The second year of the College Football Playoff will be another success. The money hasn’t been counted yet, and the TV ratings are TBA. However, in terms of inviting the four best teams to the party, the College Football Playoff Committee will validate its existence as a superior alternative to the BCS. Sure, there will be wailing from schools that were left behind, and there will always be a legitimate argument for at least an eight team playoff. The Committee’s shrewd calculations will pacify most of these arguments when the dust has settled on the 2015 season.
The Committee is a curious and somewhat mysterious ensemble. Its members and its machinations are shrouded in confusion and controversy. None of that really matters if they produce four teams that are reasonable qualifiers for a National Championship. So far, so good. Fans must remember that the CFP’s weekly rankings, unlike the AP and Coaches polls, are strategically calculated to provide consistency to their stated criteria, and validate their past logic. The AP and Coaches polls reflect the results of groupthink and fluctuating national reactions to weekly wins and losses. In other words the Committee, until its final rankings, ranks teams based on their pending outcomes as much their past performances.
Last year the Committee jumped TCU into the third spot in the week prior to the final rankings. It was a brilliant move. They temporarily placated Big XII fans by appearing to give the Horned Frogs a shot. Then Ohio State crushed Wisconsin 59-0 in the Big 10 Championship Game. The Committee had every right to reward the Buckeyes for winning a Power 5 conference championship and to punish TCU and the Big XII for not playing a 13th game. They were proven correct when Ohio State stomped their way through Alabama and Oregon to win the National Championship. On the CFP website the Selection Committee Protocol page clearly states the importance of a conference championship:
When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:
Championships won
Strength of schedule
Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)
Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)
“Championships won” are indisputable. The other criteria can be debated, and is debated, with ferocity. And that just adds to the mystique, drama, and attraction of the College Football Playoff.
This year before Championship Weekend, and after 13 weeks, the top 10 of the College Football Playoff Rankings look like this:
- Clemson
- Alabama
- Oklahoma
- Iowa
- Michigan State
- Ohio State
- Stanford
- Notre Dame
- Florida State
- North Carolina
The shrewdness of the Committee’s 2015 deliberations are their rankings of North Carolina at #10, Stanford at #7, Ohio State at #6, Michigan State at #5, and Iowa at #4. We know that Oklahoma and the Big 10 champion are in the Final Four. And we also know that Florida State and Notre Dame are finished. The loser of the Big 10 championship will be on life support unless ultimate chaos ensues. There are three scenarios that remain critically influential to the final rankings. One is the chaos that most fans desire. That is where Clemson and Alabama both lose their ACC Championship and SEC Championship games respectively. Another is that only Clemson loses, and the third is that only Alabama loses.
1) Clemson and Alabama lose. That opens up two slots and obviously would be the most difficult situation for the Committee. Oklahoma and the Big 10 winner would be in. Each would make a case for the #1 seed. North Carolina, Stanford, and Ohio State would have arguments to make the Final Four. North Carolina has, by far, the weakest schedule; but they would have one loss, a win over #1, and an ACC Championship. Ohio State has one loss and no championship; but that loss was to Michigan State, which might be a CFP qualifier. If Michigan State wins the Big 10 Championship Game the Buckeyes will make a strong case.
Stanford has two losses, and assuming they win Saturday, they would have a stellar strength of schedule to go along with a conference championship. In this scenario the Committee is likely to give Stanford one of the remaining two slots. The debate would come down to a choice between Ohio State and North Carolina for the fourth seed. If Stanford loses it clears the way for the Committee to put North Carolina and Ohio State in the Playoff without much argument. The Big 10 Championship loser would make a case. A two loss and no championship Michigan State might beat out Ohio State considering their head to head matchup. That’s dicey for Sparty. Either a two loss Michigan State or a one loss no-champion Iowa would be a tough sell over an ACC crowned North Carolina with only one loss. And Iowa would be on life support.
2) Clemson loses and Alabama wins. That would most likely put Alabama #1, Oklahoma #2, and the Big 10 champion at #3. The final spot would come down to North Carolina, Ohio State, and Stanford (assuming a Stanford win). A Stanford loss is sweet for the Buckeyes. Ohio State would have no shot without a Michigan State win; and a Stanford selection (like scenario #1) would have to explain two losses. North Carolina would scream bloody murder if they were excluded, so the Tar Heels might need a convincing win to be seriously considered. It is similar to the first scenario. The only difference is that Clemson would also have a flimsy argument. Clemson would have only one loss and a huge win over Notre Dame. But the overall weakness of the ACC would likely doom their chances.
3) Only Alabama loses. Now the SEC sits at home for the Prom. The only real contender from the conference would be Alabama. But they would have two losses, no championship, and the national glee that would accompany their exclusion. The Gators would be SEC champs, but have two losses (LSU and an awful performance against Florida State) with a current ranking at #18. They have no shot. Clemson would retain the top seed, Oklahoma would rise to #2, and the Big 10 Champion would be #3.
The #4 slot would be a debate for the ages between a PAC12 champ Stanford and Ohio State (assuming a Stanford win). Everyone knows that the Buckeyes have the talent to repeat, but they have played like crap for a good portion of the season. Stanford has two losses (Northwestern and Oregon). The Northwestern loss was a horrible performance, but the Cats are #14 in the CFP rankings. The Oregon loss (38-36) was an unfortunate matchup against possibly the most dynamic offense in the nation. Stanford also beat Notre Dame in arguably the best game of the 2015 regular season. If Stanford beats USC in the PAC 12 Championship Game they will have beaten a conference foe twice in one season. That’s an impressive accomplishment in any conference; and USC is ranked in the CFP top 25 at #20. Again, Ohio State is rooting heavily for Michigan State to add more cred to their only loss.
These are the most likely scenarios. And the Committee has prepared for the backlash. Ranking North Carolina at #10 honored their one loss season, but punished them for their weak schedule. Stanford at #7 keeps them alive. Ohio State at #6 recognizes their potential threat to beat anybody, at anytime, anywhere. Michigan State at #5 and Iowa at #4 validate the Big 10’s place in the CFP. There is no risk for the Committee to place undefeated Clemson and Iowa at #1 and #4 respectively despite the prevailing suspicion that Alabama is better than Clemson and Michigan State is better than Iowa. The remaining drama will involve seeding. A dominant win by Michigan St. or a solid win by Iowa could vault either team above Oklahoma. Oklahoma’s place in the Final Four will determine whether or not they play in the Cotton Bowl. Dallas might represent a considerable home team advantage. If Clemson barely beats North Carolina and Alabama crushes Florida, who is really #1? The seeding will be critical, but a sideshow compared to the Final Four.
In any scenario the Committee wins this year. They planned for it. And on January 12th they will be celebrating no matter what the outcome is in Glendale, AZ the night before. That’s shrewd.
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