For the first time in many years, we are guaranteed to see a new light-heavyweight champion crowned. The UFC is taking a step in a Jon Jones-less direction. Undoubtedly, this leaves a very heavy void. Fortunately for us, we are going to watch a title contest that could be the most equal and competitive in years, and that makes our gambler’s prediction all the more intriguing. “Bones” was without question the top fighter in the world and he ruled over the light-heavyweight scene. With a champion that unstoppable it sometimes made for unfavorable matchups (i.e. Georges St-Pierre or Floyd Mayweather, Jr). On Saturday night, the iron fist is absent and in its place are the top two contenders in the division.
Anthony “Rumble” Johnson and Daniel “DC” Cormier are legitimate freaks of nature. Both men initially made their marks in other weight divisions before staking claim as numbers 2 and 3 at 205 pounds. Ultimately there will be only one left when Bruce Buffer echoes the phrase “…and new UFC Light Heavyweight Champion of the World” Before then though lets take a look at how these two terrific fighters stack up. Finally, let’s attempt to make an educated guess as to the outcome of their upcoming contest.
CORMIER’S ATHLETIC ROLLER COASTER RIDE
Daniel Cormier is a case study of the highs and lows associated with a professional athlete’s career. He is perhaps most famous for his missteps. In NCAA division one wrestling, he was forced to play second-fiddle to grappling god Cael Sanderson. On the international scale, he suffered a debilitating and embarrassing accident when his weight cut resulted in kidney failure just before the start of the 2008 Olympics.
After tearing through the heavyweight division in StrikeForce he came to a crossroads in the UFC. His long-time friend and training partner, Cain Velazquez, was the reigning champ. Not looking to strain that relationship and seeking to impose at a more fitting weight, he dropped down to light-heavyweight. Heartbreak was right around the corner again. This time in January he suffered his first loss via unanimous decision against the supreme Jon Jones. It is rare to receive two title shots. It’s almost unheard of to receive them back-to-back after suffering such a clear and definite defeat. This could be Cormier’s last shot. Important question is, will he need another chance?
JOHNSON’S TALENT ONLY NOW FULFILLING ITS POTENTIAL
Anthony Johnson is another prime example of good talent gone to waste. Or so it seemed. Merely three years ago, he was written off by the MMA community and released from the UFC. A naturally big man, Rumble was attempting to maximize his size and fight at a much lower weight class. Sometimes walking around at 230lbs he would attempt to compete at welterweight (170lbs). This was a huge task to take and Rumble ultimately paid for it. His depleted frame fell victim to opponents he should have been physically superior too.
In the end, he missed weight too often. Finally failing miserably in Brazil, he got ran over by Vitor Belfort. This loss resulted in his release and in a moment of reflection. Since then he has moved up in weight and rattled off 9 straight wins. The most important though being his last three. All of which are from his return to the big show. Is this another stop in his path to complete retribution?
LACK OF MMA MATH TO APPLY
This fight becomes hard to study in terms of comparable data. Both of these fighters got their start in very different divisions, Rumble at welterweight and DC at heavyweight. It’s very odd that two men entering a title fight have no identical opponents. This makes establishing a baseline very difficult. Where we should begin our journey then is looking at the comparative stats. Utilizing our good friends at FightMetric we come up with some intriguing findings.
Striking – this to many may be the most surprising stat. Rumble owns a 68% KO finish rate compared to DC’s 40%. That is not the surprise. The unique data is that DC owns almost all striking metrics. Significant strikes landed per minute and accuracy both go to Cormier. Defensively, Johnson owns a small advantage. This disclaimer should be noted: FightMetric only represents UFC fights. For Rumble, he suffers as his current streak is greatly unrepresented. Meanwhile, DC owns dominant wins against Dan Henderson and Roy Nelson which were utter blowouts. Those wins and the destruction of Patrick Cummins greatly influence the numbers.
