UFC 188 emanates live on pay-per-view on Saturday night from the Arena Ciudad de Mexico in Mexico City, Mexico. Last Word on Sports MMA crew – Matt Creed, Trent Dozier, Daniel Marino, Jon Patrick, Stephen Rivers, Jon Shipman and Victor Vargas – bring you their picks and analysis for the main card fights.
UFC Heavyweight Championship
Cain Velasquez (c) vs Fabricio Werdum (ic)
Picking Velasquez: Dozier, Marino, Patrick, Rivers, Shipman
Picking Werdum: Creed, Vargas
Shipman: “This isn’t the first time we’ll see two heavyweight champions clash to decide who really is the baddest man on the planet. I don’t want to go into too much history, because this comes down to two things to me: the nearly two-year layoff Cain Velasquez has had, and the pressuring type of fight he brings to the cage. These for me are the big question marks in this fight. Most fighters take time to adjust after a big lay off. Some, like Dominick Cruz, come back like they have never been away; others struggle to ever find their form again. I don’t think this will be a problem for Velasquez. His gym battles with the like of Daniel Cormier are becoming legendary, and should stand him in good stead for this fight. A lot of people talk about his wrestling and cardio as being his biggest weapons, and that’s very true, but it’s the pressure he brings that is different to all heavyweights. Now, that’s not the same as having great cardio; there are a lot of fighters with excellent cardio who are always moving and always cutting angles, giving you something to think about for five solid rounds. What Velasquez does is put his hands on you, and keeps them there constantly manipulating and striking, like a Randy Couture on speed. Trying to get off any sort of offense while you constantly have to defend is the key to Velasquez’s game. I don’t believe any heavyweight in the world right now can cope with that. Yes, Fabricio Werdum can catch a knockout or a sneaky submission, but only if Velasquez gives him that opportunity. I feel this might be more one sided than everyone thinks. I think Velasquez is coming to prove a point in his cultural home nation. I’m putting my neck on the line and saying Velasquez gets this done inside of 3 rounds.”
Gilbert Melendez vs Eddie Alvarez
Picking Melendez: Creed, Dozier, Marino, Rivers, Vargas
Picking Alvarez: Patrick, Shipman
Vargas: “This match-up is a barrel of napalm that’s about to make impact. Gilbert Melendez versus Eddie Alvarez is a fight that has been rumored and dreamed about since both men held titles in their previous promotions of the now defunct Strikeforce and Bellator, respectively, circa 2010. These two guys do not like each other and are beyond confident in their abilities to beat each other. With both men coming off losses in their last efforts, it adds a spark of motivation to this contest that will assure maximum levels of brutality and ugliness. Melendez is the more revered fighter resume-wise, but Alvarez is the more athletic fighter. It is virtually impossible for this fight to be anything but thrilling and competitive. Both of these men like putting on entertaining fights and feed off crowds. Melendez will undoubtedly be looking to show out for the fans, given his Mexican heritage, and little x-factors will be the determining factors for the victor. On paper, this seems Melendez’ fight to lose, but Melendez is seldom one to play it safe and Alvarez will always look for a war. It will be close, violent, and possibly controversial, with Melendez getting his hand raised by a close, possibly controversial split decision.”
Kelvin Gastelum vs Nate Marquardt
Picking Gastelum: Creed, Dozier, Marino, Patrick, Rivers, Shipman, Vargas
Picking Marquardt: none
Rivers: “Nate Marquardt is a tough guy to back at the moment and I wouldn’t choose to in this fight either. I think Kelvin Gastelum has enough skill on the feet, and clearly enough in his wrestling, to outwork and wear Marquardt down. I think they’ve done a clever job of matching Gastelum here, because while I realize he failed to make weight twice and put the UFC in an awkward position, I just don’t see him as a middleweight. Could you imagine him in there against anyone in the top five of this division? In Marquardt, they’ve got a guy who has also fought at welterweight in recent years so this isn’t some huge overwhelming middleweight, plus, when Gastelum did fight a bigger guy in Uriah Hall, he handled himself just fine.”
Yair Rodriguez vs Charles Rosa
Picking Rodriguez: none
Picking Rosa: Creed, Dozier, Marino, Patrick, Rivers, Shipman, Vargas
Marino: “These guys are both pretty fresh when it comes to UFC competition, but Charles Rosa is a lot more experienced when it comes to professional matches. Yair Rodriguez is coming off an impressive showing on The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America, where he won his first two fights by submission before defeating Leonardo Morales by unanimous decision in the finals. However, the fact remains that Rodriguez carries only a 4-1 record in professional competition. Rosa, while not exactly a veteran, has more than double the fights Rodriguez has with a 10-1 record coming in. The scariest part of that? Rosa has only been to one decision in his career, and that was his one loss to perennial top ten fighter Dennis Siver. That’s right, all ten of Rosa’s wins have been by stoppage, including his second bid for a UFC win when he defeated Sean Soriano by D’arce choke in the dying seconds of the third round. However, most of his finishes have come in the very first round. In the end, I don’t think Rodriguez has enough experience to deal with a trained killer like Rosa, who has proven that he can submit an opponent the moment he is given a chance. Give me Rosa by first round submission.”
Tecia Torres vs Angela Hill
Picking Torres: Creed, Dozier, Marino, Patrick, Shipman, Vargas
Picking Hill: Rivers
Dozier: “Tecia Torres vs Angela Hill should be a fun opener for the PPV. Both strawweights were on TUF 20, with Torres, the 3-seed in the competition, going 1-2 on the show, and Hill, the 16-seed, going 0-1. Both women were victorious on the TUF Finale, both claiming unanimous decision wins. In fact, in their combined seven professional fights, they’re 7-0 with six of those seven wins coming by unanimous decision. Both are strikers, but at this lighter weight class, their power just isn’t there. I expect Torres, who is more experienced and trains with the stronger camp, to outwork Hill on the feet for fifteen minutes and pick up yet another unanimous decision win.”
Undercard Bout to Watch:
Dozier – Augusto Montano vs Cathal Pendred
Marino – Henry Cejudo vs Chico Camus
Patrick – Henry Cejudo vs Chico Camus
Shipman – Augusto Montano vs Cathal Pendred
Rivers – Henry Cejudo vs Chico Camus
Vargas – Francisco Trevino vs Johnny Case
