UFC Fight Night 68 emanates live on Fox Sports 1 on Saturday night from the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana. Last Word on Sports MMA crew – Trent Dozier, Michael Hutchinson, Daniel Marino, Stephen Rivers, Stephanie Schneider, Jon Shipman and Victor Vargas – bring you their picks and analysis for the main card fights.
Tim Boetsch vs Dan Henderson
Picking Boetsch: Hutchinson, Marino, Rivers, Vargas
Picking Henderson: Dozier, Schneider, Shipman
Rivers: “I’m loathed to simplify this too much by saying that Dan Henderson is shot at this point. Lyoto Machida, Rashad Evans, Vitor Belfort, Daniel Cormier; honestly, I’m not sure I’d back Henderson to win those fights five years ago with TRT. Gegard Mousasi? Probably. None of them are bad losses though, and Tim Boetsch has never been on the level of any of the guys who have beaten Henderson in the best part of the past ten years. Thing is, at this point, I’m not sure he has to be. He’s big enough and strong enough to grind out the first two or three rounds and wear Henderson down, and he has the power to do some damage along the way.”
Ben Rothwell vs Matt Mitrione
Picking Rothwell: Hutchinson, Schneider
Picking Mitrione: Dozier, Marino, Rivers, Shipman, Vargas
Schneider: “This is a tricky one to pick. Rothwell has a purple belt in jiu-jitsu and has won his last two fight via knockout. On the other side, Mitrione has a black belt in karate and has won his last three fights via knockout. This just shows that both men have improved their striking and accuracy tremendously. They both want to knock each other out. Rothwell has spent more time in the cage, which could be an advantage since Mitrione hasn’t been past the first round in a long time. I’m going with Rothwell.”
Dustin Poirier vs Yancy Medeiros
Picking Poirier: Dozier, Hutchinson, Marino, Rivers, Schneider, Vargas
Picking Medeiros: Shipman
Shipman: “Having had a shaky start to his UFC career, including testing positive for marijuana, Yancy Medeiros is finding his finishing form, finishing his last two opponents to end 2014 on a high note. Dustin Poirier is also finding his form. Since his beating at the hands of Conor McGregor, Poirier moved up to lightweight where he beat a tough Carlos Ferreira. Medeiros needs this fight to hit the ground, where he can use his wrestling and try to apply one of his crushing chokes. If he doesn’t, Poirier will be able to use his varied striking and improved hands to pick Medeiros apart. However, I think size plays a part in this and Medeiros will manage to use his to grind out a victory.”
Thiago Tavares vs Brian Ortega
Picking Tavares: Hutchinson, Rivers, Schneider, Shipman, Vargas
Picking Ortega: Dozier, Marino
Marino: “This is a classic battle between a veteran and an up-and-comer that promises to tell us if Brian Ortega belongs in the big leagues. The former RFA champion’s career is a short one, containing only nine fights (with a record of 8-0 and one no contest). Coming off an impressive first round submission win in his UFC debut, which was overturned to a no contest after he tested positive for drostanolone, Ortega will struggle to find a way to submit veteran Thiago Tavares, whose grappling skills are highly hailed and who has never been submitted in his 24 fight career. In the end, I see the younger fighter coming out on top by decision in a highly competitive grappling fest, though I don’t know enough about Ortega to pick him over Tavares if the fight remains on the feet.”
Joe Soto vs Anthony Birchak
Picking Soto: Dozier, Hutchinson, Marino, Schneider, Rivers, Vargas
Picking Birchak: Shipman
Dozier: “After falling short in a last-second title shot against UFC Bantamweight Champion TJ Dillashaw last August in his UFC debut, Joe Soto gets his second chance to pick up his first win inside the octagon. His opponent, Anthony Birchak, was Soto’s originally scheduled foe last August before all the last minute changes took place. Birchak ended up making his debut in December, losing by submission in one round to Ian Entwistle. Now both men get an opportunity to right their wrongs with their originally scheduled fight. Birchak is a strong wrestler with good submission skills, but Soto seems stronger in all areas, especially on the feet. I think Soto cruises to a decision here, but a finish by the former Bellator champion wouldn’t surprise me.”
Francisco Rivera vs Alex Caceres
Picking Rivera: Marino, Rivers, Schneider, Vargas
Picking Caceres: Dozier, Hutchinson, Shipman
Vargas: “This is a fight I’m quite excited to see, with potential bonuses written all over it. Francisco Rivera is coming off a loss to perennial contender Urijah Faber, while Alex Caceres is coming off losses to Masanori Kanehara and Faber as well. These men will undoubtedly be coming out determined to get back on the winning track, and both have the type of fighting style to make this a barnburner. Rivera’s submission loss to Faber is very misleading, as the choke was a direct result of a really bad eye poke by Faber, albeit an unintentional one. Prior to the eye poke, I felt as if Rivera won every minute of the first round against Faber. In addition to that performance, Rivera has heavy hands that you can never sleep on.”
Undercard Bout to Watch:
Dozier – Shawn Jordan vs Derrick Lewis
Hutchinson – Joe Proctor vs Justin Edwards
Marino – Joe Proctor vs Justin Edwards
Rivers – Brian Ebersole vs Omari Akhmedov
Schneider – Brian Ebersole vs Omari Akhmedov
Shipman – Shawn Jordan vs Derrick Lewis
Vargas – Shawn Jordan vs Derrick Lewis
