With his win on Monday, Roger Federer progressed to the quarterfinals of Roland Garros for the eleventh time and his 44th overall in Grand Slams. On the other hand, Stanislas Wawrinka reached the quarterfinals at Roland Garros for only the second time in his career when he defeated Gilles Simon in straight sets on Sunday. As I will show, this quarterfinal will provide the finalist from the bottom half of the draw: both are Grand Slam champions who know exactly what they have to do to make it through to the final of one of the biggest tournaments of our sport.
Their match on Tuesday provides a tantalising matchup: good friends off-court, compatriots on-court, but fellow competitors who will equally want to progress to the semifinals. These two will let nothing get in the way of a semifinal berth on the terre battue.
Federer is playing the commanding tennis which has seen him rise from the depths of despair he faced in 2013 to being the second-ranked player in the world. Aggressive baseline tennis, supplemented by forays into the net, has seen him play with a confidence which befits him. Roland Garros has been an unhappy hunting ground (by his standards) the last few years, with a fourth round loss last year and a quarterfinal appearance the year before. His new offensive game has given him new life on the dirt; he has to rely less on physicality as he does his ability to conjure winners from out of thin air. His best result in the run up to Roland Garros was a final appearance in Rome in which he lost to the commanding #1, Novak Djokovic.
Wawrinka, with his heavy groundstrokes and huge power game, should excel on clay. However, his form coming into Roland Garros has been nothing special; his best result was losing to Federer in the semis of Rom–and a recent loss on home turf in Geneva to the unheralded Federico Delbonis provide a key as to the inconsistent nature of his form.
His has summarily blasted his way through the draw at Roland Garros this year. His most recent win in the fourth round over Gilles Simon was his most impressive. Simon is a defensive counterpuncher; he gives nothing away for free and with the French crowd behind him would have been pumped for this match. For Wawrinka to win 6-1 6-4 6-2 is a testament to how well Wawrinka is playing and an insight as to why this quarterfinal will determine the finalist from the bottom half of the draw.
Federer and Wawrinka will push each other to the limit. Wawrinka has the firepower to trouble Federer, whilst Federer has the knowledge that when the push comes to the shove, he has the upper hand. In their match at the World Tour Finals last, Federer faced down match points to beat Wawrinka and, coupled with his 16-2 lead in their head to head, is surely the favourite.
However, why does this mean that the winner from this match will be the finalist from the bottom half?
The first reason is the fact that this match will require each player to play his best. If either does not, they will not progress to the semis. Both players are too good not to have to beat the other, neither will mentally check out as Monfils did against Federer. When they reach this level, it will put them in good stead for the next round. Federer knowing that he just beat Wawrinka or Wawrinka coming off a victory over Federer will approach Kei Nishikori or Jo Wilfred-Tsonga with the knowledge that he had to play his best tennis and is capable in this tournament of producing his best. Federer and Wawrinka are very much confidence players and when a confidence player is confident, other players should be afraid.
Furthermore, neither Nishikori nor Tsonga have won a slam. Both have made it to finals, although Tsonga’s final was way back in 2008 and Nishikori’s final was so recent as to put pressure on him to perform. Neither are a Grand Slam champion and as such, do not have the inner belief that winning a slam bestows on a player.
That is not to say that it would be a surprise for either Nishikori or Tsonga to progress to the final, both are extremely good players who have a chance with the absence of Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray from their half. However, the Federer and Wawrinka match is the key to the bottom half of the draw: if it is a long, drawn out affair it could detrimentally affect the Swiss players ability to contend in the following semifinal. If it provides the kind of tennis fans are expecting, this all-Swiss quarterfinal will produce the finalist from the bottom half.
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