In general, predicting important games before a season starts is a risky proposition. Last year, the Week 1 matchup between South Carolina and Texas A&M looked like a potential clash between year-end Top 15 teams. Instead, it turned out to be a fight between year-end unranked teams. Also, since teams play games and not conferences, “importance” can mean different things in different situations. For example, Ohio State’s opening game against Virginia Tech probably means very little on its own for the Buckeyes, aside from the revenge factor. If Ohio State runs the table after an opening loss, they’re still basically guaranteed a spot in the playoffs, unless we have four other undefeated Power 5 champions. On the other hand, it would look awful for the Big Ten as a whole if their champion lost to Virginia Tech two years in a row. Because of the inherent problems in attending to compare different levels and types of “importance”, I’m not going to rank the biggest nonconference games of the year. Instead, I’m going to go through every week of nonconference games and point out the games that should mean the most to the conference over the course of the season. (Aside from games by Penn State and Rutgers against Army, no Big Ten team plays a nonconference game after Week 4.)
The Big Ten’s Biggest Nonconference Games in 2015
Week 1
This is by far the biggest week for the Big Ten. Five of the conference’s teams play Power 5 opponents and Nebraska hosts BYU. It is a chance for the conference to make a huge opening statement in terms of public opinion or for them, like in Week 2 last year, to fall completely on their faces. Can the Big Ten build off the postseason momentum that Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State brought last year? Or does the conference come crashing immediately down to Earth?
Michigan at Utah (Thursday September 3rd, 8:30 PM, Fox Sports 1)
Believe it or not, but this may actually be the Big Ten’s most important game of the nonconference season, as far as brand is concerned. It has been too long for the conference without Michigan being relevant. And while Ohio State fans are rejoicing, the conference office is in mourning. Michigan is one of the biggest brands in college football. When they do better, everyone does better. After making huge waves in an offseason and with expectations skyrocketing under new coach Jim Harbaugh, it’s up to Michigan to finally live up to their brand. The Wolverines will be underdogs in this game, but a win will go a huge way towards pushing themselves to national relevance again. They’re still a few seasons away from competing with Ohio State and Michigan State, but unless they do better than last year’s lackluster loss to the Utes, Michigan will spend another year out of the national spotlight.
TCU at Minnesota (Thursday, 9 PM, ESPN)
The Golden Gophers have everything to gain and nothing to lose, facing the likely preseason #1 or #2 at home to open the season. Still, a win here would be huge for a conference that is still looking for marquee regular-season nonconference wins. No one might be talking about the Big Ten’s lack of those wins right now because of what happened last bowl season, but I guarantee it will be a talking point when the committee is making their selections next December if no one picks up a major win again this year. A win here would stop that conversation before it starts. More importantly, though, Minnesota is trending upwards in the Big Ten and an embarrassing Week 1 loss won’t do them or the conference any good.
Alabama vs Wisconsin (Saturday, 8 PM, ABC, in Arlington, Texas)
When you play Alabama in Week 1, you get on this list. Alabama is due to have a down year eventually, but no one is going to predict it while Nick Saban is coach. That means that playing Alabama in the nonconference is still the biggest challenge in college football in any given year right now. Wisconsin can make a statement for both them and the conference that last year’s postseason was no fluke. More than that, though, Wisconsin has a relatively easy schedule to follow this game. If the Badgers end up 12-1 with a Big Ten title and a nonconference win over Alabama, they will be sitting pretty when playoff selection time rolls around.
Week 2
Big Ten schools actually play four more games against Power 5 schools in Week 2, but they are nowhere near the caliber of the Week 1 matchups. In fact, it seems as if all of the Big Ten’s most-notable nonconference games (except for the one right below) were in Week 1. Rutgers/Wazzu just doesn’t have the same ring to it as Wisconsin/Bama, does it?
Oregon at Michigan State (Saturday, 8 PM, ABC)
In just terms of the course of this season, this is the biggest game for the Big Ten conference. This game represents the best chance, as far as we can guess, of a conference getting two teams into the playoff. Now, we have no idea if the committee will really even consider putting two teams from the same conference in. But if they do, the Big Ten’s dream scenario hinges on this game. If Michigan State goes 11-1 with a loss to undefeated Ohio State and a nonconference win over Pac 12 champion Oregon, it would be hard to keep them out. Michigan State should be even better than last year and Oregon will probably lose a step while replacing Marcus Mariota, so this is a real chance for Mark Dantonio’s Spartans. Winning the other ten games against teams not named Ohio State is no given either, but the dream starts in East Lansing in Week 2. The Big Ten doesn’t want to see it end there either.
Weeks 3 and 4
As the teams gear up to get into their conference schedules, we are seeing far fewer high-profile nonconference games. This is not really due to feasting on cupcakes, though. There are actually five (five!) matchups between the Big Ten and ACC in Week 3, creating a nice miniature Big Ten/ACC Challenge for football. On top of that, Big Ten schools will play three more Power 5 opponents in Week 4. Still, there is one more matchup that should matter to the conference, though not for reasons you might expect.
Pitt at Iowa (Saturday, September 19th, 8 PM, BTN)
Iowa is always a tough team to predict under Kirk Ferentz. They have had shockingly excellent years and decidedly poor ones. Unfortunately, most of the last five seasons have fallen into the latter category. Still, if the Big Ten office had to peg one team that is most likely to make the league look bad, they have to look at the Hawkeyes. I mean this as no disrespect to the Hawkeyes. They are far from the worst team in the Big Ten. They are, however, the perfect storm of what a team needs to make their league look bad. They are a talented team with a very easy schedule. Including a tough road game against Wisconsin to start their Big Ten season, it is not hard to imagine them being 6-1 heading into their season finale against Nebraska, as they drew Indiana and Maryland as cross-division opponents. If there is one thing the Big Ten does not want this year, it’s a Big Ten West champion with a loss to Pitt. Iowa has the potential to be good enough to win the West. They also have the potential to be bad enough to lose to Pitt. What the conference really does not want to see is both of those happening.
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