How many awards in all of sports can you think of that actively penalize the potential recipients for being too good at their respective jobs? If a player has a great season, that is all he will be judged on when being considered for the MVP. A rookie who excels will win Rookie of the Year despite where he may have been drafted (or not). No player will ever be excluded from an All-Star game appearance because he is having too good of a season. Manager of the year (and coach of the year throughout sports) is seemingly the one award that considers expectations almost more than production. This is why most people have Joe Maddon winning NL Manager of the year award this season. How can a manager who turns around a last place team into a playoff squad not be manager of the year? That answer is actually pretty easy in regards to this season. That answer is Mike Matheny.
If you choose to look at only how well a manager exceeds preseason expectations, Joe Maddon might seem like the easy choice to win the award. His team is projected to win 92 games this season and make the playoffs; a 19 win improvement from last season’s dreadful Cubs team. To credit Maddon for much of this improvement is largely misleading. Firstly, according to Baseball Reference, of the Cubs 8 most valuable hitters by WAR, only two of them were on the team last year: Anthony Rizzo and Chris Coghlan. The rest (Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, Dexter Fowler, Miguel Montero and David Ross) were all either offseason acquisitions or rookie call-ups who did not appear in the majors last season. Their second best pitcher, John Lester, was also a offseason signing. Prior to the season beginning, Fangraphs projected the Cubs to win 84 games. They are currently projected to win 92. While an eight game difference is nothing to sneeze and would probably be good enough to win the award in most seasons, it pales in comparison to the 12 games the Cardinals are projected to finish above their preseason Fangraphs projection of 88 wins. Even if you didn’t believe the Cubs would be this good, there is no denying that the team Maddon inherited going into this season was already far better off than the Cubs team that ended last year.
Even when factoring in other possibly criteria for which a manager should be judged, Matheny and the Cardinals are excelling in almost every way.. The Cardinals have the best record in all of baseball against teams over .500 at 32-19. They have the best run-differential in the NL at +124, almost 60 runs greater than the next best team in the NL and over 90 runs greater than the Cubs run differential. The Cardinals also have the second best road record and third best record in one run games, though the Cubs currently are ranked first and second in those categories respectively. Lastly, it is important to note that in the history of the NL Manager of the Year award (since 1983), only twice has a manager won the award while finishing below second place. The Cubs are currently sitting in third while the Cardinals have a six game lead on the Pirates who have the second best record in the NL and they have five more wins than the next best team in baseball, the Royals.
What makes Mike Matheny’s candidacy this year even more remarkably is how extraordinary the team has played despite suffering signnificant injuries to key players on the roster. According to the recent update from ManGamesLost.com, the Cardinals have the highest “Time Missed Impact to Team”; their proprietary metric that “that attempts to quantify the impact of a player not playing for their team due to injury. A higher TMITT number equals a greater impact of injured players to the team”. The Cardinals currently have the highest TMITT whereas the Cubs have the 7th highest. Looking at the Cardinals injuries this year, this seems to pass the smell test. The Cardinals have suffered significant injuries to Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday, Matt Adams, Jordan Walden, Jon Jay, Jaime Garcia, Marco Gonzales, Matt Belisle and now rookie of the year candidate Randal Grichuk. For any team to overcome these injuries would be remarkable, but for a team to win 100 games as the Cardinals are projected despite these injuries; surely the manager deserves a ton of credit for this.
Matheny candidacy for the award shouldn’t be affected by previously leading the Cardinals to two straight NLCS appearances. What the Cardinals have done this year despite the injuries is remarkable. Matheny has also helped manage a pitching staff that is having a historically great season and is on pace to win 104 games in an era where only the 2011 Phillies have won more than 100 games in the NL since the Cardinals last accomplished it in 2005. Mike Matheny may not be the flashy pick but given the season the Cardinals are having, he should be easy choice to win the award.
Photo Credit: MINNEAPOLIS, MN – JUNE 17: Mike Matheny #26 of the St. Louis Cardinals looks on against the Minnesota Twins on June 17, 2015 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Twins defeated the Cardinals 3-1. (Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images)
