With today’s expected announcement of Billy Donovan as the new head coach of the Oklahoma City Thunder, it is time for a more in-depth analysis about Donovan as a coach, if he can succeed with the Thunder, and if he is the correct hire by General Manager Sam Presti.
Starting with preseason camp in the fall, the majority of fans will be focused on what Billy Donovan can do for the Thunder as an offensive coach. With two all-time talents in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, the praise (or criticism) will depend upon how effectively he can work them into an offensive system. The most common criticism of previous head coach Scott Brooks was that his offense lacked any flow and instead deviated into a “your turn, my turn” iso ball with Durant and Westbrook. Fans yearned for an offensive system similar to the Spurs, where the ball flows effortlessly, causing opposing defenses to scramble and give up open looks. However, what many casual fans fail to realize is that in a “Spurs” type of offense, the shots are distributed almost evenly between all players; that’s the reason why the Spurs leading scorer (Kawhi Leonard) only averaged 16.5 points per game. Therefore, Donovan’s objective will be to install an offense that can generate open shots at the end of games, while still ensuring that Durant and Westbrook are receiving the majority of the looks.
At Florida, Donovan ran a spread pick and roll offense that was predicated on ball and player movement. That certainly sounds promising, but one must remember that the shot clock is eleven seconds shorter in the pros and the zone defense he is used to seeing in college is almost non-existent in the NBA. Given the recent success of NBA newcomer and former NCAA head coach Brad Stevens, there is hope for Donovan to make the transition and to have a successful opening season in the NBA. But what would a successful season mean for the Thunder? When will the clock run out on OKC to win a title?
As mentioned earlier, former Butler Bulldogs head coach Brad Stevens joined the Boston Celtics two years ago and guided them to the seventh seed in the playoffs this season, despite trading their two best players midseason. Stevens was able get his players to work effectively as a team, and he excelled at designing sideline plays out of timeouts. Stevens is believed to be one of the brightest young coaches in the NBA. However, for Thunder coach Billy Donovan, the expectations are much higher. Donovan was not hired for his potential, and a seventh seed in the West would not be celebrated in the same way as it was Stevens. No, for Billy Donovan to have a successful season he needs to reach the NBA Finals and put Durant and Westbrook in position to win their first championship. While these certainly seem like unrealistic and unfair expectations, such is the job when you have two of the top eight best players in the NBA. Donovan does not have the time for a learning season; he needs to have the Thunder hitting on all cylinders at the start of the season because any games given up in the Western Conference are so difficult to earn back in terms of playoff positioning. However, Donovan is certainly aware of the expectations going in and he seems to be embracing the challenge.
The final point of observation is to examine the process used by Sam Presti when hiring coach Donovan. It was widely reported that Presti did not consult with his superstars before choosing to hire Donovan and instead made the decision all on his own. While this is certainly an admirable decision by Presti, it is not without its pitfalls. The fact remains that Kevin Durant’s impeding free agency after the season (and Westbrook’s the following season) will follow the Thunder throughout the season. Therefore, it could be argued that Durant and Westbrook would be more inclined to re-sign had Presti consulted them with the possibility of hiring Donovan. However, I believe that Presti made the correct decision by hiring the coach on his own. There is nothing that Durant and Westbrook desire more than winning, and if Presti believes that Billy Donovan gives them the best chance to win, then he was right to stake his job future on this hire.
The 2014-2015 season was a tumultuous one for the Thunder. It is hopeful that the hiring of Billy Donovan can stabilize the organization and lead them back to the NBA Finals.
