With the NBA Playoffs once again upon us, here is a look at some players and story-lines that are worth keeping an eye on.
The Refs
Hopefully any sort of conspiracy with the referees (a la Tim Donaghy) is in the past, but even refs who are on the up-and-up can be bad. As we saw during the NCAA Tournament, a bad call late in a close game can be a deciding factor. Being an NBA referee is a thankless job: get the call right and nobody notices, get the call wrong and and you are the face of all that is wrong with the NBA. Hopefully this is a non-issue, but NBA fans should always keep their guard up against crooked officials. The NBA has the worst reputation of any American sport regarding postseason officiating. There are a couple playoff series the NBA would probably just as soon forget ever happened from an officiating standpoint (see: Milwaukee Bucks v. Philadelphia 76ers in 2001, and Sacramento Kings v. Los Angeles Lakers in 2002).
The Spurs
Both Kawhi Leonard and Tim Duncan are elite on defense; everyone on the roster can score from inside and out; they’re the best passing team in the league and have the league’s best coach on the sideline. But, aside from Leonard, their stars are old. They’re the NBA’s version of the Rolling Stones in that they have not necessarily been made worse by the aging process, but it has made them perform differently. One of these times the Stones go on a “Farewell Tour,” it really will be their last go-round, and one of these years, the Spurs really will be done winning championships during the Tim Duncan Era.
The Bucks defense
With more and more teams buying into the “pace-and-space” offensive philosophy, the focus has shifted to stopping it defensively. Last season, the Spurs ran the pace-and-space offense to perfection, and were unstoppable. Few teams have ever been outplayed in the Finals like Miami was by San Antonio the last three games of the Finals. The Bucks, however, might have the best blueprint to stopping the pace-and-space offense (but may lack the overall talent to do so). Their defensive philosophy has been described as a “hybrid zone.” They’re extremely long and athletic, and most of their line-ups make it impossible to label who is at what position beyond point guard. Defensively, they use their interchangeable parts to their advantage; they switch on anything and everything, taking pressure off the guards to decide whether to go over or under picks, or leaving their bigs in no-man’s land between guarding the picker or the ball-handler on pick-and-rolls and/or pick-and-pops. It might seem more risky and aggressive when described on paper than how it’s implemented on-court, but it’s a lot of fun to watch when it’s working. Milwaukee will continue to struggle on offense though, and their ceiling is the second round. Take note of their defense while you can.
Is There a “Next Level Guy”?
Just about every postseason, there’s at least one player who takes their game to a new level. The “Next Level Guy” does not necessarily have to be on the team that wins the championship, but it certainly helps. Last year this distinction went to Kawhi Leonard, who capped off a tremendous postseason performance by going toe-to-toe with LeBron James in the Finals. Here are some candidates for this year’s “Next Level Guy”:
Steph Curry/Klay Thompson
Steph Curry is not surprising anyone, he could very well be the MVP this season, but if Golden State wins the championship, Curry could put himself into contention with Kevin Durant as being the biggest threat to LeBron James’ title of Best Player on the Planet. If too much defensive focus is put on stopping Curry, Klay Thompson could make opposing teams pay and thrust himself into the top-tier of NBA talent, much like Leonard did during last year’s Spurs run.
Giannis Antetokounmpo/Anthony Davis
Both are very young players expected to keep improving. If either the Bucks or Pelicans make it out of the first round, there should be a parade in downtown Milwaukee and/or New Orleans that resembles a championship parade. Davis is already seen as a superstar, but he also has the more daunting first-round match-up. Playoff success this early in the career of either of these players could prove to be a pivotal point for their continued improvement.
Kyle Lowry/Mike Conley/DeAndre Jordan/Isaiah Thomas
It is hard to believe this group only has one combined All-Star Game appearance (Lowry was selected this season), but all are very accomplished veterans. Even though Lowry and Conley get overshadowed by Steph Curry, Chris Paul, etc., they deserve to be mentioned any time a “Who are the best five point guards in the league?” debate happens. Along with Thomas (who can score in bunches and has the ability to lead Boston to a Round 1 upset) and Jordan, these guys are criminally underrated. A great showing in this year’s playoffs could put any one of these guys on the map and/or solidify their place on it.
