Our day 8 panel is all freelance journalists, as John Lupo, Dylan Zumar, and Tadeas Gavenda make their picks for big round of 16 matches including Federer-Monfils.
Panelists Predictions Roland Garros 2015 Day 8
(2)Roger Federer vs. (13)Gael Monfils
Tadeas:
A blockbuster. Federer leads their H2H 8:4, but Monfils won their last two meetings on clay, last time in Monte Carlo. Monfils is definitely able to cause problems to Federer, especially with french crowd behind his back. Federer recently reached the final in Rome and he seems to play with confidence in Paris, having no problems at all yet, while Monfils played already two 5-setters here. This leads me to the prediction that despite the expectations, Federer will lose one set at worst and prevail relatively easily. Federer in 4 sets
John:
Easily the most anticipated and exciting 4th Round affair, the 13th seeded Frenchman staged an epic rally against 23rd seed Pablo Cuevas, coming from 2 sets to 1 and 4-1 double break down in the 4th set to win in 5. He’ll need to clean that up against Federer, who, despite facing overwhelmed competition in his first 3 matches, has looked sharp in reaching the 2nd week here. After squandering a 2 set lead in last year’s US Open, Monfils swept Federer aside in the Davis Cup final, losing only 8 games and prevailed in a close 6-4 7-6 decision in Monte Carlo this year. You never what Gael will bring to the court with him, but I think he rises to the occasion on his home turf. Monfils in 5 sets
Dylan:
Since the draw came out, this has been the most anticipated fourth round match-up. But, if my instinct is correct, this match will fail to live up to its expectations. One must note that Monfils has defeated Federer in their last two clay meetings, but he has not played at a high enough level this tournament to make it three-in-a-row. The Frenchman has dropped 5 sets in just 3 matches so far, and having played two 5-set matches in a row will not help his cause. Federer has had a much easier time of reaching the fourth round; he is also motivated to take advantage of a half devoid of Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray. It would take a lot of energy out of Monfils to win this match, and I’m just not sure he has enough in the tank to do so. Federer in 4 sets
(4)Tomas Berdych vs. (14)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Tadeas:
Berdych is one of the most consistent players recently, which elevated him up to 4th place in the rankings. He is playing solid tennis all this season long. He reached Monte Carlo final, where he tested dominant Djokovic and lost to inspired Nadal in Madrid semifinal, which are good indicators of his clay form. Moreover, he defeated Tsonga this year in Madrid and leads their H2H 6:2. He lost a set to Stepanek and Paire, but both times in relatively close Tiebreaks. Tsonga seems to slowly find his performance from previous years, as he decisively won his first three matches, but one cannot judge too much from these matches, as only Andujar can be considered as a good opponent on clay. Hence I expect Berdych’s victory, because of his consistency against everyone not named Djokovic, Federer or Nadal. The french crowd will make the match only slightly longer. Berdych in 4 sets
John:
A most intriguing Round of 16 encounter sees two former Roland Garros semifinalists square off for a spot in the quarterfinals. Tsonga has not lost a set in cruising to the 4th Round while Berdych has dropped the 2nd set in each of his last 2 matches, a pattern he most certainly will want to avoid in this one. The Czech has a lifetime 6-2 head to head record against the Frenchman, including a 7-5 6-2 victory in Madrid. Despite those statistics, I like Jo’s form better so far and expect him to reach the last 8. Tsonga in 4 sets
Dylan:
This has potential to be a very intriguing match between two very aggressive players, but Berdych has the clear edge here. The Czech leads the head-to-head 6-2 with a comprehensive, straight-sets win in Madrid earlier this year included. Tsonga has clearly struggled since returning from a forearm injury this year; meanwhile, Berdych has been in superb form in 2015. Admittedly, Berdych has been a little shaky in Roland Garros thus far — losing sets to Stepanek and Paire – and Tsonga has yet to drop a set. The crowd is sure to get behind Tsonga (and, perhaps, irritate Berdych), but it will not be enough to overcome the Czech. Berdych in 4 sets
