With six weeks left in the NBA season, there are six teams in pursuit of the final two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference, five of which are separated by just one game. If the season were to end right now, the Miami Heat and Brooklyn Nets would hold onto the seventh and eighth seeds, respectively, while the Indiana Pacers, Charlotte Hornets, and Boston Celtics would all finish just a 1/2 game short. Due to a recent skid, the Detroit Pistons have fallen two full games behind Brooklyn for the eighth seed. Which of these sub-500 teams will ultimately make the playoffs?
NBA: The Race for the Final Playoff Spots in the East
For starters, it’s somewhat embarrassing that two teams well under .500 will end up playing in a playoff series in the East, but two Western Conference teams like New Orleans Pelicans and Phoenix Suns who are much more talented and have significantly better records will not. NBA Commissioner Adam Silver has discussed changing the playoff format, and if the conferences continue to be so lopsided in the future, then he may have to seriously consider it. However, we know for a fact that this season eight teams will make it from the East and eight will make it from the West, so let’s examine:
Miami Heat – (25-33): The Miami Heat appeared to set themselves up nicely for the rest of this season and the future with their trade for point guard Goran Dragic at the trade deadline. A lineup with Goran Dragic, Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng, Chris Bosh, and the blossoming Hassan Whiteside would have been a dangerous one that no team would want to face come springtime. Unfortunately, Bosh will have to sit out for the rest of the season after doctors discovered blood clots in his lungs.
Bosh’s condition is much larger than basketball, and my prayers go out to Bosh and his family. Bosh will be deeply missed by the Miami Heat, especially on the hardwood. The addition of Dragic was one great step forwards, but the loss of Bosh takes them right back to where they were, maybe even a little farther back.
On a positive note, the emergence of Whiteside has been an incredible story; he has taken the entire league by storm with his dominance above the rim. Whiteside’s stats in the past month have been absolutely ridiculous, especially for a former second round pick coming out of the D-League; he has averaged 14.6 points, 14.1 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks per contest while shooting 61% from the field.
Whiteside ranks 18th in the NBA in real plus-minus, five slots ahead of the reigning MVP, Kevin Durant. From a pure talent perspective, the Heat should be a playoff-caliber team and should certainly have a winning percentage much greater than 43%. Will their championship experience and deadline move to acquire Dragic push them through to the postseason?
Brooklyn Nets – (24-33): The Nets have a unique mix of expensive, overrated veterans and some nice younger players. Brooklyn will have to depend on the “big three” of Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, and Brook Lopez to carry them to the playoffs if they want to get there this year, but their youth movement should have an impact as well.
The addition of Thaddeus Young to the roster and the implementation of rookie Markel Brown to the rotation has increased the versatility and athleticism of this team tremendously. In his first few games as a starter, Brown has had some unbelievable blocks and dunks, including his 360 slam in the Big Easy. In my opinion, his greatest accomplishment this season has been his defense on James Harden, where Brown limited the Beard to 15 points on 4-15 shooting in a near-victory for the Nets.
One issue the Nets have faced is the inability for centers Mason Plumlee and Lopez to coexist. Advanced statistics have proven the Nets are one of the worst teams in the league when the two play together, but even when they play at separate times, the two never seem to get it going on the same night. For the Nets as a whole, there have been too many games where one or two players play great, but a couple other decide to take the night off. If Brooklyn wants to make the playoffs, they need a team effort on a nightly basis.
Indiana Pacers – (24-34) Last year the Pacers were owners of the top seed in the Eastern Conference, but with Paul George’s injury and Lance Stephenson’s departure, this season has been very different. Indiana has struggled to score at times, and they have definitely lost some of that swagger that they’ve had in previous years.
Recently, the Pacers have slowly resembled last year’s team more and more. Not only has George practiced without restrictions, but the Pacers have won nine of their past thirteen games, including impressive victories over Golden State and Cleveland (twice). A player as talented and dynamic as George will provide an immediate impact in his return, which may come in just a few weeks.
If Indiana can continue to win games before George comes back, then they should be in good hands. How well George plays in his return will dictate whether or not Indiana can even pull an upset if they happen to make the playoffs.