The Entire Atlanta Hawks
A Hawks championship this season could mean a paradigm shift in the NBA: if Atlanta wins, the days of the “super-team” may be coming to an end. Teams may instead opt to build teams focused on roster equality and depth rather than superstars surrounded by minimum-salary role players. The Hawks are comprised almost exclusively by guys who were over-looked by other teams in free agency. The Hawks’ coach, Mike Budenholzer (the favorite to win Coach of the Year), came from San Antonio, and it is no coincidence Atlanta has operated in much the same way the Spurs do since his arrival. Other than Kyle Korver (one of the best shooters on earth), the guys on the Hawks are jack-of-all-trades-types who don’t have one elite skill, but play a very smart, well-rounded game. They are a legit title contender, and a deep run could do for basketball what Billy Beane’s “Moneyball” Oakland A’s did for baseball in the early-2000s.
LaMarcus Aldridge
A couple of seasons ago, Aldridge was the “Next Level Guy” of the playoffs. Playing in Portland, he still does not get as much notoriety as he should – the Blazers’ nationally televised games are on too late for most of the country, and the Blazers’ fan base is largely isolated to the northwest (as opposed to the Lakers, Warriors, or Clippers who have nation-wide appeal for a variety of reasons). It’s funny how Aldridge is always on lists, but never adequately acknowledged for being great. He has transitioned from “Next Level Guy” to “List Guy.” Example: somebody might be talking about Dirk Nowitzki and say “Dirk is right up there with Tim Duncan, LaMarcus Aldridge, Chris Bosh, ect. as being one of the best Power Forwards in the game …” While Aldridge is always mentioned within these lists, he is hardly ever the guy being extensively talked about. He is playing with a wrist injury, which might make him less effective, but it has become an NBA Playoff tradition that every year the NBA fan base (outside of Portland) collectively slaps itself on the forehead and asks how did we forget how good LaMarcus Aldridge is?
Chris Paul
As cliche as it might sound, Chris Paul plays basketball like he’s playing chess, while everybody else is playing checkers. He does as good a job (if not better) figuring out a defense to start a game, then spends the rest of the game taking advantage of what he learned. There’s nobody in basketball that dribbles into the paint only to dribble back out as many times during a game as Paul does. That just shows how polished his game is: never in a hurry, never forcing anything. Too many other guys think okay, I managed to dribble into the paint, I have to do something now. That often leads to contested shot attempts or bad passes. Paul knows better. When you think he’s going to shoot or pass, he dribbles back out to the perimeter and resets the offense. Then when a defender falls asleep thinking Paul will dribble back out, he gets an open layup for himself or a teammate. Watch how Paul evolves even over the course of a single game. It is almost like his brain is a basketball computer that remembers how a defense reacts every time he does something, then has it programmed to do the opposite the next time.
Early-Round Upsets
Upsets in the NBA Playoffs are obviously not as common as they are in the NCAA Tournament, but they do happen and can have a ripple-effect on the rest of the league. There was a year when the Seattle Sonics [… pours out a little liquor …] were seen as a legitimate threat to Jordan’s Bulls, but the Sonics got beat by the Denver Nuggets in the first round. Although largely forgotten, it was considered one of the biggest upsets in NBA history at the time. Unlike the NCAA Tournament, even the top seeds are susceptible to being beaten. In the NBA Playoffs, there are no “gimmies.” It would be surprising, but not shocking, to see either Golden State or Atlanta exit after Round 1. Such an upset to a top-seed can set an up-and-coming franchise back several years.
Were the Cavs playing us?
So much time has been dedicated to the Cavs this season — mainly how awkward it has been fitting in Kevin Love with LeBron James and Kyrie Irving — that it has kind of been forgotten how great they can be. Love is a free agent this off-season, and depending on whom it is you ask, he might already have one foot out the door. However, it would not be all that shocking if the Cavs make it to the Finals and Love is their leading scorer on the way to a championship. If that’s the case, the joke was on us.
