One of the top questions since the CFP was announced was whether this new format would increase or decrease access for the “mid-majors” when it came to chances at winning a championship. We never saw a non-AQ given a chance in the BCS era, though TCU was perhaps one second away in 2009 (it would have been way too close to call between the Horned Frogs and Cincinnati in the BCS computers). We did, however, see non-AQs reach the Top 4. The question was whether that could continue into the CFP era.
CFP Implications: BYU States Its Case
Coming into last week, many were thinking that Boise State could be forcing that question to be asked. Boise State was not the first “BCS Buster”, but they were certainly the most famous and the most thought-of of that group. The Broncos won the Fiesta Bowl last year, returned 17 starters, and face two Power 5 teams in the nonconference (albeit not top ones). They also faced BYU, a solid and potentially year-end ranked team.
Well, the Cougars rode some “Mangum Magic” to a late win over Boise State and all of a sudden they have replaced the Broncos in the “CFP Crasher” conversation. And now BYU must be discussed if they run the table.
Of course, this could all become moot late Saturday night as the Cougars face their toughest test yet, a road trip against UCLA. But if they come through that with a win, this conversation that has been trickling through the college football world will immediately be placed front and center. And it should be.
The Cougars have one serious advantage that Boise State has never had: they have a much tougher schedule. BYU’s schedule is not quite as tough as your average Power 5 schedule, but it is certainly close. They will play four Power 5 teams this season, none of them pushovers. Nebraska, UCLA, and Missouri will all likely be ranked at some point this year and should all easily be bowl teams. Michigan is also probably a bowl team in Harbaugh’s first year, but they will probably not slip into the Top 25 at any point.
On top of that, though, BYU is playing some of the top teams from the Group of 5 conferences. They have already beaten Boise State, the cream of the Go5 crop. In addition to the Broncos, they will also face ECU, Cincinnati, and Utah State. Like I said, it’s not a power conference schedule, but that is eight teams who should be in (or very close to) the Top 50 when the year ends, which is more than enough to be in the same ballpark as contenders from power conferences.
The caveat for all teams attempting to become a “CFP Crasher” is that their performance is secondary to the rest of the country. The debate was always going to be about an undefeated Boise State against a 1-loss power conference champion. Maybe even a 2-loss SEC or Pac 12 champion could have been ahead of a Group of 5 team in the Playoff conversation.
BYU gets to avoid the worst of that, though. We can be pretty clear about where the Cougars stand. They will be behind any undefeated power conference champion. If there are four of those (which has never happened in college football history and probably never will), then the team from Provo will be left out. Barring that, though, their resume and schedule are just too good. It’s impossible to make promises about what the committee will do because there are no hard-and-fast rules and criteria that they go by, but this is pretty easy to tell. If BYU runs the table, they will be ahead of any 1-loss conference champion unless that champion is from the SEC (or maybe the Pac 12).
BYU fans will need to root for the teams on BYU’s schedule if they want to feel safer. It is very likely that at least one of Nebraska, UCLA, and Missouri will win their division. It is not unlikely that all three do. Those would be some major feathers in BYU’s cap. Those three are all more likely to end this season ranked than not, as is Boise State. Four ranked wins will be tough for 1-loss conference champions to compete with, especially in the Big XII, Big Ten, and ACC.
Even if BYU loses this week (or any other one week), though, all hope is not lost. They won’t be crashing the Playoff, but with this schedule an 11-1 BYU team should be pretty solidly assured of a Top 10 ranking. With four at-large spots in New Years’ Six bowls, it is very likely that a Top 10 ranking will be enough to get one of those berths. BYU has to know that their goals right now are pretty straightforward: win your next ten games, you are most likely Playoff-bound; win nine of those ten, and you’re probably heading to the Peach or Fiesta Bowls. These are lofty goals that were probably unthinkable when the season began. But after two weeks of magic and miracles, the Cougars are just one win away from these seeming more likely than not.
Main Photo: LINCOLN, NE – SEPTEMBER 5: during their game at Memorial Stadium on September 5, 2015 in Lincoln, Nebraska. (Photo by Eric Francis/Getty Images)
