The NBA draft is the one event on the NBA Calendar guided by speculation. There are no right answers, and even the draft order is determined by a lottery. Yet even without deferring to statistics, there is one absolute: Jahlil Okafor, not Karl Anthony Towns, should not go first overall.
It doesn’t matter who ends up with the pick. Right now, the Minnesota Timberwolves have successfully tanked themselves into the most favorable spot in the lottery with an abysmal .195 winning percentage in the 2014-15 regular season. This pick could, feasibly, also go to the Knicks, as well as a host of other teams.
But assuming it goes to the Wolves, there is no need more glaring than the lack of efficiency at the centre spot. A rapidly declining Nikola Pekovic shot by far the worst percentage of his career at .427, nearly 12 percent lower than last season, and 7 percent lower than his rookie season. Coupled with his dwindling scoring efficiency are his falling rebounding numbers, steadily declining after his third season in the NBA. Pekovic is now 30, past the prime of most NBA players. Joining Pekovic in the frontcourt for the Wolves is Kevin Garnett, an absolute warrior. But despite Garnett’s best Tim Duncan impression, Father Time is catching up. Garnett cannot take a team on his back.
The top pick in most NBA mock drafts, Towns has had a solid measure by most statistical perspectives. After all, he’s the leader on one of the best teams in college basketball history, a team about which Kentucky coach John Calipari recently stated the “thought of losing never entered [his] mind”. Towns, along with his teammates in the Harrison brothers and Willie Cauley-Stein, left an impression.
But the coverage of the Kentucky team’s pursuit of perfection has overshadowed a much better first overall pick in the draft: Jahlil Okafor.
Okafor vs Towns: There’s No Question
Okafor, like Towns, was part of a team chock-full of talent. Playing alongside projected lottery pick Justise Winslow never hurt, and in the event that Okafor failed, Duke’s cold-blooded three point shooting was always there to bail the team out of tough situations.
Yet there is one critical difference between Okafor and Towns: team responsibility. In the Final Four matchup between Kentucky and Wisconsin, Towns had an excellent offensive game to the tune of 7-of-11 shooting and a spectacular offensive presence. The problem for Towns came on the defensive end. Unable to contain national player of the year Frank “The Tank” Kaminsky, Towns allowed Kaminsky to match his shooting numbers, while also earning more trips to the line. During the game, Towns made no attempt to adjust, and film of the game shows Towns defending Kaminsky almost identically throughout the entirety of the game. Kentucky wound up losing this game by 7 points, and in the end, their perfect season was ruined by a lack of defensive adjustment.
Contrast this with Okafor’s approach in the national championship approach. Playing poorly early on, Okafor was repeatedly schooled by Kaminsky’s silky layups and unable to contest the Wisconsin scoring machine. He was taken out early, and played limited minutes down the stretch. Yet in the second half, when he was inserted late by Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski, Okafor took over. Playing more aggressively, he limited Kaminsky’s efficiency on the defensive end forcing him into tough shots, and then went and outhustled Kaminsky on the offensive end, scoring on a late putback to put the game on ice. The attitude change showed down the stretch, as Okafor was able to finish off an impressive performance from a host of Duke freshmen, most notably the barrage of treys from Tyus Jones and the revitalizing bench play of Grayson Allen. Kaminsky finished the game shooting 7-of-16, and Okafor’s Blue Devils were cutting down the nets after yet another Duke national championship.
Coach Flip Saunders, in an interview after a run of injuries last December, said that the Wolves had already changed their strategy to a franchise “rebuild”. In this same interview, Coach Saunders continued by saying “it’s not pleasant for anybody.” In this rebuild process, the aspect of team responsibility is critical. For the Wolves, individual talent isn’t a premium; properly supplementing that talent with leadership is what’s missing. Okafor brings that extra edge to the table.
This leadership can even be seen numerically. In their respected adjusted 40 game statistics, Towns averaged nearly 5.6 fouls. In the NBA, he’ll render himself ineffective in a significant portion of his games. In stark contrast, Okafor averages 2.2 fouls per 40, making him less of a detriment to team efforts late in games. When taking this together with his marginally better offensive output and leadership, Okafor is a more complete player.
For the Wolves, or whichever other lottery team ends up with the first overall pick, this rebuild starts with making the right pick. Saunders sent the right message to his team. If the Wolves do end up with the first pick, let’s hope the front office doesn’t flub the pick by taking Towns over Okafor.
