In the wake of a frustrating 32-33 start for the San Diego Padres, the team fired their manager, Bud Black, a one-time manager of the year award recipient. Following the most distinguishable offseason in franchise history, the Padres seemed in line to compete for the NL West title this offseason. Additions such as Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers, James Shields, and Craig Kimbrel made baseball a relevant subject in San Diego for the first time in nearly a decade.
But halfway through June, the Padres haven’t been performing to expectations. At least not in the eyes of dynamic general manager, A.J. Preller. As a result of Preller’s disappointment, Black took the majority of the blame and became the first of what could be many Padres’ casualties this season.
So what exactly has gone wrong for the Padres this season? A lot.
Let’s start with the team numbers. The Padres’ offense has performed substantially below expectations. Some of this may be due to an assortment of injuries, but even when healthy, the bats haven’t made an impact. The Padres rank 10th in the NL in OPS+, 13th in OBP, 14th in Slugging %, and strikeout at the second highest rate behind only the Cubs. Their defense ranks 14th in the NL in both Rtot (Total Zone Fielding above average) and Rdrs (Defensive runs saved above average). And the pitching staff has the worst ERA+ in the NL. Nothing’s going right for this team.
All of that is bad, but to make matters worse, those team stats aren’t the result of a poor supporting cast. It’s the result of the team’s star players playing some of the worst baseball of their careers.
Matt Kemp, he of the $21 million salary, has a WAR of -0.3 thus far this season. Craig Kimbrel, the man with a career ERA of 1.61, has a 3.60 ERA to date. Wil Myers has already missed 27 games, and Ian Kennedy, Andrew Cashner, and Tyson Ross all have ERA’s above 4.00.
If there has been any bright spots on this Padres’ team it’s been Justin Upton (13 home runs and 13 steals). While Derek Norris and James Shields have also had productive seasons, Upton has been the MVP of the Padres so far.
With all that in mind, what can the Padres do to fix this situation? Unfortunately they may not be able to this season. The firing of Black signals a shift of focus from A.J. Preller. Regardless of whom he hires, does he really expect a midseason hire to lead this team to the NL West title if a former manager of the year couldn’t? Truthfully, the Padres have ample time to right the ship, but this roster just doesn’t seem functional enough to compete with the Dodgers or Giants.
Regardless of how the Padres’ season plays out between now and the July 31st deadline, I wouldn’t expect Preller, for as ambitious a GM as he is, to make any enormous changes. He may look to move a starter such as Andrew Cashner or Ian Kennedy, both of whom are in the final year of their contracts, assuming the right deal presents itself.
In the end though, I think the Padres stick it out. So much was made of this team’s potential this offseason, and selling out now would be a disservice to Padres fans of Jeffrey Loria proportions. The team just has to hope that nothing is wrong after all.
