One thing which takes the headlines during the F1 summer break is the driver market. With just two teams having unchanged line-ups for next season confirmed, there’s much speculation surrounding who will fill the other 18 spots on the grid. Some drivers already have their contracts for next season sorted, but an existing contract can mean very little in Formula One. I also put down who I feel will be in the two seats for each team. With Kimi Raikkonen being a key player, the 2016 Formula 1 driver market is one filled with much speculation surrounding him and whether a Finn will replace him, as he replaced Mika Hakkinen back in 2002.
Mercedes
Current drivers:
Lewis Hamilton (Has contract until 2018)
Nico Rosberg (Has contract until at least 2016)
Linked:
N/A
One thing which is pretty much set in stone for next season is that the dominant partnership of Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg will not change. Both drivers have contracts until at least the end of next season.
I say: unless war breaks out, it will without a doubt be Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg there next season.
Ferrari
Current drivers:
Sebastian Vettel (Has contract until 2017)
Kimi Räikkönen
Linked:
Nico Hülkenberg (Force India)
Valtteri Bottas (Williams)
Jean-Eric Vergne (Ferrari – test driver)
Romain Grosjean (Lotus)
Daniel Ricciardo (Red Bull)
Max Verstappen (Toro Rosso)
Ferrari however, is where the mess really starts. Kimi Räikkönen, who has somewhat underperformed since his comeback, finishing ahead of his team mates on just three occasions since, is out of contract at the end of the year, and many are expecting him to be replaced. Who could replace him however is very much speculation at this point. Valtteri Bottas and Nico Hülkenberg, who are both supposedly out of contract at the end of the year (some confusion on the Bottas side though – more on this later) are the two frontrunners. Test driver Jean-Eric Vergne is the next most likely option ahead of Lotus’ Romain Grosjean, who has suffered his second frustrating season in a row with the Enstone squad. Daniel Ricciardo and Max Verstappen are also linked, but it would be very highly unlikely to see either of those two joining Sebastian Vettel at the Scuderia.
According to some reports, Bottas has already been signed, but nothing has been made official just yet.
I say: based on current form alone, it would be criminal if it wasn’t Sebastian Vettel and Nico Hülkenberg in those two cars next season.
Williams
Current drivers:
Felipe Massa (Has contract until 2016)
Valtteri Bottas
Linked:
Alex Lynn (DAMS – GP2)
Nico Hülkenberg (Force India)
Obviously, if Valtteri Bottas ends up at Ferrari, then there will be a vacant seat at Williams. Should Bottas not get the nod by the Scuderia, then it would seem very likely that he will stay at Williams. His contract situation seems quite messy, as he supposedly only has a contract until the end of this year, and he claims that he is a free agent at the end of the year. Yet, Ferrari has supposedly ‘bid’ for Bottas, making this situation confusing indeed. It has to be considered that Williams has a secret ‘option’ on Bottas’ contract which we do not know about or something along those lines. Current test driver Alex Lynn (who already has the 40 Superlicence points required) and former Williams driver Nico Hülkenberg are the two main names (although Felipe Nasr was in that hat until it was announced that he will remain with Sauber) in the ring for this spot should Bottas go.
I say: it still looks very likely that Ferrari will take Hülkenberg should they replace Kimi Räikkönen. Based on that, and by the fact that both drivers seem happy enough where they are, I believe that it will be Felipe Massa and Valtteri Bottas at Williams next season.
Red Bull
Current drivers:
Daniel Ricciardo (Has contract until at least 2016)
Daniil Kvyat (Unconfirmed contract length)
Linked:
Max Verstappen (Toro Rosso)
Carlos Sainz (Toro Rosso)
The Red Bull situation appears quite messy. Christian Horner let slip last season that Daniel Ricciardo is on a three-year deal, whilst young Daniil Kvyat (who has been given the hurry-up once this season) is on a contract with no known details. Ricciardo is linked with Ferrari, and Kvyat has stepped his game up. Obviously, the two drivers currently at Toro Rosso will be linked with the main team.
I say: Daniel Ricciardo and Daniil Kvyat. Without question.
Force India
Current drivers:
Sergio Perez (Has contract until at least 2016)
Nico Hülkenberg
Linked:
Pascal Wehrlein (Mercedes – DTM/test driver)
Esteban Ocon (ART – GP3)
Sergio Perez’s spot at Force India seems very much secure until the end of next season. Both he and the team seem happy enough. However Nico Hülkenberg has been linked with a number of teams for next season, not surprising given his recent Le Mans success and by the fact that he is out of contract come the end of the year. No immediate names have been linked with Force India, however Mercedes test driver Pascal Wehrlein has impressed the team during testing for them on multiple occasions. One barrier however is the new Superlicence points, in which Wehrlein does not have a sufficient amount of. Could he possibly slip through the net due to his impressive testing performances however?
