The half-way mark in the NHL season is usually a time when the strengths and weaknesses of a club have been fully exposed, giving not only team executives but also fans time to ruminate on where their franchise needs to improve in the frantic final half of the season.
The LWOS hockey department has done the same, taking a division-by-division snapshot of where each team is at at the mid-way point of the 2015-16 season, and where they are heading as a result.
First up, the Metropolitan Division, brought to you by Ken Hill (@LWOSPuckHead), Aaron Wrotkwoski (@AaronWrotkowski) and Nic Hendrickson (@RedArmyNic).
The NHL at the Half: Metropolitan Division
1. Washington Capitals (29-7-3) 61 Points, +39 Goal Differential
Surprises: Before the season began, few people doubted Washington was going to be a good team this year, but I don’t think anyone expected them to be this good, particularly on the defensive side of the puck. Of course a team with a host of offensive players lead by Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom is going to put up lofty goal totals (124 in total, second only to the Dallas Stars), but the big surprise is the number they’ve conceded. The Capitals are, at this point, the best defensive team in the NHL, with just 85 goals against in 39 games (and the second-best goals against per game at this point with 2.15). They also have the highest goal differential in the league, six goals ahead of Dallas and a whopping +14 ahead of the third place Florida Panthers.
Disappointments: Do they have one? First overall, dominant on both offense and defense as well as at home and on the road, the special teams are sizzling, their top stars are playing like it, the depth has been solid, and overall the team has been pretty healthy. Coach Barry Trotz has this team firing on all cylinders.
Outlook: That said, there are some concerns that the bubble will burst eventually. The team is already without Brooks Orpik on the backend and lost bottom-six forward Jay Beagle before the new year, so there is the specter that the defense might begin to falter, particularly if number-one defenseman John Carlson shows any ill-effects of the injury he’s been dealing with over the last couple of weeks when he returns (both he and Orpik are due back soon). Still, these are comparatively minor issues, and it appears Washington will sit comfortably on top of the division until April.
Prediction: Those who picked the Capitals as a Cup contender prior to the season are being proven more and more astute by the day. Washington breezes through to the Eastern Conference Final before making their first Stanley Cup Final appearance since 1998.
2. New York Islanders (22-13-5) 49 Points, +14 Goal Differential
Surprises: This isn’t necessarily a surprise, with how well he plays on a regular basis, but the performance this season from Kyle Okposo has been great. Through 38 games for Okposo, he has racked up 31 points (10-21-31), and has been a massive contributor to the success the Isles are having this season.
Disappointments: The three names that come to mind when speaking about disappointments for the Isles are Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolay Kulemin, and Ryan Strome. As previously mentioned in the quarter-pole series for this same team, there is a substantial amount of cap space being taken up by Grabovski (6-12-18), and Kulemin (5-8-13), and yet they have only put up some fairly meager numbers. Strome, however, is a bigger disappointment than the other two by far, with massive expectations for him coming into this year off the back of a 50-point season (17-33-50). Needless to say, the three goals and 11 assists he has managed this season are not what was expected from the former 1st rounder.
Outlook: Despite some underperforming seasons from some of the players many thought would be main players, the Isles have asserted their dominance in the Metro and the East alike. They have found a consistency to their game and have come out with big wins on multiple occasions, and are not a team to sleep on.
Prediction: Will continue to perform, finish 2nd in the Metro, and possibly could be a dark horse come playoff time.
3. New York Rangers (22-13-5) 48 Points, +13 Goal Differential
Surprises: Mats Zuccarello. Where would the Rangers be without this 5’7” speedster? Last season he had 49 points in 78 games. This year, with 40 games played, he already has 31. He’s on pace for 32 goals and 62 points, and more importantly, he’s leading the Rangers in scoring. When you have guys like Rick Nash in your lineup, that’s a surprise. When people say that the NHL is now more accommodating to small players with skill, Zuc’s name should be near the top of the list.
Disappointments: Everything I said later about Jordan Staal of the Carolina Hurricanes is true for Derek Stepan, though he is doing a little better with 15 points in 30 games, but his faceoff percentage is an abysmal 45.6%. Stepan makes more than Staal per year with a $6.5 million cap hit but will actually be paid $8 million for his current half-point-per-game production. That’s atrocious. The 25-year-old has five more years on this contract and plenty of time to turn it around, heck, there’s plenty of time to turn up the heat this season. But make no mistake about it, the Rangers need Stepan great if they want to make a run. Half a point is great for a third line centre, not a top-sixer.
Outlook: The Rangers at one point sat at the top of the Eastern Conference. Like the Montreal Canadiens, it has been nothing but stumbles after November. They still sit in a comfortable third in the Metropolitan, with the Devils three points behind, and I have a hard time seeing them miss the playoffs. The bigger question is what they end up doing in the playoffs.
