Nebraska seeks upset magic once again as they take on #3 Iowa on Black Friday. Can the Huskers pull it off? Find out here.
On Black Friday Nebraska will be looking for some more upset magic as they take on the 11-0 Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa comes into this game ranked #3 in the nation, but only a three point favorite, after defeating the Purdue Boilermakers to set a school record for wins in a season. They are led by a powerful run game and the steady hand of quarterback C.J. Beathard. Nebraska, meanwhile, seems to have finally figured out who they are as a football team. They shook off an ugly 3-6 start to shock Michigan State 39-38 at home and then shut down Rutgers in a 31-14 victory on the road. Nebraska is led by the sometimes spectacular, sometimes maddening play of Tommy Armstrong and a defense that ranks 11th in the country against the run. Here are the position matchups and my prediction heading into Black Friday’s matchup.
Quarterback
If nothing else, Tommy Armstrong’s run as starting quarterback for Nebraska this season has been exciting. The junior has thrown for 2,560 yards and 21 touchdowns and was spectacular in the fourth quarter of Nebraska’s upset of Michigan State. He was nearly perfect for most of the first half against Rutgers. Where the problems start is with the mistakes. Armstrong has thrown 12 interceptions on the season, with the majority of them resulting from boneheaded decisions by the Cibolo, Texas native. Armstrong has also been solid as a runner this season, rushing for 278 yards and leading Nebraska with six rushing touchdowns.
While watching Armstrong play is like riding a roller coaster with no brakes, watching C.J. Beathard play is like taking a nice comfortable ride in the family sedan. Beathard has completed 61% of his passes this season for 2,257 yards and 13 touchdowns while throwing just three interceptions. Beathard is currently on a streak of 112 passes without an interception, with his last interception coming in the first half against Northwestern. Beathard has also given Iowa a nice spark as a runner. He has rushed for 280 yards and six touchdowns this season.
Both teams have quarterbacks that are fun to watch for different reasons: Beathard for his ultra cool field generalship and Armstrong for his pedal to the metal thrill ride of big plays and mistakes. Beathard is the more consistent of the two though, so the edge goes to the Hawkeyes.
Edge: Iowa
Running Back
Running back was supposed to be a question mark for the Hawkeyes coming into this season. Battering ram fan favorite Mark Weisman finally ran out of eligibility taking his 16 rushing touchdowns from 2014 with him. Someone must’ve forgotten to tell the trio of Jordan Canzeri, LeShun Daniels, and Akrum Wadley that they were supposed to struggle. The three have combined for 1,863 yards and 25 rushing touchdowns through 11 games. Canzeri (824 yards, 10 TD’s)is the best of the bunch, and he appears to be fully recovered from a foot injury he suffered against Northwestern.
Nebraska finally found its rushing identity against Michigan State, and a big reason was the emergence of Imani Cross. Cross, a senior from Gainesville, Georgia stepped into the number one back role after injuries sidelined Terrell Newby, and the 230 pounder has excelled in his new role. Cross has rushed for 188 yards the past two weeks, and most importantly has kept Nebraska on schedule and ahead of the chains with his physical running style. Newby (709 yards, 5 TD’s) should be fully healthy for this game after playing sparingly against MSU and Rutgers due to an ankle injury suffered against Purdue.
Nebraska’s running backs are finally starting to find their footing, but they still aren’t on the level of Iowa’s running back trio. Edge to the Hawkeyes here.
Edge: Iowa
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Tommy Armstrong found a new toy to play with against Rutgers. Junior tight end Cethan Carter finally had the breakout game Husker fans were waiting for, catching four passes for 57 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 32 yards and a touchdown. Carter adds a new dimension to an extremely talented Nebraska receiving corps led by Jordan Westerkamp and Brandon Reilly. Westerkamp (833 yards, 7 TD’s) has been a consistent underneath threat for the Huskers all season, while Reilly (19.6 yards per catch) is a tremendous deep threat with a flair for the spectacular.
Iowa’s receiving corps is led by junior Matt Vandeberg, who has found chemistry with C.J. Beathard on his way to 56 catches for 594 yards and three touchdowns. Vandeberg is joined by senior Tevaun Smith, who has battled injuries all season. When he’s healthy he is Iowa’s most explosive deep threat. Iowa has arguably the best tight end duo in the Big 10. Henry Krieger Coble and George Kittle have combined for 567 receiving yards and six touchdowns this season.
Iowa’s receiving corps have been solid all season, but Nebraska might have the best receiving corps in the Big 10, so the edge goes to the Huskers on this one.
Edge: Nebraska
Offensive Line
If you want to know why Iowa has been so shockingly good this season, the offensive line is a pretty good place to start. Despite having to replace Brandon Scherff and Andrew Donnal, both starters for their NFL teams, Iowa’s line has substantially improved from last season. Seniors Austin Blythe and Jordan Walsh have been studs for an offensive line that has paved the way for the 25th ranked rushing offense in the country. Iowa has shown some vulnerabilities in pass protection against Northwestern and Wisconsin. It appears that they have smoothed out some of those issues in the past four games.
Nebraska’s offensive line has experienced a resurgence the past two games, a change brought on by moving Zach Sterup into the starting lineup at right guard and getting stud freshman Nick Gates back from injury. Gates and senior Alex Lewis have quietly emerged as a quality tackle tandem and have kept Tommy Armstrong upright for the past two games. They have paved the way for a rushing game that has averaged 176.5 rushing yards per game the past two games.