Grappling – Ready to have your mind blown again? The Olympian is 2nd to Rumble in wresting. With all grappling stats, Rumble is out in front. Again though we have to be mindful of the stats. Cormier came up very short against Jones. That greatly impacted his accuracy, average and defense. DC sports a very small sample size of 5 fights. The outclassing by Bones throws the numbers off by quite a bit. Meanwhile, in Rumble’s second UFC run, the grappling has been almost non-existent. His last two fights were striking clinics displaying incredible power. Only the bout against Phil Davis showcased his decent takedown and defense game.
So what do the stats teach us? In this case, very little. Our data is highly skewed. I hate hearing myself saying this but perhaps the old-fashioned scouting report does best. We know off-hand the stats previously mentioned are inconsistent. So where does that leave us?
GOING BACK TO THE SCOUTING REPORT
Let’s take a look at this somewhat subjectively. We can assume that DC has the wrestling advantage. Olympic team captainship will do that for you. I think that level has also translated over to wrestling for MMA. Cormier up until the Jones fight looked unstoppable with his takedown abilities, both offensively and defensively. Rumble meanwhile has always been known for his struggles against fighters like Josh Koscheck and Vitor Belfort. A lot can be contributed to the drastic weight cut he would force upon himself. Since stepping up in weight and division, he has seemed to be much improved. Those missteps are hard to ignore though.
Striking is where I think the disagreement will come. Rumble most definitely owns the KO conversation in terms of finishing rate percentage. Looking over technique though I lean towards Cormier. Rumble was unable to finish glass-chinned Andrei Arlovski in WSOF, and outside of the Alexander Gustaffson thrashing, nothing really stands out for Johnson’s streak. A long list of regional names and former cast-offs is not all that impressive. In his UFC return, Phil Davis made fundamental mistakes when dealing with Johnson. Choosing to box on the outside, he became tepid due to Johnson’s power. He never seemed to overcome that fear or change-up his ill advised game plan. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira is also no real prize at this point in his career either. He is very chinny and has been put through a lot of punishment. His periods of inactivity did no wonders for his career either.
So how does Cormier account for himself on the feet? If we look back from the time he emerged on the big stage, the answer is pretty damn good. He burst onto the scene with a brutal knockout of Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva. He followed that up with a striking clinic against Josh Barnett. Cormier looks to have some of the best standup skills of any former high-level wrestler.
THE ULTIMATE PREDICTION
So with all of these factors in mind, who are we going with? It’s undeniable that Rumble is on a tear. He is producing high excitement in the light-heavyweight division. Ultimately for me though I want to look inside the fighter’s minds and spirits. Johnson is in my opinion the same man who tapped to Belfort after emptying his gas tank. The same guy who gave up after being flustered by Koscheck.
Daniel Cormier is the definition of a grinder. He is also durable and relentless. This Saturday could very well be the end of the line for him. The fact he is getting a title shot after coming off a definitive decision loss to Jones puts him in a controversial position. Few will be able to justify him receiving another title shot any time in the future should he lose. More than that, a loss to Johnson I believe would lead him to retire. He would have to do so in the vein of Chael Sonnen. An amazingly gritty fighter who just never could win the big one.
I couple this “all or nothing” mindset with Cormier’s brilliant fight psychology and I see him coming out victorious. I think Cormier pushes Rumble up and goes for the takedowns. Come round three or four Rumble will not have much left. He may be able to hold out for a decision loss but I imagine he folds again. I think the only way Rumble wins is to catch an aggressive DC coming in. Cormier is also very aware of this and I expect him to setup his shots.
Final Pick: Daniel Cormier straight up at -110. It is rare to see DC almost at plus money and with that line so low I think there is enough value to just take him straight up. There are some tasty props on the fight but I feel like the straight up play here is both conservative and high-value.
This is my thought. What are yours? Tweet me @PDL_Tastemaker and share your opinions.
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