MLS 3.0: MLS and International Breaks

Why is MLS continuing to fight with Jurgen Klinsmann and every other international manager over the FIFA International Breaks?  Is it impossible to design a schedule in which every MLS team takes a short break while players are called into International camps, or are they just refusing to adapt to what every other major club already does?  If your copy of FIFA 15 can design a schedule for MLS in which the clubs automatically take a break when the rest of the world does, surely I can piece one together.  In order for MLS to be taken seriously, they must adjust their schedule to add the international breaks into the mix.

Why Is MLS Playing Through International Breaks?

In 2014, while the rest of the soccer world was taking a break for the entire World Cup, MLS was ramping back up after a short two week break.  Many teams were severally hindered by the loss of some of their star players who were still away on international duty, or were taking a break after the rigorous schedule the tournament demands.

Let’s look at a few players 2014 seasons and the impact their absences had on their clubs.

Clint Dempsey & DeAndre Yedlin

May 11^th 2014 was the last game that Clint Dempsey and DeAndre Yedlin played for the Seattle Sounders; a 5-0 loss to the New England Revolution.  While away at the USMNT camp at Stanford University, the World Cup itself, and in the time they took off after, both players missed six matches, in which the Sounders went 4-1-1.  The Sounders were able to build a deep enough roster to sustain their success while two of their starters were gone, but other clubs weren’t as lucky.

Kyle Beckerman & Nick Rimando

May 11^th was also the last time Kyle Beckerman and Nick Rimando played for Real Salt Lake before they were off to the World Cup.  While they were gone for five games, Salt Lake went 0-3-2.  Clearly they did not have the depth to weather the storm, especially given the results upon the return of their two star players; a period of eight games where Real only lost one and tied two.

Graham Zusi & Matt Besler

Graham Zusi and Matt Besler last played for Sporting Kansas City on May 14^th, a 1-2 loss against the Philadelphia Union, before they too joined the USMNT in Palo Alto.  While they were gone for the next six matches Sporting went 2-2-2, not a terrible record, but Besler would never really return to his normal self, and the rest of the season would suffer due to his late-season burnout.

Now, the World Cup International break is a beast unto itself, and even with a two week MLS break, some would say that the loss of these players for such an extended amount of time was due to Jurgen Klinnsman insisting to have a long, intense pre-World Cup training camp, but that’s an issue for a different article.

But with two bye weeks sprinkled throughout the season for each team there is ample wiggle room in the schedule to move some games out of the international breaks and into these vacancies.  Every team could benefit from knowing they wouldn’t have to try and patch together a lineup every two months, and players would benefit from knowing exactly when they all would be off.

The Great Rearrange

I went ahead and adjusted the schedule, as best as I could, to remove as many games from the major international breaks.  I went through each game, carefully considering who is playing home and away in each match, and tried to find somewhere on the calendar that A) wouldn’t lead to a quick, two day turnaround for a match unless absolutely necessary, and B) a date that wouldn’t have that team flying across the country in order to play a game only a few days later.

It wasn’t terribly hard; it just took a little planning, research, and sometimes biting the bullet and slotting in a few mid-week games.

You can begin to see patterns of how MLS scheduled these games.  The league looks like it built its season around having the big final day; one where every club is playing at the same time.  They also wanted to give every club adequate time before that weekend to prepare, just in case the playoff push for some clubs is extremely close.

When moving the games, it was important to make sure there weren’t any conflicting events at the venues.  This really only pertains to NYCFC, Seattle, New England, Vancouver and Orlando.  Barring some crazy, unforeseen event, all of the games in the major international breaks could easily be rescheduled.  The real issue, is will fans show up to these venues for mid-week games?

Finding the Truth

My colleague, Matt Pollard, dug into last year’s attendance data and turned up some interesting facts. Excluding Chivas USA due to their demise, some of the oldest clubs in the league had the worst attendance drop-off on weeknight games compared to those played on the weekend.

D.C. United averaged over 17,000 fans on the weekends, but during the week they could only pull on average 12,000, a drop-off of 28%.  The Columbus Crew saw their numbers drop 25%, as did the New York Red Bulls.  The Houston Dynamo, an old club in new clothes, also averaged an attendance drop-off of 25%, and the LA Galaxy and New England Revolution saw their numbers dwindle by about 23%.

Every club is going to have their attendance numbers drop a little during the week, unless you are Portland and Real Salt Lake.  Even Seattle saw a 14% reduction.  But with a league wide average of a 17% reduction in attendance, you can see that the league has a much tougher time attracting fans on a weeknight. This is something that is a driving force to Major League Baseball’s horrible midweek attendance, and something I’m sure MLS owners are find fearful.

You can see that spreadsheet below.

Obviously, this doesn’t take into account the television ratings for weekend and weeknight games, but it most likely would mirror the attendance fluctuations you see in the data collected.

Revised Schedule

Using this data, I can rearrange the schedule a little more to keep some of those clubs that can’t seem to pull fans during the week.  And that’s where the issues start to occur.  No matter how you play around with it, some of these teams will have to play during the week.  There’s no way around it.  You can move some of the games and line games for Portland, Vancouver, Sporting Kansas City and Toronto to play during the week, but if these teams end up playing too many games during the week, it could deter fans from continuing to show up.

But what if the league took a hybrid approach to the issue by giving half the league games off in an early season international break and the other half a break in the later part of the season?  I’ve split up the league below into those different categories.

With a little work, research, and experimentation, I successfully cleared up those two breaks.  There are still MLS games, but not ones involving teams designated as having a “bye” week.

Now, for the Gold Cup, it proved pretty much impossible to move games around.  The amount of games that MLS crams into those three weeks, 29, is massive.  But, I, being of sound mind and great planning skills, was able to free up about 10 of the games.

You can see that revised calendar below.

Show Me the Money

What it really comes down to is money.  That’s why we care about television ratings and attendance numbers.  This is why there are some teams that can play games during the week and some that can’t.  If a team is hosting games on a weeknight but no one is showing up or tuning in, that’s lost revenue.

If MLS fans really want to see a schedule that respects the international breaks, they are going to have to show that if games are played during the week, they can be profitable, and the best way to do that is to start attending those games.  This simple act of actually buying tickets to your team’s weeknight games could go a long way and have a direct affect on the entire league.

Why is the MLS playing through international breaks?  The answer is simple: because not enough fans attend weeknight matches, the only time that the league could play those games and not have to extend the season into the winter months.  And money; let’s not forget, it’s all about the Benjamin’s.

Notes

1.  Stats calculated only include regular season matches.

2.  Friday games were grouped with weekend.

3.  San Jose Earthquakes hosted home games at Levi’s Stadium and Stanford Stadium, hence their average weekend attendance being higher than their stadium capacity.