Editor’s Note: This is the final preview for the AFC West. Click the Team Names to see previous previews for the Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, and San Diego Chargers. Check back soon for previews of the NFC North.
I have made my thoughts clear on the AFC West this season. There is no clearly dominant team, but there also isn’t one team that is sure to be pulling up the rear all season. Also, the fact that each team in the division will play one of the toughest schedules in the league will prevent any team from going on a big win streak and pulling away from their division counterparts. The Broncos have the toughest of those schedules. Their schedule is only two games different than the rest of the division, but in such a close race those two games could make all the difference. I am willing to ignore their tougher schedule and side with the Broncos to win this division because when I look around the AFC West I don’t see another team that can be trusted. I also think the Broncos have one big edge that no one else in the division can claim to have.
First off though, let’s get the Peyton Manning speculation out of the way. I don’t know what is going to happen with Peyton Manning this year, but this uncertainty hasn’t swayed me against the Broncos. Manning is a 36-year old coming off of multiple neck surgeries and is now on a new team with totally new players after missing an entire season of play. The warning signs are there and it would be understandable if anyone thought the best approach would be to stay away from Manning and his aging body.
I am not as worried because of one thing – Peyton Manning has done everything he can in the NFL. His personal stats need no explanation. He is a legend in Indianapolis, and has a Super Bowl title to his name, not to mention an MVP award. He made all of this happen over an unbelievable 13 NFL seasons. If Manning felt like he was unable to perform up to his own lofty standards then I feel that he would make the decision to walk away – he has already accomplished everything he can in the NFL. The fact that he is ready to play in Denver, ready to start 16 games for an incredible 14th time in his career ,says to me he is ready.
I don’t think Manning would enjoy playing as an average player. He wants to win, and he wants to be one of he reasons his team is winning. If you are betting against Manning this season be careful – actually, take a long look in the mirror and ask yourself if you really want to go ahead with this bet. Otherwise you could have that sudden terrifying moment of clarity early in week one after Manning is done leading his third consecutive TD drive: “Oh S*#$, I just bet against Peyton Manning.” Duh.
There is also one very underrated factor that no one seems to be covering. If Manning is totally healthy now there is a good chance he stays that way. Manning is a big dude, even when he takes hits most of the time he seems to be dragged to the ground more so than knocked on his ass. He is also better than any QB in the league at getting rid of the ball quickly and avoiding contact. This is the main reason that he never missed a game in his career until last season, starting all 16 for 13 consecutive seasons. Manning is just one of the reasons I like the Broncos this season, but the real reason is the competitive edge they have on the rest of the teams in the division – Head Coach John Fox.
In the nine seasons of his previous head coaching stint with the Carolina Panthers, Fox guided his team to the post-season three times. He never suffered back-to-back losing seasons, and in fact until the disastrous Jimmy Clausen year in his final season, the Panthers never won fewer than seven games under Fox. He was also able to take the team to a Super Bowl appearance and near victory in 2003. He accomplished this in a strange division that always seemed to have a new dominant team stepping up every few years. You might say to yourself that three division titles in nine years isn’t that impressive, and maybe you are right, but here is the catch – Fox did all this without a great quarterback.
In his tenure in Carolina the best quarterback he ever coached was Jake Delhomme. Delhomme may have sullied his reputation in his last few seasons but he was not always a terrible quarterback. At some point he was at least just a poor quarterback, never having been considered in the top half of the league. His other signal callers? Let’s start with the immortal Chris Weinke, and add in one season with 36-year old Rodney Peete. In 2007 he had the services of 44-year old Vinny Testaverde, three more for Matt Moore, and a final four for David Carr. Oh, and don’t forget the 2010 Jimmy Clausen season that cost Fox his job. See where I’m going with this? That is historic ineptitude from a gang of quarterbacks that may never be replicated.