Prediction: This Rangers team has seen the Eastern Conference Final and the Stanley Cup Final in recent years. Are they better than the Capitals? Are they better than the Islanders? Could they be ripe for an upset against a wildcard team like the Devils? It’s tough to say, and the next half of the season needs to answer these questions. Playoff team? Absolutely. Sure thing for the Eastern Conference Final? Not even The King can guarantee that this season.
4. New Jersey Devils (20-15-5) 45 Points, -2 Goal Differential
Surprises: The biggest surprise this season hasn’t been a player for the Devils, but more so the stellar defense they have been playing. There are only six teams in the entire NHL (three in the East, three in West), which have had a stouter defense, statistically, than New Jersey. And, of those six teams, three of them are leading their divisions currently and five of them are in playoff spots; this says a lot for the chances for the Devils.
Disappointments: The obvious candidate for biggest disappointment in the form of a player would have to be none other than Jiri Tlusty. We have arrived at the half-way point of the season and, in his first season with New Jersey, he has only played in 28 of the games and has accrued a meager four points along the way (2-2-4). Despite Tlusty never being seen as a prolific scorer, numbers of this level are obviously unacceptable, and when you compound them with a -1 and the lowest shooting percentage of his career (5.4%), excluding his truncated sophomore campaign, it is safe to say that New Jersey bringing him on has been nothing short of disappointing.
Outlook: The Devils have been a very solid team this season and, despite not being the most high scoring of teams, have been able to get the results they need due to their defensive staunchness. They are a team to be feared by all, and can get results against the best of them.
Prediction: They continue to roll on, behind the stellar defensive play, and finish the season in the top Wild Card spot.
5. Pittsburgh Penguins (19-15-5) 43 Points, -3 Goal Differential
Surprises: While the offense sputtering along as it has (just 93 goals for, 26th in the NHL), the Penguins defense has been keeping them from falling out of the race completely, and much of that is on the back of goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, who is having a career year at age 31. Oft maligned for his post-season performances and overall career numbers unbefitting of a 1st overall draft pick, Fleury has gotten better with age and may finally deserve to be mentioned among the league’s elite goaltenders this season with his 8th-best in the NHL .926 SV%
Disappointments: Much digital ink has been spilled over the difficult season captain Sidney Crosby has been having (until recently), which must be a great relief to winger Phil Kessel, who was ostensibly brought in to play with Crosby and has massively under preformed. Considered one of the preeminent snipers on the wing in the world, Kessel’s 12 goals in 39 games and 9.6 shooting percentage are far below the numbers he put up as a Toronto Maple Leaf. Considering the level of offensive players around him, some predicted an easy 40-50 goals for Kessel. As of now, he’s not even on pace for 30. How does a player of Kessel’s ilk have just TWO power play goals?
Outlook: With team possession numbers above 50% and a PDO below 100, it seems unlikely the Penguins will continue getting such uninspiring results in both the goals for and points column, especially as Crosby is starting to look like the best player in the world again with 12 points in his last eight games. The same goes for Kessel, who is simply too talented not to turn things around. If those two can join team point leader Evgeni Malkin (37 points in 39 games) by playing up to their potential for the remainder of the year, and Fleury can continue to be a wall, the Penguins should find themselves moving up in the Metro.
Prediction: GM Jim Rutherford makes a short-term, long-impact trade to bolster the blueline for a playoff run, the Penguins move up to top three in the division and get bounced in the second round, leading to yet another summer of wild speculation over the fates of Malkin and Crosby.
6. Philadelphia Flyers (16-15-7) 39 Points, -22 Goal Differential
Surprise: Shayne Gostisbehere. The defenceman with an extremely hard to pronounce name has 16 points in 22 games, including seven goals. The 22-year-old might weigh only 160 lbs but he looks at home in the NHL, and the Flyers were desperate for a young guy to make good. With Mark Streit at 38 years old, someone is going to need to step up his minutes in the top-four sooner rather than later and Gostisbehere looks to be the man to do it. The future is bright on the Philadelphia blueline for the first time in over a decade.
Disappointment: Steve Mason. Mason had a decent year last year with a .928 save percentage in 51 games for the terrible Flyers. His season before that had him posting .917 in 61 games, which is good enough. This season he’s dropped to a .910 and looks to have his starter role snatched up by Michal Neuvirth. It’s hard to build confidence with a goalie who one game is posting a shutout (he has two on the year, one against division rival New York Rangers) and the next he’s allowing four goals (he’s allowed four goals or more in seven games). Unlike regular disappointments like Andrew McDonald and Vincent Lecavalier, Mason is only locked up for another season and could surely bounce back. I just expected more from a good goalie who had a rough go in Columbus.