(8)Stan Wawrinka vs. (12)Gilles Simon
Tadeas:
Very tricky match to predict. Their H2H is even and their only clay match was a close 5-setter. Simon played very exhausting match with Mahut, but I don’t think it will affect his performance, as he proved many times his stamina and ability to play back-to back grueling matches. Wawrinka, who reached quarterfinals at Roland Garros 2013, is showing his typical fluctuations of his form, but results from Rome, where he defeated Nadal, may indicate the improvement. Then, Wawrinka is especially prone to unexpected defeats in the early rounds, which didn’t happen this time. Considering these issues and given that Simon needed 5 sets to defeat grass-court specialist Mahut, I have no courage to go against Wawrinka. Wawrinka in 4 sets
John:
Stan played his most impressive match of the tournament in dropping just 9 games to American Steve Johnson and seems to be rounding into form just in time for a 2nd week charge. Simon had to escape his last match against countryman Nicolas Mahut, rallying from 2 sets to 1 down to win in 5. Expect a long, grinding affair with tons of extended rallies. Their head to head is 3-2 in favor of the Swiss, with their most recent meeting in Shanghai last year, Stan prevailing 6-4 in the 3rd. Simon will keep this close and extend the 8th seed to the max, but I like the 2014 Australian Open champion to prevail in a tight one. Wawrinka in 5 sets
Dylan:
Coming into Roland Garros, there were question marks over Simon’s health with even Simon citing that his back injury prevented him from being able to serve or return. However, Simon has quelled any thoughts that Simon’s injury was severe by reaching the fourth round. The head-to-head between Wawrinka and Simon at the tour level is tied at two apiece, including a 5-set Wawrinka victory at Roland Garros in 2012. Simon’s game matches up fairly well with Stan, as he’s able to exacerbate Wawrinka’s hit-or-miss game by making a lot of balls. Yet, Simon’s wins have been fairly unimpressive to reach the fourth round with a 5-set victory over his compatriot Mahut in the third round. Form should be a significant factor in the outcome of this match, and Wawrinka has the match on his racquet. Wawrinka in 4 sets
(5)Kei Nishikori vs. Teymuraz Gabashvili
Tadeas:
Teymuraz Gabashvili is one of the surprises of current Roland Garros. He defeated struggling 11th-seeded Feliciano Lopez, clay court specialist Juan Monaco and Lukas Rosol en route to 4th round without dropping a set, which is quite impressive for 74th-ranked player. Kei Nishikori, 5th seeded, performed well in first two rounds, especially by defeating Geneva champion, Thomaz Bellucci, convincingly in 3 sets. The withdrawal of Benjamin Becker means that Nishikori will be well-rested and fresh. The other consequence of walkover may be the lack of match practice, but it would be more worrying in the case of facing the top player, which isn’t this case. Nishikori leads their H2H 3:1, and decisively won their only match on clay. I am going with reigning Barcelona champion in 3 sets. Nishikori in 3 sets
John:
The Japanese #1 hasn’t played since Wednesday after scheduled 3rd round opponent Benjamin Becker withdrew prior to their match with a shoulder injury. Nishikori looked shaky in closing out Brazilian Thomaz Bellucci and will need to raise his level of play against the surprising Russian, who has not dropped a set in this fortnight. Gabashvili will look to dictate with his powerful serve and groundstrokes as often as he can. These two most recently met in Barcelona with Nishikori coming out on top 6-3 6-4 and although I think it’ll be anything but routine like that previous encounter, I still expect Kei to advance. Nishikori in 4 sets
Dylan:
En route to his second Roland Garros fourth round, Teymuraz Gabashvili has yet to drop a set and has taken out some notable scalps with wins over Lopez, Monaco, and Rosol. Gabashvili’s game is prone to fluctuation, but in Roland Garros this year he seems to be playing his best tennis. Nishikori has been similarly clinical in his path to the fourth round – benefiting from a walkover in round three. Despite the Russian’s sublime tennis thus far, Nishikori should make too many balls for Gabashvili to be able to consistently win baseline rallies. Gabashvili will likely be the more aggressive of the two, but Nishikori’s consistency will give him fits. Nishikori in 3 sets
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