The college football season has reached the halfway point, and roughly the top half of the current top 25 ranked teams will shoot it out. Heavyweight conference games, rivalries, and conference championships will sort out the Final Four of the college football playoff. Offense, specifically the success of the spread offense, continues to dazzle the pollsters.
Styles of play differ throughout the country, but there is no question that the evolution of the spread has affected the Power Five and beyond. The spread negates traditional size barriers. The notion that speed kills strength makes the spread an effective antidote to the traditional and massive size advantages that conferences like the Big 10 and SEC have enjoyed for decades. But for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Glittering offenses will light up scoreboards and warm the hearts of college football fans throughout the holidays; but look for fast and physical defenses to bring in the New Year and dictate the College Football Playoff.
Player safety rules and two-hand touch interference penalties have padded passing numbers in the past five years. The spread is also a major factor. No-huddle, up-tempo attacks have changed the paradigm for defenses. This year, however, rushing yardage has increased. Jon Solomon, from CBS Sports, took a close look at offenses through the first four weeks of 2015:
With so many offenses using spread formations and tempo, passing games appear to be hitting a plateau. Rushing attacks are surging.
FBS teams are averaging 186.6 rushing yards per game, up from 182.5 through four weeks in 2014. Yards per carry are at 4.67 in 2015, up from 4.59 last season at this time…
Yards per play — arguably the most pivotal offensive statistic — are up 2 percent to 5.93 compared to the opening month of 2014. The past 10 seasons have produced the 10 highest yards per play averages on record in major college football history.
There are several concurrent arguments about the very existence of the spread offense, and its current viability. No matter what iteration of the spread exists, teams continue to successfully employ its concepts. But, as the novelty continues to wear off, defenses are adjusting by osmosis. Back in August Paul Meyerburg of USA Today took a detailed look at the 2015 impact of the spread.
The proliferation of spread-based teams across college football has led to increased defensive awareness, as teams faced spread offenses more and more frequently but also drilled against the same concepts during practice. As many as eight teams in thePac-12 Conference utilize a spread foundation, for example; though each offense differs, defenses are able to see the same basic formations and philosophies on a regular basis.
Throwing the ball or running the ball out of the spread has tilted the field and altered defenders’ angles. Urban Meyer pioneered the spread during his time at Utah. His current version of the spread hammers the ball, and naturally his teams are prepared for the speed and tempo of teams like Oregon.
“The defenders are so well-schooled at defending the spread,” Meyer said. “The spread originally was a novelty, a little bit like the wishbone. Now it’s the majority of the deal. So teams are just much better at defending it.”
Alabama has been a victim of the spread, and everyone knows Nick Saban doesn’t like surprises. Before last week’s Texas A&M game Bama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart commented on the Crimson Tide’s recruiting strategy to combat the spread with versatile personnel.
“Big enough to play how we want to play and athletic enough to play across the board,” Smart said. “Some guys are athletic enough to play against some teams, but we have to recruit of our 42 or 43 spots who are able to play both styles. That’s hard to do. You can’t make mistakes. You have to get guys who can play in both systems.”
Alabama punished the A&M offensive line, and brutalized Kyle Allen into three pick sixes on their way to a 41-23 blowout.
LSU, who has enjoyed a good deal of success against spread teams, has been ahead of the curve in terms of recruiting defenders. Les Miles commented on this adjustment before last year’s game against Kentucky.
“There has been a push to more athleticism and speed,” Miles said. “We’ve tried to make that adjustment. We feel like we have a very fast defense. Being able to find those cover corners that can match up with receivers and defend. That will be a matchup for this Saturday, one we’ve anticipated in our recruitment. We’ve always kind of had those very capable corner athletes.”
LSU went on to a 41-3 beating of Kentucky.
So, what does this all mean for this year’s second half scramble for the CFP Final Four? A quick look around the Power 5 and Notre Dame’s schedules reveals the speed bumps that high-speed, and highly ranked offenses will encounter.
