Let me start off by addressing the elephant in the room. Yes, Mark McGwire took steroids. If that is too much for you to consider him worthy of induction, then anything written here or anywhere else will not sway you as you have already made up your mind. People who have adopted this stance frequently cite rule 5 of the BBWAA election rules. Known colloquially as the “character clause”, rule 5 states that, “voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played”. I, however, am among the other group of people who have adopted the thinking that it is impossible to know the extent or steroids or the impact they may have had, therefore I choose to ignore it in order to be able to apply a consistent standard based on statistical production when considering each player. For those people, I will attempt to show you why McGwire is a worthy Hall of Famer.
The Case for McGwire
McGwire’s case rests largely on the fact that he is arguably the greatest home run hitter in the history of baseball. Among players with at least 3,000 plate appearances, McGwire has the best AB per HR rate ever at 10.61, greater than Babe Ruth and greater than the all time home run king, Barry Bonds. McGwire is 10th all time in home runs with 583 and is second all time in home runs for a first basemen behind only Jim Thome. He is also top 10 in baseball history in slugging percentage, OPS and fourth in both categories among his peers at first base. Lastly, McGwire has a career fWar ( fangraphs war) of 66.3, 14th all time among first base. Everyone ahead of him is either already in the Hall of Fame or will eventually be inducted, with the exception of Rafael Palmeiro, who is no longer eligible to appear on the ballot.
The Case Against McGwire
Jay Jaffe, a baseball writer for Sports Illustrated and arguably the leading expert in Hall of Fame voting, has McGwire as falling just short of the average Hall of Fame threshold for first basemen. His proprietary system “JAWS” (Jaffe WAR Score system) has McGwire four wins short of the average WAR among first basemen in the Hall of Fame, and just short of the average in WAR7 (a player’s seven best seasons) and JAWS score. In his write up of McGwire, Jaffe writes “His peak score is much closer at 0.5 wins below the standard spread out over seven seasons—less than one run a year, a negligible amount given the assumptions built into such valuation systems.” It is important to note that these thresholds that McGwire falls just short of, are the average mark for first base. Based on his system McGwire is a borderline candidate.
Final Thoughts
While those numbers may not sound as impressive as being top five at his position in many of the slugging categories, this is largely a reflection of his poor defense (though he did win a Gold Glove award in 1990 for people who take stock in Gold Gloves) and his injuries. Unfortunately there were five separate seasons where McGwire played fewer than 100 games. While defense should definitely be a factor for consideration and injuries should matter too, given the impressive power he demonstrated in his relatively limited time on the field, he should be inducted. To go along with his home run prowess, McGwire has the accolades to pad his resume. Though he never won an MVP, he is a 12-time All-Star, a three-time Silver Slugger award winner and a Rookie of the Year award winner in 1987 when he set a rookie record with 49 home runs; a record that still stands. He also won the World Series as a member of the Oakland Athletics in 1989. Last but not least, McGwire was selected as a member of the Major League Baseball All-Century team in 1999. He is one of only four players on the 30-man roster who are not inducted in the Hall of Fame. One of those guys is Pete Rose (who is ineligible), another is Ken Griffey Jr. who will be inducted this year, and the last is Roger Clemens, one of the greatest pitchers who ever lived and clearly should be in the Hall of Fame.
One of the ways I like to asses whether someone should be in the Hall of Fame is what were they known for on the field and how good were they at that particular thing. Some guys are great all across the board and this litmus test doesn’t really apply, but for guys like McGwire it definitely does. McGwire was known for his power and the above stats clearly prove he was not only one of the greatest slugging first basemen ever, but also one of the greatest sluggers among all positions in baseball history. He didn’t rack up higher raw totals in other offensive categories because of the multiple injuries he endured, and his admission to using steroids has crossed him off immediately in the eyes of many. McGwire may not have been the best fielder or contact hitter, but he was one of the greatest power hitters ever, that should be enough to make him worthy of the Hall of Fame.
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