This is a kid – yes, kid – who, at the young age of 22, should be walking down the procession isle of his college graduation right about now. Instead, Bryce Harper has already been named Rookie of the Year in 2012 and has been selected to two All-Star games. Since Sports Illustrated proclaimed Harper, then just 16, as “Baseball’s Chosen One”, he has had to live up to the hype and expectation that comes with being the LeBron James of Major League Baseball. So far, Harper has done a fine job of representing the game and himself. The scary part is, the best is yet to come.
Harper plays every game like it’s his last, diving head first into bases, hustling for the extra base hit, crashing and diving into walls on defense, and running out every ground ball the way Derek Jeter did during his illustrious career. I liken Harper to a modern day Pete Rose – Charlie Hustle 2.0, if you will. However, his signature version of that hustle has led to several injuries in his young career already, including knee injuries in 2013 after running into outfield walls and ligament damage in his thumb sliding head first into third base last year. Surgery that year cost him close to nine weeks of the season. Harper’s biggest obstacle in 2015 is not one particular pitcher or team, it’s himself.
If Harper can stay healthy for the entirety of the season, he will lead these Washington Nationals into the playoffs as one of the top contenders in all of baseball. For the past several seasons, scouts have touted the Nationals as the team to beat, but this could finally be their year if Harper continues his torrid pace at the plate. As long as he stays healthy and picks his spots carefully as to when to put his effort into super overdrive, the Nationals shouldn’t have any issues taking care of business in the National League East.
Harper currently leads all of baseball in OBP (.475), SLG (.750), OPS (1.225), runs (38), and walks (38), and is second in home runs (15) and RBI (39). His numbers are scary for a 22-year-old who only played in about 130 minor league games in his career. At the tender age of 19 he was called up by the big club after third baseman Ryan Zimmerman landed on the DL. Other notable stars to be called upon at such an early age include Mickey Mantle, Al Kaline, Harmon Killibrew, Ken Griffey Jr., and Mike Trout. Decent company to keep, to say the very least.
Just for fun, if one were to compare Harper’s stats to those past stars, one would see some striking similarities. Mickey Mantle’s first four seasons had him batting a combined .296 with an OPS of .896 and 84 home runs. Barry Bonds’ batted a combined .256 in his first four, with an OPS of .804 and 84 home runs as well. Ken Griffey Jr. batted a combined .301 with an OPS of .860 and 87 home runs. Harper’s first three seasons, plus the first 41 games of 2015, have him at an average of .278, an OPS of .854, and 70 home runs for his career. If Harper keeps up his pace this season, he will pass Mantle, Bonds, and Griffey’s home run total for their first four seasons. Bottom line: Harper is reaching super-stardom, and fast.
It’s easy to forget the Nationals start off 10-13 in April; in their last 19 games, they’ve gone 15-4, including a six-game winning streak that continued on Friday against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Nationals’ winning streak coincides with Harper’s last six games, in which he went 10-18 with four home runs, eight RBIs, and five walks. Harper’s hot bat has propelled this team into first place in the division, a game and a half up on the New York Mets.
So what has led to the season that Bryce Harper has compiled thus far? According to FanGraphs, Harper’s O-Swing %, the percentage of pitches a batter swings outside of the strike zone, is at a career-low 29.8%, down from 35.7% in 2014. This has resulted in an increase in walks this year. Harper’s contact percentage is also the highest its been since 2013, at 77.2%. When Harper swings, he is making contact over 77% of the time.
My gut feeling is that Bryce Harper will win the National League MVP this season, and will put up career numbers in the process. In fact, I will make that my official prediction for the award. Harper is on pace for well over 35 home runs and 105 RBIs, and if he can carry this Nationals team into the playoffs, you might as well wrap up the MVP Trophy for Harper tomorrow. So what did you do at 22?
Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images
