You know the story. On the night before Christmas, the miser Scrooge, who rejected both a family dinner invitation and a cry for help from two poor gentlemen on Christmas Eve, is visited by the ghost of his late business partner, Jacob Marley, who had died exactly seven years previous. Marley, living out eternity in chains, tells Scrooge that he will be visited by three spirits and that he must change his ways lest he suffer an even worse fate after his death.
The first two spirits, the ghosts of Christmas Past and Present show Scrooge a variety of scenes, all of which stir up several different emotions, and the final spirit, the ghost of Christmas Yet to Come, shows Scrooge the funeral of a “wretched man”, the identity of whom Scrooge does not want to know, for whom no-one is mourning. Scrooge promises the spirit that he will change his ways, which he duly does.
You know the story at Manchester United, too. Since the retirement of Sir Alex Ferguson, one of the greatest football managers who ever lived, the Red Devils have struggled to replicate anywhere near the success he brought. United hadn’t finished below third since the old Division 1 became the Premiership (and now the Premier League) in 1992. In the first season after Ferguson left, under David Moyes, they finished seventh and the season after, under Louis van Gaal, they finished fourth.
This season they lie joint fourth, but they are already out of the Champions League and have not been at all convincing domestically. They have played frankly boring football, with Anthony Martial the only attacking player who has had any substantial success, and have relied on strong defensive performances from the likes of Chris Smalling and David de Gea to keep them adrift in the race for the top four. Van Gaal’s job is far from safe.
At Arsenal, things are quite different. It seems that the glory days are returning. After two successive FA Cup wins, Arsène Wenger’s men have a great chance of winning the Premier League for the first time since 2004 and, after some initial disasters, produced some impressive European performances to qualify for the Last 16 of the Champions League.
Just as important is that the football being played at The Emirates is a joy to behold. Largely revolving around the genius of Mesut Özil, Arsenal play beautiful, flowing football in which almost the whole team, even Laurent Koscielny, contributes going forward. Defensively, they are performing at the highest level since the “Invincibles”. Koscielny, Petr Cech and Nacho Monreal are putting in world class performances on a regular basis; Per Mertesacker is not what he once was but still a perfectly sound centre-back; young stars Gabriel and Calum Chambers are gradually improving; and Hector Bellerin, though he has had a handful of difficult games, looks like the real deal.
As tempting as it is to spend the article singing the praises of Arsenal, I must move on and discuss the difficult truth: Arsène Wenger has to leave at some point. His contract runs out in 2017, but should he win the Premier League and/or the Champions League don’t bet against him being around a little while longer. Knowing Wenger he will already have potential successors in mind, but it is crucial that the next Arsenal manager does not “do a Moyes”.
When a manager does well at a club outside of the top four, it is easy for people to get carried away with themselves. At Arsenal, the moment a manager does well at a “smaller” English team, groups of people clamour for him to replace Wenger. Just ask Tony Pulis, Garry Monk, Brendan Rodgers, David Moyes, Martin O’Neill and, of course, Owen Coyle. However, what the impatient British media seem to forget is that football is a long-term game. The best prove that they are genuinely top class by producing for years on end; the rest can do it for short periods of time but always regress to the mean.
In his defence, David Moyes had performed very well at Everton for a long period of time. In that time he proved that he is at least a very good manager. However, managers to do well at smaller clubs are not always able to replicate that at the top level: some managers have lower ceilings than others. There were many reasons why it didn’t work out for him at United, but part of the reason was that Moyes couldn’t step up another level and manage the champions.
Therefore should Arsenal choose someone who hasn’t already won things at the highest level to succeed Wenger, nevertheless it must be clear that the new man’s ceiling is high enough to keep winning trophies. This means that the manager will need to have shown signs of regular improvement. Moyes was never able to move past finishing in the top five or six and challenging for, but not winning trophies. He could have done that at Everton but, as was shown by his transfer policy, had hit “the wall” and wasn’t able to improve.
With van Gaal, they went for a short-term option, which always carries a risk. Part of the problem here was that they used a man with a very long-term goal as a short-term fix. Van Gaal’s philosophy needs time, as he said himself. Therefore having someone who will be at the club for a maximum of three years trying to implement a goal which requires time is going to be difficult.
Arsenal will be in a different situation because the squad Wenger will leave will be on a very different level to that which Moyes and van Gaal inherited. But if they are to opt for a more short-term manager, he will need to be able to stamp his authority on the team quickly.
To make two distinct groups, the Gunners could either opt for proven winners or take a risk with talent that is more raw.
Pep Guardiola and Carlo Ancelotti are the best examples of the former; it is highly unlikely that either of those two wouldn’t win plenty of trophies in their time at the club. Both can be used as long-term options (Ancelotti is 56—don’t be fooled by the white hair) which would give some of the more inexperienced men who would do well at Arsenal more time to develop their skills. Pep would have to take another sabbatical should Wenger stay until 2017 and Ancelotti will be at Bayern Munich at the start of next season, where he will likely be for a few years, so neither of these two is particularly likely to come.
Another proven winner who is something of a long shot is Jurgen Klopp. The Liverpool manager has a difficult job on his hands and will want to be at the club for a long time yet, so it may take Wenger to stay on for a few more years if the German were to move to another club in England. Regardless, Klopp would suit Arsenal very well and his “gegenpressing” tactic would suit Aaron Ramsey in particular very well. Again, it is now unlikely that he’ll ever come to North London, but should that happen his time would be a successful one.
The managers who would be more of a risk are where things get interesting. One of the more left field names thrown into the hat is Derby manager, Paul Clement. Carlo Ancelotti’s old assistant is clearly a great student of the name and his time at Derby thus far has been something of a success. He has proven that he can hack it at the top level, but only as an assistant thus far. If he can get his side into the Premier League and consistently improve their league position, then perhaps he would be the right man for the job. Again, it will take a few years yet for him to prove himself.
Patrick Vieira and Dennis Bergkamp are two ex-Arsenal players who have been linked with the manager’s job. It would be wonderful if two “Invincibles” were to continue the Wenger tradition, but they have much to prove in management.
Bergkamp has done a very good job as Ajax’s assistant manager for the last four-and-a-half years, but it is time for him to move up to a full managerial role if he wants to reach the top. There is no doubt that having a footballing genius in charge of a team of talented players is a good recipe for success, and the only immediate question mark over him is: would he be able to work with players who aren’t naturally top class?
Considering how naturally football came to him, it would be interesting to see how Bergkamp would work with someone like Olivier Giroud, who relies less on natural ability and more on hard work to achieve success. This is not to say that talented players don’t have to work hard, but once they have done the hard work it’s usually easier to produce results. Bergkamp, though he will inherit a team of top class players, will have to prove that he can get the best out of the less talented players as well.
Vieira has taken the manager’s job at New York City FC and whilst MLS is not the most highly-rated league, a project like what he has in New York could be a good learning curve for his first managerial job. As a footballer, Vieira was quite a unique entity and, most importantly from a manager’s point of view, had a great footballing brain. He should be able to use this to great effect, but he may need another, more distinguished job to prove that he can manage at a club like Arsenal.
Whatever happens, Arsenal will need to make a more calculated decision than United made with Moyes. That is not to say that they appointed him without thinking, rather that the Gunners will need to be absolutely certain that the next manager will be able to fit into Arsenal be it a proven winner or someone with less experience.