Charlotte Hornets – (23-33): I had much higher expectations for the Hornets coming into this season. Steve Clifford did a masterful job last year getting his team to buy in to gritting and grinding on the defensive end. This year, they have only dropped a little bit in defensive efficiency, but the offense has been so brutal that it hasn’t translated to wins.
The offseason addition of Lance Stephenson was supposed to add some offensive firepower, but that move has been a disaster to say the least. Stephenson has averaged 8.8 points per game on 37% shooting, which certainly does not warrant the 3 year, $27 million contract he was given in the summer.
The Hornets often look flat, and they still don’t have enough shooting on the perimeter. The lack of production from lottery picks Cody Zeller and Noah Vonleh is starting to become an issue as well. Kemba Walker has been sidelined for over a month now, but maybe his return to the lineup can galvanize this team. Walker has been consistent when he’s played, so I don’t think he himself will necessarily be the X-factor down the stretch.
The X-factor for Charlotte will be the ability of the players to accept their individual roles and flourish as complementary pieces to Walker and Al Jefferson. If everyone does their job and knocks down some clutch shots, the Hornets may have a chance to sneak into the playoffs.
Boston Celtics – (23-33): The funny part about including the Celtics on this list is that they rather not be here. Their front office would be just as content, if not more content, if the Celtics were at the bottom of the standings in position for a potential top-5 pick. GM Danny Ainge knows this isn’t the team that will bring championship glory back to Beantown, yet he finds his team right in the middle of the playoff picture.
Like the Miami Heat, a solid pickup at the trade deadline was quickly followed with disappointing injury news. Isaiah Thomas will prove to be a reliable scorer and playmaker in the backcourt, but the Celtics will deeply miss their best scorer in the frontcourt, Jared Sullinger, who will miss the rest of the season with a foot injury.
It seems as if most pundits expect the Celtics to just fall out of the playoff picture, but I don’t think that will necessarily happen. They don’t get blown out often, and they are 7-3 in their last ten games, including impressive wins over Phoenix and Atlanta. Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley make up for Thomas’ lack of defense, just as Thomas makes up for their offensive limitations.
Evan Turner is another quality player with playoff experience who has played well as of late. If Boston can scrap together a couple of under-the-rader wins and continue to grow as a team, then don’t be surprised if they are still in the playoff conversation in April.
Detroit Pistons – (23-36): Stan Van Gundy’s team has taken one huge roller coaster ride this season. It’s crazy how a team that experienced a thirteen game losing streak at one point in the season still has a very realistic chance at making the playoffs.
The Pistons struggled mightily to begin the season, capped by that massive losing streak, but the losing suddenly stopped following the surprising release of Josh Smith. Detroit won their first seven games of the post-Josh Smith era, which was mainly due to improved shooting, ball movement, and the All-Star caliber play of point guard Brandon Jennings.
In January, Jennings averaged 21 points and 7 assists in 13 games, only to be stopped by a devastating injury to his achilles that will cost him the rest of the season. Jennings’ injury severely damaged Detroit’s playoff hopes. Although, in true roller coaster form, the Pistons went out and acquired point guard Reggie Jackson at the deadline to help lead them to the postseason.
In his first four games in the Motor City, Jackson has been just alright, so it will be interesting to see how well Jackson can run his own team moving forwards. Jackson is definitely the key player to keep an eye on in Detroit. If he gets more comfortable and improves his efficiency, look out for the Pistons.
Expect the Heat and the Pacers to be 7th and 8th seeds
As the season dwindles down and the weather gets warmer, some teams will heat up and rise to the occasion, while others will crumble and fall. If I had to choose two teams to round out the Eastern Conference playoff picture, I’d go with the Miami Heat in the seventh seed and the Indiana Pacers in the eighth seed.
On paper, these are the two best teams of the six discussed, especially if George returns to play to even half of his potential. If Miami gets the seventh seed, I’d love to see a showdown against LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers; that would be epic.
As for Indiana in the eighth seed, how ironic would it be if they played the top-seeded Hawks? Remember last year’s Eastern Conference playoff matchup between the first seed and the eighth seed? Oh yeah, the Pacers played the Hawks, except the Pacers were the top seed and the Hawks were the eighth seed. That would be irony at its finest.
Regardless of who ultimately sneaks into the playoffs, the NBA season should be wildly entertaining to watch down the stretch.
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