidence in his skating ability throughout the season. After being sent back to junior after 37 NHL games last season, it was expected that the big forward would make the team, but the types of contributions he’s making now were largely unforeseen. Draisaitl’s a big reason why the Oilers aren’t out of the playoff race, and should they find a way to get in, the former third overall pick will likely be a core reason why.
Disappointments: Nail Yakupov. When Connor McDavid was healthy, Yakupov was seen as having maybe turned a corner in his career and was ready to become a key contributor for the Oilers. Through the month of October, the former first overall pick scored seven points in 12 games, and it appeared as if he and McDavid had developed a nice chemistry between them. Since then, Yakupov was injured on November 25th, and had just five in his past 10 leading up to that. Production aside, the Russian forward had simply not been as noticeable up until his injury, and seemed to have lost the spark that made him so effective early. If he’s a good fit with McDavid, that’s great, but on his own merits, Yakupov has not been getting it done.
Outlook: Despite sitting in the basement of the Pacific Division, the Oilers are still having a relatively successful campaign. With a 17-21-3 record, the Oilers currently sit just three points back of the fourth place Calgary Flames (who have two games in hand, albeit), and are without question still in the race for a playoff berth. In a weak Pacific Division, this might be the year that Edmonton breaks through from the bottom. The rebuild appears to be back on track, and we might be seeing the first competitive Oilers team in a while.
Prediction: Despite a fairly positive outlook for the team, it’s still hard to see this group as anything close to a playoff lock. Looking at it from a realistic point of view, this is a squad that seems poised to push and take some big steps forward, but in a year when anyone in the Pacific seems to have a shot, the Oilers will ultimately fall short.
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