Comparing the 2015 Columbus Crew SC Attack to Last Year’s

The Columbus Crew SC attack certainly got a much-needed boost when it was announced Kei Kamara was joining the club last October. After struggling to find a bona fide target man up front in Gregg Berhalter’s 4-2-3-1 formation for much of 2014, it was hoped that the addition of Kamara would give the club some added firepower in the box a season later.

With over 75 percent of the season complete, I think it’s safe to say “mission accomplished” in that regard.

The 31-year-old Sierra Leone international currently leads the league with 18 goals, a mark which has shattered his previous career-high of 11 back in 2012 when he was a member of Sporting Kansas City. He’s also added seven assists, forming a potent partnership with right winger Ethan Finlay with both regularly helping one another find the back of the net.

Finlay has assisted on six Kamara goals, making that the best assist to goal combination in MLS. Consequently, Kamara has been the set-up man on four of Finlay’s tallies which is second-best league-wide.

Clearly, the two have made each other better and it shows in the fact that together they account for nearly 48 percent of Crew SC’s 96 total goals and assists on the year so far. Finlay did heat up late last year, with six of his 11 goals coming in the Black and Gold’s 8-2-1 finish to the 2014 campaign. Still, having Kamara as that “bull in a china shop” number nine up top that can score every which way while drawing defenders and creating space for others to score has benefited Finlay immensely.

With six games remaining in the regular season, Columbus has scored a total of 45 goals. To put that in perspective, since the league went to a 34 game schedule in 2011, the club has only exceeded that number once. For the purposes of this discussion, that season’s important because it was last year when Crew SC put up 52 goals.

What we’re going to do here is compare the current season with last year’s campaign with some deeper analytics to see how much key players in the Crew SC attack are contributing this year relative to 2014. Since Kamara wasn’t in the league last year, we’ll use that 2012 season for SKC we mentioned above. Other players we’ll take a look at include Finlay, left winger Justin Meram, central attacking midfielder Federico Higuain, and defensive midfielder Tony Tchani.

The primary metrics to pay attention to are expected goals and assists. What exactly are we talking about here? Basically, the scoring areas of a soccer field are divided into sections. You’re more likely to score in certain sections relative to others and so this is what expected goals/assists is trying to measure.

For example, the penalty box is divided into nine roughly rectangular zones that are essentially six yards deep. You obviously have a much better chance scoring within those two areas directly in front of goal, essentially the six-yard box and the zone directly behind. As such, shots taken there will impact expected goals much more than, say, a blast 25-30 yards away from net.

The following is a key to understanding each statistic being discussed. I’m going to assume goals and assists are self-explanatory so I won’t include a description of those.

Also, I have to give credit to the website American Soccer Analysis that includes a lot of the data I used to put together the charts below. If you haven’t done so already, be sure to visit this highly informational site that provides a lot of really useful content about the teams and players within the league that very few other outlets do.

Shots/90: total number of shots per 90 minutes of action [shots/(total minutes/90)]

UnAst%: percentage of shots taken that were unassisted

KeyP/90: number of passes that lead to a shot per 90 minutes of action [key passes/(total minutes/90)]

xGoals: expected goals

G-xG: difference between goals and expected goals

xAssists: expected assists

xG+xA: sum of expected goals and assists

Kei Kamara 2012 vs. Kei Kamara 2015

Two things stand out here.

Firstly, Kamara appears to have become a much less selfish striker in Columbus as indicated by the fact the number of unassisted shots he’s taken is half what it was in 2012 for SKC. And it’s not that he’s taking less of them, as indicated by shots/90.

Second, he appears to be finishing much more of his chances in 2015. Three years earlier, Kamara had the second worst G-xG in the league amongst players who appeared in at least two-thirds of his respective club’s matches. That tells me his goal-scorer’s touch has vastly improved along with the fact he’s finding space behind opposing defenders much more efficiently.

Ethan Finlay 2014 vs. Ethan Finlay 2015

Finlay has emerged into one of the most dynamic attacking wingers in the league. His play has many fans clamoring for his inclusion into the USMNT system sooner rather than later. Can you imagine him as a second half sub for Gyasi Zardes or DeAndre Yedlin? Those are some fresh legs that could make a difference late in games.

If there’s anything that can be taken away from the above stats, it’s that Finlay has had an extremely efficient 2015. Despite creating fewer chances, more of them (like, a lot more!) are resulting in goals. I mean, that should be readily apparent considering he’s nearly doubled his assist total from last season with six games to spare.

Justin Meram 2014 vs. Justin Meram 2015

Much like Finlay, Meram caught fire late last season. Five of his eight goals were scored during that emphatic ten-game run to close out the year. It shouldn’t come as a surprise how high his G-xG was considering the term “meat hook shot” became synonymous with how Meram was beating opposing goalkeepers.

Want an example? Take a look at this laser he fired past the Los Angeles Galaxy’s Jaime Penedo in the club’s 4-1 win that, in many respects, turned around their season after a less than impressive run of summer results.

Meram has had trouble rekindling that form in 2015 and the deeper analytics confirm this. After nearly doubling his expected output in terms of goals and assists last year, his contribution to the Crew SC score sheet is about 84% of what is anticipated.

Federico Higuaín 2014 vs. Federico Higuaín 2015

If there’s anything to read into Pipa’s year-over-year stats, it’s that he’s been the mark of consistency. Even though his chance generation stats have fallen off a tad, the fact his G-xG has hovered on the right end of zero both seasons demonstrates he’s doing pretty much what the algorithms used to calculate this stuff are expecting.

I think that’s what you really want out of your number ten: cool, calm and collected creativity. It’s that kind of demeanor when he’s possessing the ball at the top of the box that draws defenders in and creates that added room for his teammates make things happen with the ball at their feet.

Tony Tchani 2014 vs. Tony Tchani 2015

Much like Kamara, 2015 is turning out to be a career year for Tchani. He has already scored more goals this season (five) than in his previous seven in the league combined. Of particular interest here is the increase in G-xG on a year-over-year basis which was among the worst in the league in 2014 but is currently third-best amongst players with 2,000 or more minutes (behind Benny Feilhaber and Sebastian Giovinco).

It should be clear, though, that Tchani isn’t necessarily on the field to score goals. As a holding midfielder, his job is to be the focal point of distribution downfield in tandem with fellow d-mid Wil Trapp. We see this in his double-digit touch percentage.

However, Tchani is less tethered to any one part of the field and is more free to roam than Trapp, who’s more that pure number six that shields the back four. As such, he has more leeway to push forward and find scoring opportunities which he’s done better this year than arguably at any other point in his career.

The advanced metrics indicate to me that if these five players can continue to maintain their current pace, the Black and Gold should be in good shape offensively heading into the Eastern Conference playoffs. Now, if they can just figure out the defensive side of things.

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