Nebraska’s offensive line appears to have found its groove these past few games, but the Iowa offensive line has been on fire almost the entire season so Hawkeyes get the edge.
Edge: Iowa
Defensive Line
Here is another area that was supposed to give the Hawkeyes trouble coming into the seaso. Star defensive tackles Carl Davis and Louis Trinca-Pasat are both now in the NFL. Well, someone forgot to tell the duo of Jaleel Johnson and Nebraska native Nathan Bazata who have been rock solid in the middle of the Iowa defense. They have combined for 67 tackles and five sacks while anchoring Iowa’s ninth ranked rushing defense. Iowa suffered a huge loss against Illinois when star defensive end Drew Ott, another Nebraska native, tore his ACL. Nate Meier and Parker Hesse have stepped up in his absence to form an effective, though undersized defensive end duo. Meier leads the Hawkeyes with 6.5 sacks.
Nebraska is also anchored by their defensive tackles. Maliek Collins and Vincent Valentine have played tremendously during conference play and are the stars of Nebraska’s 11th ranked rushing defense. Nebraska’s defensive end position is filled with a four man rotation of freshman phenom Freedom Akinmoladun, juniors Ross Dzuris and Greg McMullen, and senior captain Jack Gangwish. The quartet has been reasonably effective this season combining for 12.5 sacks, but has really begun to play well since their disastrous showing against Purdue.
If Ott were healthy, Iowa would have a clear edge, but since he is gone I’ll give a slight edge to the Cornhusker defensive line.
Slight Edge: Nebraska
Linebackers
While all the Iowa coaches probably deserve a pay raise after this season, perhaps none deserve as big of a raise as linebackers coach Jim Reid. Josey Jewell and Cole Fisher (yet another Nebraska native) have come from seemingly out of nowhere to become all conference linebackers. Jewell (102 tackles) is the star of the bunch, while Fisher (92 tackles) is right on his tail. Sophomore Ben Niemann (40 tackles, 3 sacks) hasn’t gotten the publicity of his fellow linebackers, but he has been extremely steady all season.
Nebraska’s linebacker play has been one of the biggest bright spots this season. Coach Trent Bray has seemingly fixed the confidence issues that plagued this unit last season. Junior Josh Banderas missed almost the entire first half of the season due to a groin injury, but he has been fantastic since returning accounting for 45 tackles in the past five games. Freshman Dedrick Young has done as well as anyone could have hoped for the freshman. The Peoria, Arizona native leads all husker linebackers with 53 tackles on the season. Marcus Newby and Michael Rose-Ivey round out the linebacker corps. The pair have combined for 52 tackles on the season.
This one was to tough to call, both units are playing their best football coming into Friday’s game, so I’ll call this one even.
Even
Secondary
Nebraska’s secondary has taken steps forward this season. Their safeties are playing much more aggressively and the cornerbacks no longer appear lost when in coverage. Junior Nate Gerry leads the way in the back third for Nebraska with 72 tackles and four interceptions. While they have improved, the bottom line is that Nebraska is still ranked an abysmal 125th out of 128 FBS teams against the pass. Their performance against Rutgers was their best performance of the season though, so things are beginning to turn for them.
Iowa has been solid against the pass this season, ranking 56th in the nation against the pass despite having to protect leads against teams that completely abandon the run game. Desmond King leads the way for the Hawkeyes. The All-American has 54 tackles and is tied for the nation’s lead in interceptions with eight. Greg Mabin covers the other side of the field, giving Iowa one of the best corner back tandems in the country. Taylor Miles and the hard hitting Jordan Lomax round out the secondary and give the Hawkeyes a solid pair of safeties.
Nebraska is definitely getting better against the pass, but Iowa still gets the edge due to the fantastic duo of King and Mabin
Edge
Special Teams
Iowa has a solid kicker in senior Marshall Koehn, who has made 13 of 17 field goals on the season, including a 57 yarder against the Pitt Panthers. Punter Dillon Kidd hasn’t gotten a ton of work this season, but he has been effective, averaging 42.6 yards per punt on his 41 punts this season. Desmond King has been solid for the Hawkeyes this season as their punt and kick returner.
Nebraska sophomore Drew Brown has recovered from a rocky offseason to become a consistent performer, making 10 of 12 field goals in Big 10 play and 18 of 24 on the season. Punter Sam Foltz has recovered from an ankle injury to be a huge field position weapon. The junior from Grand Island has averaged 44.4 yards per punt on the season. Nebraska hasn’t gotten much out of their return game this season, but have improved after settling on Stanley Morgan as their kick returner and Jordan Westerkamp as their punt returner.
Neither team really holds a distinct advantage in any area on special teams, so I’ll call this one even as well.
Even
Final Take
This game is going to be a blast. The quietly unstoppable force of Iowa facing off against a feisty Husker team looking to find some more upset magic. Nebraska is finally healthy for the first time all season, and they are playing with a confidence on defense that I haven’t seen since 2011. They have the added motivation of needing a win to cement their bowl eligibility, and the added confidence of knowing that they can beat a top team at home since they’ve already beaten Michigan State earlier this season. Iowa is a coldly efficient machine on offense that grinds out rushing yards and makes enough plays through the air to keep their opponents off balance. I think this game will ultimately become a quarterback duel between Beathard and Armstrong. Neither offense will find much room to run against two of the best run defenses in the nation. I think both quarterbacks play tremendously, but Armstrong makes one more play and Nebraska shocks the college football world for the second time this month.
Nebraska: 34
Iowa: 27
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