Do you know who had the lowest K/9 in a season in the PITCHF/X era (since 2002) while still maintaining an xFIP below average? That designation belongs to Cheng-Ming Wang in 2006, whose line is quite interesting: 34 games, 33 starts, 218 innings, 3.14 K/9, 2.15 BB/9, and a 62.8% ground ball rate. This resulted in a 3.63/3.91/4.19 ERA/FIP/xFIP line that is all still below average for 2006. It’s hard for me to believe that 2006 was nine years ago, but a lot has changed since then. Wang’s xFIP should be worse than average to me, and it probably would be now, even with half his games in Yankee Stadium. But run production has been decreasing for quite some time now, and a 4.19 xFIP toward the tail end of the steroid era shouldn’t seem so surprising to me, I guess. There’s a reason I bring this all up, and it has to do with the first of our streaming pitchers.
Streaming Pitchers: 7/3/2015
Charlie Morton RHP PIT (vs. CLE)
Chuck’s been pretty unlucky in his last couple starts, keeping his ownership rate down. Also keeping it down, I’m sure, is his inability to strike guys out with any consistency (his last start notwithstanding). For the season, he’s had a remarkably low 4.95 K/9. Yet his xFIP (3.58) is still below average. The control (2.03 BB/9) and the worm burners (61.5% GB) are what has made him so effective. The ERA is at 4.28, but it won’t stay there for long, and if he can keep his control and his grounders and maybe get a few more strikeouts along the way, he’s a super useful pitcher for streaming purposes. He’ll have another advantage on Friday, pitching at home in PNC Park. He gets to face an Indians squad that has struggled on the road (92 wRC+) and hasn’t had the best of luck against righties either (99 wRC+). Look for Ground Chuck to get back on track with a solid start here.
J.A. Happ LHP SEA (@ OAK)
If there’s one big rule in streaming, it’s probably to use the parks to your advantage. Many would say that if you just used low-owned pitchers throwing in parks like O.Co Coliseum, you’d be pretty well off. Well, Oakland’s dump of a home ballpark is a great place to get to pitch to help suppress home runs. J.A. Happ is probably looking forward to pitching there, then, especially against the A’s. They’ve been solid at home (107 wRC+) but have struggled against lefties (94 wRC+). So this matchup really comes down to trusting that his skills will come across well in that park. I think they will, and I think he’s got a great chance to have a solid start and maybe pick up a win.
