There is nothing like a pool draw, or the announcement of fixtures, to whet a sports fan’s appetite for the upcoming season. While we might have to wait a couple of months for the exact dates on which the games will be played, today’s Champions Cup draw in Neuchatel certainly had fans drooling at the prospect of some matchups. With the competition reduced to 20 teams, there is one fewer “gimme” pool – one which you would expect two qualifiers from due to their having an Italian team which the other three teams would (if they had any hopes of winning) look to beat handsomely both home and away. Indeed, even the pool in which Treviso, this season’s Italian representative, are involved looks to be no easy feat. We look at each pool in turn and try to predict how they will end up, as well as looking at some of the key matchups.
Pool 1 – Saracens, Ulster, Toulouse, Oyonnax
Three perennial contenders involved here, as well as one newcomer. It is hard to see how Oyonnax, operating on the Top14’s smallest budget, will be able to fare in both domestic and European competition, especially in a compacted World Cup year. They may, especially if their opening two games don’t go to plan, treat the Champions Cup as a place to blood young players against top competition. As a result this pool could well see two qualifiers as Saracens, Ulster and Toulouse will all look to gain maximum points against the relative minnows of the group.
Toulouse have won this competition a record 4 times, but this is the first year that they will attempt to do so without coach Guy Novés. The legendary coach moves on to (finally…) coach the Les Bleus after the World Cup, and so there is a huge degree of uncertainty regarding how they will fare next season. They failed to qualify from their tough group last season and I wouldn’t bet on them getting out of this one. Allianz Park and Ravenhill are tough places to go to, and Toulouse’s recruitment this season has been virtually non-existent.
Saracens will be looking to win at least 4 games in this pool and could well go six from six. They have been knocking on the door of glory in recent years, and their incredible academy is beginning to come to fruition with the likes of Maro Itoje already making significant strides. They will battle it out with Ulster to win the pool, but they are deserved top seeds and favourite to come out on top. That leaves Ulster, who will look to win in Toulouse and Oyonnax and take something in Allianz Park in the hope of being one of the top runners up.
Pool 2 – Clermont, Ospreys, Exeter, Bordeaux Begles
The rugby played in this pool will be fun to watch. Clermont, even more than Saracens, have been the best team never to win the competition. They have for so long been at the top of European rugby, but have never scaled to its lofty pinnacle. They would expect to get out of this group without much difficulty, but they are surrounded by three teams who make life difficult for their opposition and consistently punch above their weight. Clermont have bolstered their ranks with stars like David Strettle, Hosea Gear and Scott Spedding but have lost a lot of talent too. Regardless of what you think of their recruitment though; expect them to top the pool.
The battle between Ospreys and Exeter should be great to watch. Two teams who know better than most how to make limited resources stretch. Exeter play one of the best brands of rugby in the competition and this pool will be worth tuning into purely on that basis. They are steadily growing some great players in Jack Nowell, Henry Slade and Dave Ewers emanating from an impressive academy structure. For the first time since promotion to the Aviva Premiership they have looked past their largely home-grown squad to bring in British and Irish Lion Geoff Parling as well as team mate Julian Salvi from Leicester. Looking even further afield; they have also brought Italian star Michele Campagnaro from Treviso.
Ospreys on the other hand will have a solid backbone in their team centred around their half-backs Dan Biggar and Rhys Webb. Their backrow of Dan Baker, Justin Tipuric and Dan Lydiate is international quality and they have the excitement of Josh Matavesi in midfield and live wire Dan Evans at full back. They will make it difficult for the others, though have also traditionally under performed on Europe’s biggest stage. Qualifying from the group will be the goal for these two, but they are perhaps down the pecking order in terms of likely “best-runners-up”.
Like Oyonnax, Bordeaux’s interest in the competition will likely depend on their opening salvo of outings. If they can come away with two wins or a win and a losing bonus point, they may continue to field strong sides, but if they lose two, it may be seen as a time to rest their big guns as they endeavour to solidify themselves in the upper echelons of the Top14. Their recruitment has been exciting with Adam Ashley-Cooper and Sekope Kepu joining from the Waratahs as well as players like Loann Goujon and Luke Braid. There won’t be much expected of them, but they have the talent to cause some upsets.