The Big 12
Baylor, the darling of this year’s polling, is second in the nation in rushing yards per game at 348.7, and sixth in the nation in passing yards per game at 371. The Bears are ranked number two in the AP and Coaches Poll. TCU is ranked number three in the Coaches Poll and number four by the AP. The Horned Frogs are third in the nation in total offense at 616.3 yards per game. Right now it appears likely that one of these two teams will eliminate the other in their regular season game on November 27. Both teams have to play Oklahoma, and the Sooners just might be the Big 12 wildcard. The Sooner defense shut out Kansas State 55-0 last week. They have the speed and versatility to throw a wrench into either engine of the Baylor or TCU machines. Baylor faces Oklahoma on November 14, and TCU will play the Sooners on November 21.
The SEC
LSU and Alabama will face off in a probable SEC West elimination game on November 7. This game has been a bloody, defensive death match in the past. With both teams struggling at quarterback there is no reason to think this game will be any different. The SEC West winner will probably face a dangerous Florida team in the SEC championship. Defense will determine the SEC, and probably one of the CFP Final Four.
The ACC
Number six Clemson and number nine Florida State will play each other on November 7 in a probable CFP elimination game for one of these teams. However, even if Florida State beats Clemson they will have to beat Florida’s ferocious defense in their season finale to qualify for the CFP. If Clemson runs the table they will be in. Either team with a loss will get left behind.
The PAC 12
Right now Utah is trending out west. They are ranked third in the AP poll and seventh in the Coaches Poll. This week they face just the kind of team that poses problems for the spread. An athletic USC team with a dynamic playmaker in the defensive backfield in Adoree Jackson might dash the Utes’ hopes for a perfect regular season. A fast and physical Washington team will not go lightly on November 7 in Seattle. If the Utes take the PAC 12 South, and they should with a two game lead, they will probably face Stanford in the conference championship game. Stanford’s defense is physical, and they have proven fast enough to keep up with the likes of USC and UCLA. The Cardinal gets Washington at home this week. Washington has a couple of chances to play PAC 12 spoiler.
The Big 10
The Big 10 has traditionally struggled to catch up to faster PAC 12 and SEC teams. No more. Urban Meyer and Ohio State have brought the conference into the 21st Century. Last year the Buckeyes punished Alabama and Oregon in the CFP. This year’s consensus number one has shown some blind spots on defense. They coughed up 27 points to an injured Indiana, and 28 points to a hapless Maryland. Meyer’s defense will be tested against Michigan State in Columbus on November 21. But if the Buckeye offense tunes up with J.T. Barrett as expected, they should have no problem with Sparty. Mark Dantonio’s defense has surrendered 28 points to Oregon playing with Vernon Adams’ broken finger, and they gave up 24 points each to Western Michigan, Purdue, and Rutgers. The real test for Ohio State will be an angry and frustrated Jim Harbaugh in the season finale on November 28. Michigan is extremely physical, and plenty fast. This rivalry game is always bitter, and Harbaugh will be ready to stake his claim to the Midwest’s ultimate recruiting ground.
Notre Dame
As always Notre Dame is the independent irritant. The Irish defense fended off USC last week, and they too have made strides in narrowing the speed gap with opposing offenses. This year Brian Kelly’s offense will be tested in the second half. Temple and Boston College defenses will challenge the Irish. The season finale at Stanford just might be a CFP elimination game for both teams. If Notre Dame runs the table they will deserve a shot at the Final Four, but without a conference championship style points will count.
Last year’s College Football Playoff produced a three game scoring average of 47.66 – 25. There is no question that teams have to score points, and score them consistently, to power into the CFP and win a championship. Offenses dictate the pace of college football games, but ultimately tried and true defensive principles will prevail. Stop the run, punish the quarterback, and get your team off the field on third down. This year’s Big 10 and SEC conference championships take place indoors. The ACC and PAC 12 will play outdoors to determine their champions. Most of the other major games on the schedule are subject to the elements. An underdog with a solid defense and inclement weather at its back is a recipe for tempest in the polling. Spread offenses will continue to zig-zag their ways up and down the field in the closing weeks, but college football’s best teams will exhibit balance. Turnovers, field goals instead of touchdowns, and third down efficiency will determine which teams can run the gauntlet. Offenses might determine the field of the Final Four, but the fastest and most ferocious defenses will decide a worthy champion.
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