It might sound like a title of an Monty Python sketch, but the Truth really is”history never repeats” as the famous song from NZ band Split Enz goes. This is the 2015 Quarterfinals (not 2007)
With it’s intriguing historical significance, this quarterfinal fixture might be what many sports presenters want to focus on, what single sporting reference you recall in a lifetime but for most, 2007 is a bit of a misnomer. If you focus too closely, you might believe that a good kicking game will win you the competition.
Over the last eight years, we have seen the evolution of the kick-return and teams like New Zealand, France and Wales might be better suited to taking the highball now, so history; as in Cardiff, will not be any indicator of the winner here. In fact many All Blacks say that they enjoy playing there, with a great recent winning record.
The game has shifted, moved on and is a swifter product today that fans and television viewers enjoy more. And this whole Rugby World Cup (RWC) campaign has been popular throughout, the feeling of good will is the same from Swansea to Stanmore Bay.
The match-ups that we see in this series of matches over the next few days will re-direct the state of International Rugby. A balance will emerge if there is still a 50/50 split of teams on Monday–if not, then whichever hemisphere has that leverage can look towards better seeding for the next tournament. I know we should be focusing on Rugby, but politically a win in the RWC 2015 quarterfinals will give you preference going into Japan.
And wouldn’t English Rugby give anything to be able to determine their positioning at the next tournament.
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But looking at the next four games, overall I see the following outcomes –
#NZLvFRA
France have performed better than this current All Blacks team. That role reversal has been of concern to the World Champions, even as they are improving in their work.
On the field, France play an expansive game, use the ball more than most others and that skill base is natural. The coaching style and gameplan are still to be confirmed in practice, as recent history tells of a team under-achieving their likely goals. They want to be number one and might feel that a different direction could help them get there now, and ‘to hell’ with the authority of management.
In exact opposite, the Richie McCaw lead New Zealand side over the last four years have the most winning percentage than at any other time, including post 1987 World Cup winning side. That is where you see the ‘history’ theme emerging again. Similar results to the 1991 campaign cannot be ignored, because they too mis-stepped their way to a quarterfinal and then had ‘issues’ with management.
So if we consider the form book, France are working better over this campaign. The All Blacks might only be looking like they can get back to some form, the majority of their fanbase are certain of it so the poor lead-up matches will not make all those fans feel too confident.
If it were only for that, then we may be seeing more tri-colour flying on Saturday, but reportedly we hear of fractions emerging in the French camp. We hear it, even while it is not confirmed, so I don’ make any predictions based on vicious rumours. You have to go on recent results, which are in favour of the All Blacks. They have it over Les Bleus, and for mine I cannot see that trend ending overnight.
Outcome: Unlike a Monty Python skit, no ‘big foot’ will be lowered onto the Millennium Stadium floor in a Hollywood spectacle after the haka. This is not fiction, it is the World Cup and in sports the combined efforts of 15 players defeat the other. No script, just a battle.
By all accounts, the collected team are New Zealand. The steady side will be professional in their work and not be distracted by internal challenges. That will likely impede the French chances. That is the most likely scenario–but when have France in a World Cup ever been predictable.
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#IREvARG
In all honesty, the more fancied side are the Argentinians, who are fresh and more ready than their more pressured opponents.
Ireland have two things that should help them go farther in this tournament than ever before (1) Home ground advantage – that is if Millennium Stadium can ever be called ‘home’ and (2) They have a well coached side, more assured in tough matches.
Los Pumas have not always risen to the occasion, but look far better in 2015 after exposure to the Rugby Championship. Yes in 2007 they performed, placing third in a tournament that had more tries and points scored compared to this years. They themselves have scored some quality tries, more than the famed All Blacks in Pool play, so this year they are are a true challenge in the quarterfinals. With good leadership, they might turn over the damaged Irish team.
In favour of the Irish though, besides more local voices to cheer them towards an unfulfilled destiny, are a toughened group who might very well pool all their strengths to see off a brave fighter from South America. Of course they will kick, chase and batter themselves through the Argentine side. If they maintain discipline, than the experience in big encounters will help them overcome this important step in Irish Rugby history.
Outcome: Irish to make first appearance as a semifinalist. While Argentina will certainly not go home easily, it just seems their inconsistency will re-visit the lower ranked side.
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#SCOvAUS
The fourth ranked European side are the most improved. Give them all due credit, Scotland overcame both Japan and Samoa, so performed admirably to reach this stage. Will they go further?
If they were facing another, familiar Six Nations side then you would say their chances would be better. A known opponent would help Vern Cotter prepare in established ways. In facing Australia, they know less and will therefore be thinking outside their normal patterns.
Thinking outside the circle is what Michael Cheika has done for the 11 months he has been in charge of Australian Rugby, so to reach the final eight will secure his position until 2019 I’m sure. That coaching assurance will be a good thing, only if it continues with a couple of weapons removed.
Other teams have had to cope with injury, so it is no different for Scotland or for say Wales, but Australia have put quite a lot into the duel flanker strategy, backed up by an attacking fullback. The man at number fifteen is near to the pinnacle of that role, worldwide. Without David Pocock and Isreal Folau, you might see this side as incomplete. Not at their best, but still relatively more prepared to adapt than the men facing them. More accustomed to playing a winning brand, so consecutive wins is familiar ground and I can’t say that of Scotland.
Outcome: Many fans will imagine that the ‘Braveheart’ fighting spirit of Scotland can take them to heights not achieved for many years. That will certainly rally the players, but without any true attacking punch the Scots might fail [like Wales did] to penetrate the Wallabies. That will embolden the Australians and by the end, they should be able to attack freely.
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#WALvRSA
More feeling in a game can go both ways. Players who benefit from external motivaion can gain from the feeling in a game, in the crowd and from the referee. Other players do best when they stay on-task and use the in-built years of training to get them over the line.
Within the Welsh, lies a belief in their goals. They feel it more, and it means as much to their country as to their team culture. The Principality has a rich history, with emotion playing a strong part in the countries values. Together, they work as a team and have used that to their credit over the last few Six Nations campaigns.
From a different mentality, the Springbok culture is of devotion to the jersey. Of bleeding for their ideals and the platform laid over a century of struggle (both internal, and external measures imposed for a generation) Today, that is blended with a ‘rainbow nation’ approach of inclusion, so it has developed well but is still strongest when they are determined and concentrated.
If we look from a coaching level first: Wales have a more accomplished direction off the pitch, in Warren Gatland and his group. A combined wealth of Rugby and Rugby League knowledge have blended into a solid side that are strongest in set-play, rather than open running. Heyneke Meyer would be more suited to a construction site, overseeing all the hard work required to build a tower. He is organised, while at times can be faltered in apologizing for losing once too often. He can look impassioned when singing the national anthem, which Gatland has always looked uncomfortable during.
On the park, it will be a tough battle. Kicking again will be important, but in their goal kickers, they will each go for points so discipline will be a key. No penalties inside your own 40 metre line or it will cost you. You may not see too many tries scored, as Wales defended well last week but were impotent in crossing the line. Must improve in that area or South Africa will grow in confidence from that defencive strength.
Outcome: The heart says Wales, the head says South Africa. I know that is not a prediction, but I believe that more experience will pay in the end for the Springboks, with six players from the victorious 2007 side included. That will be vital in the end as the toll of injuries finally comes home to count on Wales.
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Last Word On Sports wishes each side all the best for this finals series.
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