I say: with Hülkenberg likely off to Ferrari, it could well be Sergio Perez and Pascal Wehrlein at Force India.
Lotus
Current drivers:
Romain Grosjean (Has contract until 2016)
Pastor Maldonado (Has contract until 2016)
Linked:
Jolyon Palmer (Lotus – test driver)
Despite both having contracts, Romain Grosjean is open to looking elsewhere, and Pastor Maldonado has been told that he seat is not necessarily secure. Test driver Jolyon Palmer has been pushing for a race seat too, and doing free practice will be showing himself to the other teams. By winning the GP2 series last season, Palmer has the points required for a seat already.
I say: I believe that this line up will remain unchanged. I can see Romain Grosjean and Pastor Maldonado here for another season.
Sauber
Current drivers:
Marcus Ericsson (Has contract until at least 2016)
Felipe Nasr (Has contract until at least 2016)
Linked:
N/A
Unlike last season, there appears to be very much a consistency amongst Sauber’s line-up as they announced prior to the Hungarian Grand Prix that both of their drivers will be retained for 2016.
I say: Marcus Ericsson and Felipe Nasr. Done deal. Cannot see the same saga which we saw at the start of the year.
Toro Rosso
Current drivers:
Max Verstappen
Carlos Sainz
Linked:
Pierre Gasly (DAMS – GP2)
With both rookies performing very well, it is no surprise to see that already Max Verstappen and Carlos Sainz have been linked with the main team, and even Ferrari in Verstappen’s case. The only Red Bull Junior driver who seems remotely close to being ready is Pierre Gasly, and he would be the most likely to step up should one of the four Red Bull drivers switch completely.
I say: it will be very unlikely to see any of the Red Bull or Toro Rosso drivers leave at the end of the season. It is also quite clear that whilst Sainz is pretty much the complete driver already, Verstappen needs a lot more time to develop. I see an unchanged line up of Max Verstappen and Carlos Sainz.
McLaren
Current drivers:
Fernando Alonso (Has contract until 2017)
Jenson Button (Has contract until 2016)
Linked:
Kevin Magnussen (McLaren – Test driver)
Stoffel Vandoorne (ART – GP2)
McLaren have a ridiculous conundrum. They have two very talented, very quick, young, skilled, brilliant drivers waiting on the sidelines, yet they have two very experienced, very quick, World Champions in their cars at the moment which are going nowhere fast. Both current drivers have contracts at the moment, but you never know when Fernando Alonso or Jenson Button might call it a day.
I say: my heart says Kevin Magnussen and Stoffel Vandoorne. My head says Fernando Alonso and Jenson Button.
Manor
Current drivers:
Will Stevens
Roberto Merhi
Linked:
Kevin Magnussen (McLaren – Test Driver)
Stoffel Vandoorne (ART – GP2)
Lance Stroll (Prema Powerteam – FIA F3 Euroseries)
Jordan King (Racing Engineering – GP2)
Fabio Leimer (Manor – Test driver)
It wouldn’t be too surprising to see two names in the Manor cars next season with considerable budgets alongside them. Whilst Will Stevens and Roberto Merhi have kept each other honest this season, they’ve struggled to do much in a car which is well over a year old. With GP2 and Formula Renault 3.5 series champions linked to these spots, from a sporting point of view it would make sense to stick those drivers in there.
I say: who knows? I will take a punt and say McLaren’s young drivers: Kevin Magnussen and Stoffel Vandoorne.
Haas
Current drivers:
N/A
Linked:
Nico Hülkenberg (Force India)
Esteban Gutierrez (Ferrari – Test driver)
Jean-Eric Vergne (Ferrari – Test driver)
Alexander Rossi (Racing Engineering – GP2)
Josef Newgarden (CFH Racing – IndyCar)
Conor Daly (Schmidt Peterson Motorsports – IndyCar)
The new team in Formula 1 from next season has made it clear that they would like two experienced names in their cars next season, whilst still looking at American drivers. With three young American guys excelling at the moment, they will obviously be linked. However, two Ferrari test drivers and a surprise name in Nico Hülkenberg also are linked with a spot at the new team.
I say: with three experienced drivers and three American drivers all linked to this team, I can see Haas taking one of each. I believe that it will likely be Jean-Eric Vergne and Alexander Rossi in those seats next season.
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