Tom Izzo is back to his old tricks. It’s hard to imagine that many people outside Lansing, Michigan though the Spartans would be back to the Elite Eight in this NCAA Tournament. Then again, Izzo is one of those coaches that can never be underestimated once they reach the tournament. On the other sideline, the same can be said for Rick Pitino and the his Louisville Cardinals, but just by nature of being a 4-seed, the expectations weren’t nearly as low. Either way, this is the one region so far that didn’t go chalk up until now (with the exception of 3-seed Notre Dame making it to the Elite Eight instead of 2-seed Kansas), it’s all been 1 vs. 2s.
NCAA Tournament, EAST REGION ELITE 8 PREVIEW
This particular match-up will be interesting to watch because it’s strength against strength, weakness against weakness. According to kenpom.com, Michigan St. enters ranked 13th in terms of offensive efficiency, while Louisville’s defensive efficiency is 5th. Flip that around, and it’s Michigan St.’s 47th-ranked defense against Louisville’s 64th-ranked offense.
For Louisville, the player to watch is offensive catalyst Montrezl Harrell, who is averaging 15.7 points and 9.2 rebounds. Not only is he very skilled, but also a match-up problem for any defense by nature of being 6-8, 240.
Another aspect to watch is how the guards on each side handle the opposition. Michigan St. is lead by Travis Trice. A senior averaging 15.3 points per game and a tick over 5 assists. Louisville will be throwing true-freshmen Quentin Snider at him. He’s hardly a slouch, but was thrust into the starting lineup (and much larger role with the team) when senior guard Chris Jones was dismissed from the team. Snider isn’t the scorer that Jones was, but he takes care of the ball, averaging less than one turnover per game on the year, which might be just as valuable to Pitino’s squad, since they can make up the scoring in other areas. Although this might be Snider’s toughest assignment since seeing his minutes increased.
It’s usually hard to imagine a team using a loss as a jumping point to go on a run and string together big wins, but that’s just what Michigan St. has done since losing to Wisconsin in overtime in the Big Ten Championship game. Also usually hard to imagine is a Tom Izzo team being considered the underdog throughout the tournament. That role seems to appear to suit this team well though, as they’ve adopted the playing-with-house-money mindset which can be a really liberating feeling for a team, especially one whose expectations are always sky-high like Michigan St. In a weird way, underachieving during the regular season might have united this team and offered the spark they needed to propel them into the tournament. On the other hand, Louisville’s season – while being a 4-seed is hardly something to be embarrassed about – seems to be full of almost-but-not-quite moments. It wouldn’t be surprising to see that play into today’s game and leave Louisville wondering what might have been had a few things broke their way this season.
Prediction: Michigan St.
