Amidst the melee of the NBA Finals news of a trade involving the Milwaukee Bucks and the Detroit Pistons broke on Thursday.
It’ll see Ersan Ilyasova head to the Motor City in exchange for the non-guaranteed contracts of Caron Butler and Shawne Williams.
While on the surface it seems like nothing more than a salary dump that ensures Milwaukee has the cap space it needs to attempt to re-sign Khris Middleton and continue adding to its arsenal of young stars going forward, its implications are far greater than that, especially when considered in relation to the future of one Greg Monroe.
Following the move, Stan Van Gundy, Head Coach and President of Basketball Operations for the Detroit Pistons, said “Ersan Ilyasova is a player we have coveted since we got to Detroit. Not only is he a proficient three-point shooter that can stretch the floor, he is a high-energy, hard-playing guy who fits extremely well with how we want to play. We are excited about what he can add to our team.”
All of which suggests that Monroe, who’s not hit a single three in his NBA career, is no longer a part of Detroit’s long-term plans.
Given his status as an unrestricted free-agent this summer, that’ll come as no great surprise. Especially when you consider just how little improvement he’s shown over the course of five campaigns in Pistons’ blue.
Things got off to a good start for him, as he averaged 15.9 PPG and 10.2 RPG in 31.0 MPG during his rookie campaign, but under Van Gundy his minutes fell off and he made just 48 starts this year, averaging 9.4 PPG and 7.5 RPG in 27.8 MPG. His field goal percentage did improve, up to a career high .551, but that was due largely to the fact that he only averaged 6.9 field goal attempts per game, down from 13.1 in 2012-13.
The most likely reason for his becoming surplus to requirements is Andre Drummond, who, at 6’10” and 270lbs, is a more natural centre, a guy who can bang down low and who, through the first three years of his career, is averaging a double double (12.1 PPG and 11.8 RPG).
In truth, he’s the player likely to benefit most from this trade, as, without Monroe clogging up the paint, he should get better looks rolling to the hoop and more touches in the low post. Also, assuming Ilyasova’s able to force his way into Detroit’s starting five, floor spacing should improve massively, something that might enable the Pistons to adopt more of an inside-out style of play.
Their desire to do that is no great surprise, as Van Gundy did something very similar with Dwight Howard in Orlando. Rather than playing him alongside a big, powerful forward, in the same mould as Monroe, Van Gundy preferred to pair Howard with stretch fours capable of pulling the opposing PF out to the three point line, thus creating more room for Howard to operate down low. Think Rashard Lewis and Ryan Anderson, two players not unlike Ilyasova, who played some of the best ball of their careers under Van Gundy, by providing Howard with an extra shooting option on the perimeter whenever he got doubled inside.
Like Howard though, at present Drummond’s offense leaves a lot to be desired and if he is to be the guy Detroit attempts to build around moving forward he’s going to need to exhibit real signs of improvement in the coming year.
A career usage rate of just 18.9% suggests Detroit doesn’t quite trust him to carry the team just yet, but his potential is there for all to see, especially when you consider his field goal percentage, .608 this year and a whopping .623 in 2013-14. Like Dwight Howard he’s a beast on the boards but he also struggles at the free throw line, shooting a woeful .397 over the course of his short career.
Although his numbers were more impressive overall, it’s also worth noting that Howard broke out in year four of his career, averaging a career-high 20.7 PPG along with 14.2 RPG for the Magic.
Whilst Van Gundy would be naive to expect anywhere near the same sort of jump from Drummond, he will be hoping for an offensive upturn that builds upon that he saw when playing him alongside Anthony Tolliver last year. Like Ilyasova, Tolliver has the ability to stretch the floor, however he only shoots the three-ball at a rate of .356. Ilyasova, on the other hand, has made .370 of his career three pointers, peaking at .455 in 2011-12.
Furthermore, as Synergy Sports Tech pointed out on Twitter shortly after the deal was confirmed, Ilyasova made 40% of his spot up threes and 52% of his transition threes in 2014-15, all of which, coupled with the fact that the Pistons can buy out the final year of his deal for just $400,000 if things don’t work out, suggests that this could turn out to be a shrewd move on Detroit’s part.
As for Monroe, he’s all but been given the green light to go out and see what kind of deal he can land, an opportunity he’s presumably been working towards ever since opting to take the qualifying offer he received as a restricted free agent last summer.
With him out of the picture the Pistons should be able to adopt a more modern style of play, whilst ensuring they have enough cap space to be able to extend Reggie Jackson’s tenure when he becomes a restricted free agent this summer.
Given how little it cost him, this was good bit of business on Van Gundy’s part, something Pistons fans will be hoping to see more of in the near future.
