Georgia-South Carolina: The Spurrier Effect

Last season, I predicted the Georgia-South Carolina game would be a blowout in favor of the Dawgs. The writing was on the wall: South Carolina got blown out against Texas A&M in Week 1 and they were in a battle with East Carolina that was not decided until a late South Carolina field goal in Week 2. The Gamecocks gave up 566.5 yards per game in those first two contests, while Georgia was coming off a dominating win over Clemson.

As it goes with the Steve Spurrier-coached Gamecocks, the game did not go as expected. Georgia lost 38-35 after some questionable play calling in the red zone, a missed field goal and a controversial 4th-and-inches conversion for South Carolina to ice the game.

The lesson: never underestimate the Spurrier Effect when he plays Georgia.

Take a look at the numbers for South Carolina against the Bulldogs before Spurrier took over in 2005. Georgia led the series 42-13-2. Since 2005, the Gamecocks are 5-5 against Georgia, taking four of the last five in the series. When Spurrier was the head coach at Florida from 1990-2001, the Gators went 11-1 against Georgia – an unprecedented run in a series Georgia dominated before 1990.

Fast forward to this year – the Georgia-South Carolina matchup is a hard one to predict. South Carolina lost quarterback Connor Mitch to a separated shoulder (he was also hospitalized for an infection stemming from a hip injury) in a loss to Kentucky. Georgia realized they have a bit more of a quarterback problem than originally thought, as starter Greyson Lambert got off to an 0-for-7 start and didn’t complete a pass until the third quarter in a win over Vanderbilt. On paper, Georgia – the No. 7 team in the country – should win this game handily. Even the betting lines tab Georgia a 16.5-point favorite. But if Dawg fans have learned anything over the last 25 seasons, when it’s Steve Spurrier on the opposing sideline, all bets are off.

Let’s take a look at South Carolina’s performance in the loss to Kentucky last week. In the first half, Kentucky sprinted to a 24-7 lead and gained 307 yards on offense, leaving the home crowd stunned. Nothing worked for the Gamecocks in the first half – the defense got gashed in the secondary and on the ground, and the offense was middling, at best. In the second half, Kentucky played much more conservative football, while South Carolina played aggressively on offense and defense. The result: a near-miraculous comeback. South Carolina’s defense was much improved in the second half, allowing just four first downs after halftime, and the offense under backup quarterback Perry Orth was more effective. Still, South Carolina was forced to settle for three field goals in the red zone, Orth threw a horrendous interception late, and the Gamecocks couldn’t knock off the Wildcats.

Georgia – against Vanderbilt – played extremely well on defense. The Dawgs might have the best linebacker corps in the country, led by Leonard Floyd and Jordan Jenkins. If they can tighten up a little in the secondary, this Georgia defense will be special. The offense is what scares Georgia fans as they look to tougher opponents like Alabama and Tennessee. Let’s start with the positives. The ground game is phenomenal, as expected, as Georgia running backs have rushed for 507 yards on 74 carries, nearly 7 yards per carry. Nick Chubb leads the way with 35 carries for 309 yards, an 8.8 yard average per carry. Also, running back Sony Michel is showing his value in the passing game, and oft-injured wide receiver Malcolm Mitchell is back to making an impact. The offense could all fall apart, though, without consistent quarterback play. Against Louisiana Monroe, it looked like Greyson Lambert was the answer under center. He made crisp throws and limited his mistakes. Against Vandy, it was a different story. Lambert looked erratic and he was quick to leave the pocket with pressure in his face. He did improve in the second half – though it couldn’t get much worse after an 0-for-7 first half – but any confidence the fans had in him was lost. Georgia head coach Mark Richt and the rest of the coaching staff said the offense looks solid in practice, but that doesn’t matter to fans if it doesn’t translate on the field.

Here is a look at the quarterback numbers for both Greyson Lambert and backup Brice Ramsey in 2015:

Lambert’s 7.8 yards per attempt is not going to get the job done against the tougher SEC teams. Georgia and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will need to start airing it out and running some deeper routes for this offense to be successful. If Georgia checks it down or doesn’t run plays past the sticks in the passing game, it will get more difficult for the offensive line to clear running lanes for Nick Chubb and company.

Both Georgia and South Carolina enter Saturday’s game with question marks on offense. This year, however, the edge goes to Georgia because of their dominant running game and attacking defense. If the Dawgs can force Orth to make a couple mistakes by changing up the formations and getting pressure on him, expect them to win on the strength of their defense alone. As it goes with Steve Spurrier, do not expect a blowout win for Georgia (they won’t likely cover the 16.5 point spread), but do expect Georgia to move to 3-0 as they take down the Gamecocks at home, “Between the Hedges”. Georgia-South Carolina this year will be another heated battle in an increasingly big rivalry.