I hope we all recognize that coaching matters. It might not be the biggest factor in drafting a player or not drafting a player in your fantasy league but it should play a part. The changing of a system can take a player like Matt Forte who is a PPR format monster and make him merely a good player. The philosophy of the coach impacts the player’s stats, which impacts fantasy scores. Every point matters and if I can identify the players that will jump from 10 points per game to 13 points per game, that is huge for my chances to win week in and week out.
Looking at all the factors for a player will give you the safest chance of getting every pick right in your draft. Yes there is no sure thing in any facet of life including fantasy football. However, this will make your percentage of success higher which is better for you, your team and winning money.
Coaching Change Impacts on Fantasy Football
Play calling matters so pay attention and look at all the numbers you can before its draft time. When you see all the opinions and numbers out there make up your mind and go for him. You will not be right all the time (there is only one me man) but you did it your way. This is your chance to be the GM, so make it count. Or as Al Davis told us “Just win baby, just win”.
Here are some players I believe in that have some sort of coaching change on their team. No, do not draft these players in the first round. Just keep an eye on them and take them when you think they are best for you. Good Luck!
Players to Believe In
• Julio Jones ATL WR: When healthy he is a beast in any system but this isn’t any system. He is now in a Kyle Shanahan system which averages a 56% pass ratio for 99% of his playing calling career. They do not have a stud back on the roster nor will they. They will have an improved offensive line and defense. They also play in a division that doesn’t have a big time shut down corner. You could see him slipping to the third round but getting a guy that will compete with first round guys.
• Charles Sims TB RB: This is the only real threat at running back that the Bucs have and when Dirk Koetter was with the Jags he was a 50/50 guy (half the time run, half the time pass). He also had his running back involved in the pass game. Put Sims with a better O-line and a more dangerous QB (possibly) and a coach that is looking for anything that resembles a real running game. This player is primed for a breakout and you can get him cheap.
• Michael Crabtree/Amari Cooper OAK WRs: Bill Musgrave calls passing plays intended to highlight receivers 60% of the time. He calls passing plays 53% of the time when he is in charge of play calling. Add those numbers to the fact that they have an inconsistent defense and a division that will make them score points to win. They will air it up with Carr and these two playmakers will be the ones coming down with it. I like Latavius Murray but do not love him yet. Yea yea yea he is the man but till I see it I am not buying it.
• LeSean McCoy/Fred Jackson BUF RBs: Everyone knows Rex Ryan loves to play smash mouth football. He will try to run it down the other team’s throat. Well he brings with him Greg Roman who was with the 49ers. He called run plays 52% of the time, one of the highest run percentages in the NFL. I am tired of hearing the O-Line isn’t for running. Do you think they will not address it? Also a new philosophy will have this line playing different. Believe in Rex.
• Carlos Hyde SF RB: The moment Gore left for Indy I was on the “I love Hyde train”. Geep Chryst loves to pass the ball I know but he also loves to get the running backs involved in the pass game. One year in San Diego he called pass plays that focused on the RB almost 40% of the time. To think Hyde will get the bulk of carries and be that involved in the pass game is more than enough reason to want this guy on your fantasy team.
• Vernon Davis SF TE: Chryst gets his tight-ends involved roughly 20% of the time on pass plays. Add that number in with Davis’s athletic ability and match-up problem and you got a recipe for a solid year. The loss of Crabtree will make them be more conservative than last year and give Davis more opportunity. He will not go early so you can get a possible top 5 in the late rounds.
• Owen Daniels/Virgil Green DEN TE: Peyton loves his tight-ends. Gary Kubiak loves his tight-ends. Put them together and that’s a lot of love for that position. Owen Daniels knows the system and is now playing for the greatest regular season quarterback of all time. I am scared of his health so I might handcuff a tight-end in this case. I know that sounds crazy but sometimes crazy helps you win.
• C.J. Anderson DEN RB: We just talked about Gary Kubiak and loving tight-end but to be honest that is his second love. His first love is zone blocking running and he does it often. He has made fantasy gold out of guys we didn’t know before him. Well Anderson was known and looked great for the second half of last year. Take his hunger and ability and mix it with a running philosophy and look the heck out. This could be something scary, like top 5 scary.
• Martellus Bennett CHI TE: I liked him last year and for most of the year he lived up to like. This year it has moved to love. Less weapons to spread the ball around to and a more conservative style to keep the turnovers down. This will help Jay Cutler who is a like this year and it will really help Bennett. John Fox and Adam Gase bring in the leadership and experience to make this offense run smooth with less risk. Believers will reap the reward.
