Fantasy Profile: Juan Lagares, OF, New York Mets

Welcome back to the 2015 Last Word on Fantasy Baseball Guide.  Over the next several months we will be releasing player profiles, projections, position rankings, and a number of other articles that will help you dominate your fantasy league this season.  Whether you play rotisserie or head-to-head; whether you have a standard draft, a snake or an auction league, and whether it’s keeper league or a one-year deal; we have all the fantasy information you need.

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FANTASY PROFILE: JUAN LAGARES, OF, NEW YORK METS

LWOS Ranking 79, Captains’ Value: $0.40

Juan Lagares took a slight step forward in 2014, following up a rookie season in which he played in 121 games for the New York Mets. He has quickly become one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball, and was awarded the 2014 NL Gold Glove in center field. While he hasn’t been the most productive hitter so far, he has shown flashes of upside. That, coupled with his stellar defense, will keep him in the lineup for the foreseeable future.

Last year’s final numbers were a bit underwhelming, but if you take a look at Lagares’ stats after he took over the leadoff spot, you can see the upside in his bat. In the 75 games (280 PA) in which he occupied every spot in the batting order besides 1, 3, or 4, he hit .284 with a .333 OBP, a 4.3 BB%, 4 SB, 29 runs scored, and 37 RBI. In the 37 games (172 PA) he batted leadoff, he hit .275 with a .326 OBP, 5.8 BB%, 9 SB, 17 runs scored, and 10 RBI. I underlined the SB numbers because that was the most drastic change in his numbers once he took over the #1 spot, and those are going to be the key to his offensive value in the future.

Lagares’ has little power and hasn’t shown an ability to post a decent walk rate in the minors or majors, but he always posts at least an average OBP and a slightly above-average contact rate. His best offensive skill is his speed. His speed and contact rate contribute to his ability to keep an average OBP (except for his rookie season) despite hardly ever taking a walk. Many see his 2014 BABIP of .341 (and thus his .281 AVG) as bound for regression, but he has always had an above average BABIP thanks to his ability to make contact and leg out some hits.

The steals took a big jump once Lagares took over the leadoff spot. He’s always had the ability (he swiped 21 in 130 games of AA ball in 2012), but it’s almost like he didn’t feel the need to steal bases until he batted in the “traditional speed guy” slot. He also walked more in the leadoff spot, which is a good sign. Regardless, the Mets want him to steal more in the future, and he is currently projected as the leadoff hitter going into 2015. However, he’s not a lock to stay there. If he struggles, the Mets could easily stick Daniel Murphy in the leadoff slot, whose career .333 OBP is nothing special, but it is consistently decent. It’s also worth noting that he dealt with two separate injuries and two separate DL stints in 2014, so be wary of his durability.

If Lagares continues to get better and continues to improve his walk rate, a full healthy year batting leadoff could give you a nice fantasy line somewhere in the realm of .270ish, 5 HR, 75 R, 40 RBI, and 20 steals. He’s a decent sleeper option for the later rounds.

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