Pool 3 – Glasgow, Northampton Saints, Racing 92 and Scarlets
Dan Carter’s introduction to European rugby will not be an easy one. This pool is stacked around the New Zealand superstar, with this year’s Pro12 Champions, last year’s Aviva Premiership champions and a Scarlets team well used to causing upsets in Europe included alongside Carter’s Racing. It is very difficult to pick a winner from this group, as any of the top 3 could easily come out on top, but you would tip Northampton, and their European pedigree to be favourites. Glasgow are great to watch and Scotstoun has been an absolute fortress for them. They managed to banish their Pro12 demons last year and they will be looking to get over the hump in Europe this year. With Taqele Naiyaravaro joining from the Waratahs joining a back 3 already including Tommy Seymour and Stuart Hogg, their will be tries a plenty.
Saints and Racing prefer a more forward-orientated approach, looking to bully their opponents into submission, but they have firepower outside too. Racing have bulked up their pack this season with Yannick Nyanga, Chris Masoe, Martin Castrogiovanni and Ben Tameifuna all adding significant weight to an already imposing unit. In fact this pool could become a real test of brawn over brain.
Scarlets lose Rhys Priestland to Bath this offseason, and they have not got a very obvious replacement. James Davies will get to prove himself against the likes of Nyanga, Masoe, Tom Wood and Callum Clark. It is hard to see them having enough to progress, but they have enough to beat teams in Parc Y Scarlets and have a say in who qualifies from this pool.
Pool 4 – Stade Francais, Munster, Leicester Tigers, Treviso
Munster’s first Heineken Cup campaign without Paul O’Connell is, in comparison to last year, a much more manageable one. If, before the draw, you had offered Munster this one, they would have gleefully accepted. Stade Francais, although winning the Top14, have the least European experience of the big three in this group and that will make travelling to Thomond Park and Welford Road more difficult than it already is. Munster have recruited Francis Saili for next season who is sure to add a creative spark that is badly needed in their midfield.
Leicester have seen their squad decimated losing 15 players to transfers or retirement. The spine of their pack has changed massively and there are question marks about Manu Tuilagi’s future. This has the potential to be a tough season for Leicester, although they have shown an ability to navigate adversity in the past. The big three will need to take a minimum of nine points of Treviso, as well as winning at least one other time on the road in order to top this pool. I would expect Munster, with their European savvy, to have too much for the others, but Stade could well be among the best runners up if they can win at Welford Road.
Pool 5 – Bath, Toulon, Leinster and Wasps
Holy humdinger Batman. Leinster’s final 3 fixtures in last seasons Champions Cup were away to Wasps, home against Bath and away to Toulon. There is a definite familiarity about this pool as Toulon dumped Wasps out at the quarter final stage last year too. 7 of the last 9 European Cup winners come from this pool with Wasps winning in 2007, Leinster in 2009, 2011 and 2012 and Toulon claiming the last 3 trophies (sorry Bath). This is about as tough a pool as you could have imagined, and the fireworks will be flying in every minute played between these four sides.
Bath and Wasps play some fantastic rugby, with some exciting young backs. Their ranks will be bolstered by players such as Niko Matawalu and Rhys Priestland moving to Bath and Frank Halai and Jimmy Gopperth at Wasps. The club now in Coventry have also added Australian warrior George Smith to an all action back row of Nathan Hughes and Ashley Johnson. While the Ricoh and the Rec are not the most intimidating places to visit, there is sufficient quality there to cause problems for anyone who arrives.
Toulon’s squad has, pretty terrifyingly, improved this year from the one which brought them a third trophy in succession last May. Paul O’Connell, Duane Vermeulen and Samu Manoa are among the stars adding to their already bruising pack. Behind them Ma’a Nonu, James O’Connor and possibly Quade Cooper will bolster their star studded backline. It truly is a squad of endless global superstars and Bernard Laporte has shown an incredible ability to get them to gel.
Leinster are somewhat an unknown quantity, with coach Matt O’Connor having been dismissed from his post following a dreadful domestic season in which Leinster finished 5th and played some terrible rugby. That same Leinster team took Toulon to the brink in Marseilles however, and with the return of Jonathan Sexton and Isa Nacewa, who knows how far they could go. They would do well to finalise their coaching ticket sooner rather than later to give themselves the best chance of leading an assault on this brutal pool. It is hard to see more than one qualifier from this pool, as all sides will likely take points off each other. Nigh on impossible to pick a winner, but Toulon, being the defending champions, have to be the favourites. The World Cup may be the high point of this year’s rugby calendar, but the European Champions Cup looks set to be a perfect pick-me-up following the crowning of World Champion on October 31st.
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