Andy Murray helped himself out in a lot of ways when he defeated Novak Djokovic for the Rogers Cup title on Sunday. First of all, it was his first victory over Djokovic in what feels like forever (it’s actually only been two years–since 2013 Wimbledon). He won his second Masters 1000 title of the year, a feat he hasn’t accomplished since 2011. It also qualified Murray for the World Tour Finals in London in November. And, with the most immediate impact, he has taken a pretty commanding lead in the race for the US Open #2 seed.
Novak Djokovic has the #1 seed locked up for this year’s US Open and a good number of Masters and Slams in the foreseeable future after that (it is mathematically possible but highly unlikely that anyone catches him before Indian Wells of 2016). This means, of course, that the #2 seed is guaranteed to avoid him until the final. And even though Murray just defeated Djokovic and even though Federer beat Djokovic in Dubai earlier this year, both would love to avoid him for as long as possible.
With his win in Montreal and the 1000 points that that victory accrued, Murray has a 415-point lead on Federer as the tournament begins. This means that all Murray needs to do is reach the final to guarantee his #2 seed in the US Open. Of course, since Murray and Federer are on the same side of the draw, if Federer reaches the final that means that, by definition, Murray will not. Federer needs to earn 420 pointe more than Murray here to get himself that #2 seed. A runner-up in Cincinnati is worth 600 points; a title is worth 1000. Since a semifinal is only worth 360 points, Federer needs to reach the final to earn the #2 seed. If Murray reaches the semifinal, Federer will need to win the whole tournament. If Murray loses before that, then all Federer needs to do for the #2 seed is to reach the final.
There are plenty of other important seed cut-offs at the US Open, though, and with up to 1000 points on the table in Cincinnati, plenty of shake-ups can occur this week. #4 is the next most important cut-off, because the top 4 seeds cannot meet each other until the semis. Last year’s runner-up, Kei Nishikori, currently holds the #4 spot. However, he has withdrawn from Cincinnati with a hip injury, leaving his #4 seed at the US Open in question (assuming he is healthy enough to compete in New York). Only one player is within striking range of that #4 spot, though. If Stan Wawrinka captures the title in Cincinnati, he will also earn the US Open #4 seed. Otherwise, though, the seed is Nishikori’s to hold on to.
14-time Grand Slam champion (and 2-time US Open champion) Rafael Nadal currently sits at World #8 as Cincinnati. The top eight seeds int he tournament are guaranteed to not meet each other until the quarterfinals. Those seeded 9-12, though, will meet the 5-8 seeds in the fourth round. Nadal is safely within the top 12, so he cannot meet Djokovic in the fourth round, but if Marin Cilic can pass him for that #8 spot he still could meet Cilic or Tomas Berdych in the US Open 4th Round. Of course, with both Nishikori and David Ferrer potentially injured, we could see some seeds slide up when the actual US Open draw is made.
The lower we get in the rankings, the more a deep Cincinnati run can shift things. There is only one spot I want to look at. Grigor Dimitrov currently sits at World #17, 230 points behind #16 Kevin Anderson. Unless Dimitrov can reach the semifinals or better here, he will be the #17 seed at the US Open (assuming no one in front of him withdraws). He is in the middle of a horrendous season but he is still incredibly talented. If he can turn things around, he will be very dangerous for whichever higher seed is unfortunate enough to draw him in the third round of the US Open.
Jeremy Chardy currently sits in the #32 slot as the final seed with his phenomenal semifinal run in Montreal. American Jack Sock is chasing him for that final seed, though, sitting just 50 points behind him. Chardy will have to face Rafael Nadal in the second round in Cincinnati, but just winning his first-round match would guarantee the Frenchman the final seed unless Sock can reach the quarterfinals, which would likely have to include a win over Roger Federer. Leonardo Mayer, Thomaz Bellucci, Sam Querrey, and Fernando Verdasco are all within striking distance of #32, but any of those players would need to be a surprise quarterfinalist in Cincinnati to close the gap.
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