As the NFL season is right around the corner, optimism is at its finest. Every team is 0-0, tied for first place. No team has been eliminated from the postseason yet. Every rivalry’s bragging rights are still up for the taking. Every player could have THAT career-defining year. The point of these articles is to give every team’s hopeful season and every team’s disaster season. While some teams’ best scenarios involve Super Bowls, other teams are simply hoping for signs of great potential from young players. I will disregard injuries in worst case scenarios (unless talking about an injury-prone player) because obviously anyone can get injured in football. This article will focus on the four AFC South teams: Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville and Houston.
Best and worst case scenarios in the AFC South
Indianapolis Colts
Best Case: Andrew Luck continues his ascension, becoming the best quarterback of the 2015 NFL season. Your 2015 MVP will humbly give credit to all his teammates, but lets be real, he is an absolute stud. Luck throws for over 5000 yards to his stacked arsenal of weapons and makes it look easy. The defense is improved, and shutdown corner Vontae Davis is just as good as always. Indianapolis wins the AFC South, gets homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, and defeats any combination of New England, Pittsburgh, Denver and any other challenger. Indianapolis has paid their dues: wildcard weekend in 2013, divisional weekend in 2014, and conference championship weekend in 2015. The logic suggests that Super Bowl weekend features Indianapolis in 2016.
Worst Case: The Colts are talented but not efficient. Luck is obviously a stud, and does enough to get Indianapolis to the playoffs in a weak division, but the team has a first round exit. Many believed the Colts should have drafted a defensive player in the first round because of their 45-7 thrashing in Foxborough in January. Yet the Colts made an interesting choice in wide receiver Phillip Wheeler out of Miami, a talented slot receiver who reminds many of TY Hilton. It looked like a smart move, as Hilton is in a contract year. Yet Hilton signed a five-year extension, and now Luck almost has TOO many weapons. This defense, outside of Vontae Davis, struggles against the other elite teams in the NFL. Sure, making the playoffs isn’t a bad thing, as I can’t imagine them not winning the AFC South. But compared to the expectations for this squad in 2015, a first round exit would be a disappointment.
Tennessee Titans
Best Case: The Titans are competitive in 2015. Will they make the playoffs? Almost no chance. Can new quarterback Marcus Mariota have a RG3-like rookie year and show serious promise? Absolutely. Mariota has weapons like Kendall Wright, Delanie Walker, Justin Hunter and Bishop Sankey to work with. Mariota thrives off of a quick-hit system, so expect short to intermediate route trees for the receiving core. Obviously, Mariota also has very good mobility and we begin to see flashed of Russell Wilson in Mariota. Mariota made good decisions and can extended plays in college so he does the same thing in Tennessee. The Titans get six wins in 2015, but the fan base knows they have a franchise quarterback to work with.
Worst Case: Tennessee really struggles to find a rhythm on offense or defense. Oregon’s label as a “system-offense” proves to be true as Mariota struggles to translate his game to the NFL. He has no weapons either, and Sankey does not run well again, so Mariota is basically helpless. The defense cannot stop teams, and the Titans are the doormat of the AFC. The team wins two games and has the first pick in the draft.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Best Case: First off, the Jaguars are praying for a healthy recovery for first round pick and defensive end Dante Fowler Jr. This guy was a stud in college and everyone was ecstatic to see his game translate to the NFL, so if he stays on course and returns 100% in 2016, the Jaguars will be thrilled. Meanwhile, head coach Gus Bradley is in his third year and his system looks much improved. The defense is not great, but takes another step forward led by playmakers like Sen’Derrick Marks and Telvin Smith. On offense, quarterback Blake Bortles is better and shows he can be a great game manager in the NFL. He has young weapons around him like wide receivers Marquise Lee and Allen Robinson as well as new target Julius Thomas. Add in recently drafted TJ Yeldon and this offense is capable of scoring this year. The Jaguars don’t make the playoffs, but they win six games and will be much better in 2016 with Fowler Jr. and another new draftee.
Worst Case: Having a lot of youth on your team is a great, but youth and potential does not always pan out. Young talented players like Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson have lots of potential, but will they show progress in year two? In order for Bortles to thrive, the pass protection must improve. The team allowed 71 sacks in 2014, easily the most in the league. Bortles is never going to become a good quarterback if he continues to get hit at this rate. The Jaguars also have had one of the worst offenses in the league in each of the last four years, never being better than 29th in overall yardage. The team continues to struggle on offense and the Jaguars have another top three selection in the 2016 NFL draft.
Houston Texans
Best Case: Last season’s Texans were led by a formidable defense that did just about everything for them. The team features arguably the best player in football, J.J. Watt, who can do everything from sacking the quarterback to catching touchdowns on offense. Houston forced a league-high 34 turnovers in 2014, giving great field position to their offense and even scoring points themselves. Add in a healthy Jadaveon Clowney and this defense is even better. Despite Arian Foster being out for an extended period of time AGAIN, DeAndre Hopkins takes a major step forward as the team’s number one offensive weapon. The Texans offense doesn’t have to be great; as long as they limit turnovers and capitalize off of good field position, this Houston team can win games. Will they overtake the Colts? Unlikely. Can they win a wildcard spot? It is possible if everything comes together.
Worst Case: The Texans have been plagued with mediocre quarterback play recently and have had to rely a lot on the run game. However, their workhorse, Arian Foster, literally cannot stay healthy. Therefore, the team has to rely on other players like Alfred Blue and Jonathan Grimes to move the ball. Will an offense led by Brian Hoyer, Alfred Blue and DeAndre Hopkins score enough points every week to win games? Probably not. J.J. Watt is incredible and the Texans defense generated an insane amount of turnovers last year. However, repeating again as the leaders in turnovers forced doesn’t happen for the Texans in 2015. Arian Foster is so injury-prone that the Texans decide to cut him, and former first overall pick Jadaveon Clowney is not what he used to be after injury. The Texans win six games and take a step backwards in 2015.
