The Houston Astros and the New York Yankees are both playoff teams, but they don’t have much time to celebrate their accomplishments. They’ll be the first two teams to play in the 2015 postseason when they meet tonight, and due to the wild card only being one game, one team will also end their postseason tonight.
Here’s our preview of the big game.
American League Wild Card Game
Houston Astros @ New York Yankees
Tuesday, October 6, at 8:00 PM EDT
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York
TV: ESPN
The Pitchers
The Yankees will send Masahiro Tanaka to the mound tonight, while the Astros will send Dallas Keuchel. On paper, it’s a huge mismatch. Keuchel is the American League’s Cy Young frontrunner, with an ERA of 2.48 and a league-leading 20 wins. He has the fourth best WAR in all of MLB. Tanaka has a 3.51 ERA, despite having a solid .994 WHIP. While Tanaka isn’t a bad pitcher, his 2015 pales in comparison to Keuchel’s dominant campaign.
Even though home/away splits haven’t proven to matter much, it gives Yankees fans a reason to be optimistic. Keuchel’s home/away splits are night and day. He has dominated at home with a 1.46 ERA, but has struggled on the road with a 3.77 ERA.
Keuchel also will be pitching on three days of rest, but it shouldn’t hinder him as much. Keuchel doesn’t rely on velocity enough to make short rest a major concern.
The Hitters
Both the Astros and the Yankees have solid offenses. The Yanks have scored 764 runs this season, which was good for second in all of MLB (Toronto, who won the AL East division, are first). Both teams have plenty of power. During the regular season, the Astros held a slugging percentage of .437 with 230 home runs, while the Yankees held slugging percentage of .421 with 212 home runs. Houston is second in MLB and the Yankees are fourth in both of those categories. The Yankees edge the Astros in batting average and on-base percentage, though neither team is stellar in either department. For both teams, power is the key.
With two potent offenses, it may just come down to who’s hotter on the night of the game.
In terms of how the ballpark will affect offense, it’s worth noting that Yankee Stadium favors the hitter while Minute Maid Park, the home of the Astros, favors the pitcher, meaning that the Astros offensive stats provide an inadequate representation of their skills at the plate. It also means that you should expect to see each of the stacked lineups going yard.
Intangibles
There is plenty to watch in this game. The Yankees, the game’s old guard, are living up to their reputation and will field a bunch of high-priced old guys in this matchup. The Astros, meanwhile, have one of the youngest teams in baseball and will rely on players like rookie Carlos Correa to perform under pressure they’ve never felt before.
Astros fans should also be leery of the way in which their team made the playoffs. The Astros seemed certain to win the AL West before late-season mediocrity caught up with them and forced them into the wild card. The Yankees have a similar story, but theirs is more understandable. The Toronto Blue Jays made big moves and fielded a red-hot team in the second half, so the Yankees drop in the standings doesn’t necessarily correlate to poor on-field performance in the same way that the Astros does.
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