What I find amazing was not that Fox was able to find success with some of these players, but that he was allowed to keep coaching in the first place. How often do you see a coach preside over a team for nearly a decade without ever having a strong QB leading the team. It just doesn’t happen. The team falls apart and you lose your job because we all know someone has to be the fall-guy. Instead Fox was able to field a competitive team for nearly his entire time in Carolina.
Let’s not forget one more name on Fox’s QB list – Tim Tebow. Last year in Denver, Fox was forced to turn to the divisive signal caller after a 1-4 start found starter Kyle Orton on the bench. Fox did not force Tebow into his system and watch him fail. He tailored the offense to Tebow and gave him the best chance to succeed. At one time Fox guided the Broncos all the way back to an 8-5 record before dropping the final three games of the regular season. You can call it luck all you want but Fox took what he had and he made it work. He even knocked off the defending AFC Champion Pittsburgh Steelers in the first game of the playoffs.
Now everyday when he walks out to the practice field he sees Peyton Manning under center. Quite a contrast, no? How good must Fox be feeling?
Fox was able to turn the defense around last season after they finished 30th in the league prior to his arrival. The popular opinion seems to be that they will field a dominant defense this season, just like last year. The big problem with that is that as much as Fox was able to help the defense turnaround last season they simply weren’t dominant. While they may have strung together several games at mid-season where they held their opponent’s down, that had more to do with the opponents than the Broncos themselves. In Footballoutsiders.com defensive DVOA rankings, the Broncos only finished 18th overall and a mere 22nd against the pass. This defense was exposed in the playoffs when the Patriots easily racked up 45 points against them. They also had similar devastating games during the season against the Packers (49 points), Lions (45), and Bills (40). Basically any good offense they barely acknowledged their existence.
The news is not all bad, however. The Indianapolis Colts did not need a dominant defense to win games during the Peyton Manning era. Instead they focused on one thing above all else – rushing the passer. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis were vicious pass rushers who were able to tee-off when their team had the lead. In Denver the Broncos have two different, but potentially equally effective pass rushers. Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil are legitimate pass rushing terrors and even through injuries last season they were able to lead Denver to a 41-sack season. The Denver defense is already built to get after the quarterback and now teamed with Peyton Manning could become even more effective.
Expect Manning to fit right in on offense, too. The Broncos have a better offensive line than the Colts had in any of his final years in Indy. They also feature Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Jacob Tamme on offense. Decker and Tamme are Manning’s type of player and the chemistry should develop with them almost immediately. The connection might not be as immediate with Thomas, but with his vast talent it would be hard to see him not having a huge impact this season. Don’t forget that the Broncos have allowed Manning to bring his style of offense to Denver so the adjustment will not be quite as great as some people are making it out to be.
While Fox has a track record of success in the NFL the same can not be said for his divisional counterparts. Raider lead man Dennis Allen is a first time head coach who coached with the Broncos last season. Everything said about Allen has been positive, but that is always the way it goes with new coaches. In Kansas City they have turned to once failed coach Romeo Crennel to lead their franchise. The choice does not immediately spell doom for the Chiefs, but you can be excused if you are feeling skeptical. The most well-known coach amongst Fox’s division peers is Norv Turner. Fox has a career win-loss record of 81-79 to Turner’s record of 107-113. The difference may seem trivial, until you remember Turner is going on his sixth season with one of the league’s top-5 quarterbacks. Turner’s teams have become a model of under-performance and he does little to instill confidence in the Chargers fan base.
I just argued for 1,000+ words that the Denver Broncos will win the AFC West without making one obvious connection; the Denver Broncos won the division last season and they did it with Tim Tebow. Now they have Peyton Manning – all-pro, Superbowl winning, first ballot Hall of Famer, and one of the greatest passers in the history of football. Maybe that should have been the whole article. But when that connection is made and you factor in the coaching edge the Broncos appear to have it makes it tough to bet against this team in spite of their brutal schedule. I expect the offense to come together quickly, in part because of John Fox. I expect the defense to improve this season, in part because of John Fox. And in December when the division is close and every game has playoff implications I expect the Broncos to prevail. In no small part because of John Fox.
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