Outlook: The Flyers are an odd team this year. Goal scoring-wise they sit 29th, no surprise when they have the 25th best powerplay in the league. They also allow 32.4 shots against per game, which means their goalie is getting peppered every game. That said, Neuvirth has held the fort and Mason has had his odd good game. A big part of their scoring woes was Jakub Voracek unable to score due to being weighted down by all of the money he received in the off-season. He managed just three points in 10 games in October. In the last 10 games, Voracek has nine points.
Prediction: It could all come together and the Flyers could make a run at the playoffs, but I don’t know if this year is their year. Next season, with the coach’s systems better implemented, the Flyers could surprise.
7. Carolina Hurricanes (16-17-7) 39 Points, -19 Goal Differential
Surprise: Kris Versteeg. At the quarter I mentioned Justin Faulk as the surprise. He’s still sort of the surprise with 14 goals, 16 assists and 30 points in 40 games to lead the Hurricanes in scoring. We should be talking about Faulk the way we talk about Erik Karlsson and P.K. Subban but it hasn’t happened yet. That said, I expected Versteeg to crash and burn his way to Europe this season and instead he has 22 points in 39 games. Not bad for a salary dump which the Hurricanes only have to pay $2.2 million for until spring comes. Versteeg isn’t really meant to stay. He’s going to provide solid value for the Canes at the trade deadline. Not bad for a guy who was getting scratched in Chicago last year.
Disappointment: Jordan Staal. Where is the criticism for this guy? He’s making $6 million this year! And next year! And the year after that, and after that, and unless he gets bought out he’s making six million McScrooge bucks until the summer of 2023. Staal was a huge disappointment last season and few mentioned it because they were focused on shaming Alex Semin. This year he has a whopping 15 points in 40 games. He started the first nine games without a point, put up six points in five games, then went back to seven donut games. Six points in 14 games was considered an improvement in December. The Hurricanes could be turning their franchise around soon with the good drafting of guys like Faulk. What the heck will they do when Jordan Staal is doing nothing other than great faceoff numbers at $6 million?! Staal should be the nightmare story GMs tell their sons and daughters at night before they grow up and become GMs. “If you see a guy who is a really good third line centre but his team doesn’t want to make him a top-six centre, don’t fall in love with him. It’s never meant to be!”
Outlook: The Hurricanes sit tied with the Philadelphia Flyers, only five points from a playoff spot in the wildcard. That said, the wildcard in the Eastern Conference is going to be vicious. I don’t see the Hurricanes surviving, even if Cam Ward turns into a golden god one last time. It’s okay though. The Carolina Hurricanes could have a bright future if they can weather these few bad years.
Prediction: The Hurricanes and Blue Jackets fight it out for last place in the division, right down to the wire.
8. Columbus Blue Jackets (15-23-3) 33 Points, -26 Goal Differential
Surprises: The main surprises this season have been few and far between for Columbus, as they have continued to carry players who have underperformed. However, for all the players underperforming, there are just as many having great seasons. The first player that has impressed many of the forums and fans alike is that of Alexander Wennberg (3-10-13). Wennberg spent a good portion of the first quarter of the season injured, whether his foot or other ailments. But, since coming back from his second injury stint, he has been an ever-present face in the Columbus line up and arguments can be made that he has having one of the best seasons of all the Blue Jackets players.
Despite multiple others having good seasons, like Boone Jenner and Cam Atkinson, the one that might surprise most is that of veteran forward, Scott Hartnell. Hartnell, 33, was seen as someone who would be brought in to just be a bit of veteran leadership and get on the score sheet here and there. However, halfway through the season, Hartnell is leading the Blue Jackets with 30 points (14-16-30), and is 6th on the team in total shots, with 79.
Disappointments: This section, unfortunately for Columbus fans, could go on for quite a while with all of the things going on for the Blue Jackets this season. The two biggest disappointments, when speaking about players, would have to be the captain, Nick Foligno (5-18-23), and the young center, Ryan Johansen (6-21-27). Despite being 1st and 2nd on the team in assists, there was and continues to be much more expected of the two to lead the team forward. Yet, they aren’t even the biggest disappointment and hindrance to the Blue Jackets’ season, by far!
The main issue this year has been the constant flow of players onto the injured reserve list, including starting goalie Sergei Bobrovsky and back-up goaltender Curtis McElhinney. The injury to these two has left Columbus to call up their two AHL goalies, Joonas Korpisalo and Anton Forsberg, on a fairly regular basis.
Outlook: Despite having talent on the team and getting good wins since John Tortorella was appointed head coach, don’t expect much else this season but competition. If, and if is the key word here, Columbus can bring in a top defenseman, and stay healthy, they could be a good team for many years to come. And, if able to secure the 1st overall pick in the upcoming draft, there’s a strong possibility that highly-touted forward Auston Matthews could be that shoot-first forward Columbus is in desperate need of.
Prediction: The Jackets will continue to get wins against good teams, and will compete for the rest of the season. Should finish as one of the bottom two teams in the division, and will have a chance at the 1st overall pick in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft.
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