Although it may happen more than we realize, it seemed odd that Jonathan Lucroy – or perhaps more appropriately, Jonathan Lucroy’s agent – recently approached the Milwaukee Brewers’ management with a proposal for a contract extension. The Brewers shot it down immediately, according to the report. However, there was motive for each side to act in the manner they did. It’s far from shocking that nothing happened. While it may not seem like it, the best deal was no deal for both the Brewers and Lucroy.
No Deal: The Brewers and Jonathan Lucroy
For Lucroy, the proposal could have been just to monitor the reaction from the Brewers’ brass. With the MLB trade deadline looming, the more GM Doug Melvin & Co. considered the extension, the more Lucroy could feel safe about staying in Milwaukee long term. It was an attempt in good faith to commit to Milwaukee long-term, probably at a discount. But with no deal, he stands to make more money once he becomes a free agent. That’s not to say it’s a sure bet he gets traded because no deal was reached, but not agreeing to a deal keeps the Brewers’ cooler of options better stocked.
This is the time of year where virtually every ball club has to decide if it’s a buyer or seller. The Brewers have played well as of late, but there’s not enough season left to make up for an awful start – Lucroy suffering a broken foot being a part of those problems. It can be a bit deceiving to look at the standings and calculate the Brewers being around ten games out of the second wild card spot. Although still very unlikely, that feat has been accomplished before. What makes it so unlikely, however, is the number of teams Milwaukee has to jump to get there. Only the Marlins, Rockies, and Phillies are below Milwaukee, that makes the probability of a playoff run near zero.
For Lucroy and his rep(s), it was worth a shot to see if the club would bite on a long-term deal. They tried catch the Brewers at a weak moment, with an uncertain future. But the way the Brewers see it, an uncertain future isn’t a bad thing. The only players on the books past next season on the Brewers’ roster are Matt Garza and Ryan Braun. Even with those two, dealing them would not be all that hard, although getting equal value – especially for Braun – might be a little tougher. Point being: The Brewers’ long-term game plan appears to be to rebuild and remain as flexible as possible with their payroll. They have made the playoffs a couple times recently, and those teams were built primarily with players drafted and brought up through their own farm system. Along the way, they used the depth of said farm system to supplement the team via trades. GM Doug Melvin was able to deal for CC Sabathia and Zack Greinke in different seasons, each of those trades being highly successful, providing Milwaukee with the firepower it needed to reach the postseason. It was a bit of a deal with the devil though, as it left their system depleted of talent, and little to make further deals. Thus, the downturn this year was a bit of a reparation for past moves. Lucroy’s willingness to sign on long-term could have been attractive to a team with such uncertainty.
Although Lucroy has over-achieved in every way possible, it is getting harder to envision him squatting behind home plate at Miller Park for the home team for as long as his proposed contract would have kept him there. Nobody in Milwaukee wants to trade Lucroy, but it would make a lot of sense. Many fans consider him to be one of the few, if only “untouchable” on the Brewers as the trade deadline looms. But often fans make their hypothetical trades with more emotion than logic. Lucroy’s deal pays him a total of $2.2 million this season, which is tenth on the Brewers, behind Neal Cotts … pretty crazy if you think about it. After this season, he is set to see $4 million next season, followed by a team option of $5.25 million that will surely be picked up by whichever club holds it, as long as Lucroy is anyway near the player he has been and is now. That makes him a very affordable – and attractive – trade asset. At the end of the deal, he will be 31 years old, and possibly looking at a positional shift to first base then. Should that happen, his value compared to other first basemen plummets as opposed to the value he has as a catcher. Would the Brewers really want to pony up for a catcher/first baseman who by then will most certainly tip-toeing toward the back end of his career?
To backtrack a bit, when fans of a non-contending team look at whom their team’s trade pieces are, often the approach is a bottom-to-top method. Start with the guys you don’t care about, the role players, see who would be available and what they could fetch in a trade, and work your way up. This is flawed logic though, because if a team is serious about rebuilding, and not a team that can buy their way back into contention like the Dodgers or Yankees, the approach should be top-down. Start with your most valuable assets, and see what you can get in return. Lucroy is the Brewers most valuable asset. The road to rebuilding Milwaukee back into a contender starts by accumulating good young players and developing them, probably at the cost of dealing some of their best players now.
Professional sports is often filled with times where emotion and logic cannot co-exist. SIgning Lucroy would have been done with emotion. He’s out-played his current contract, he’s a fan favorite, a great talent at a position that lacks it, and a guy who you never have to be worried about getting into trouble for on or off-field shenanigans, but not agreeing to a long-term deal is logical. It preserves his sky-high trade value and keeps the Brewers flexible. Lucroy may not be traded this season, he may never be traded, but with Milwaukee being a trade deadline seller due to being in the NL cellar, this might be a case of the deal not done being the best deal for both sides.
PITTSBURGH, PA – SEPTEMBER 21: Catcher Jonathan Lucroy #20 of the Milwaukee Brewers bats during a game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on September 21, 2014 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The Pirates defeated the Brewers 1-0. (Photo by George Gojkovich/Getty Images)
