For the first four parts of this series (which you can find here, here, here, and here), I used an introduction in which I described some of my own personal experiences with “bouncing back” as a precursory discussion- a “setup”, if you will- to talk about baseball players possibly bouncing back from sub-par fantasy seasons in 2014 to have nice seasons in 2015. Now that we are halfway through the series, I feel it is time to revisit its purpose, and reiterate what I mean when I say “bounce back”.
Firstly, the purpose of these pieces is pretty straightforward: I talk about players I think will either A) break out after bad seasons or B) be able to be had at a bargain price (and put up decent numbers) after bad seasons. For some positions (e.g., outfield, first base) there are many candidates, for others (e.g., catcher, shortstop), there are relatively few, mostly due to lack of offensive depth at the position.
That being said, this means that I have to be careful in whom I choose. Sure, Troy Tulowitzki could “bounce back” from his 2014 injury in 2015, but he still finished as a top five shortstop in 2014 despite missing about 70 games, so didn’t you get what you paid for (at least in roto)? Sure, David Wright could heal up in the off-season and get back to his David Wright ways in 2015, but is it likely? Player X had a great year in 2013, but sucked in 2014, will he be great again? These are the kind of questions I ask about each player before I finally pick my “bounce back candidates”. Other factors include age, current situation (ball park, playing time, etc.), and reported health going into 2015.
So in other words, I picked players who had a bad 2014 season (either due to injury, poor performance, or both) that I am confident will at least be decent in 2015.
So here we go with Part 5:
Shortstops Poised to Bounce Back in 2015
Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox
2014 Stats (144 games): .240 BA, 12 HR, 46 RBI, 60 R, 2 SB
Bogaerts came into 2014 as one of the top prospects in the game, but turned in what many would call a disappointing rookie season. Many things seem to have factored into his underwhelming performance. Between a loss of the plate discipline he showed in the minors (he reached double digits in BB% in the minors multiple times but posted just a 6.6% rate last season), being thrown back and forth between two positions, and the overall disarray in Boston, Bogaearts didn’t look much like the potential rookie of the year he was supposed to be.
People are already calling him a bust, but I say, “Hey, cool your jets, man.” The kid has just one full year of major league experience under his belt, let’s not call him a bust just yet. While his metrics in 2014 suggest that he was actually weak, not unlucky, at the plate, he still has loads of talent and potential, and there is plenty of reason to believe that he could take some positive steps forward in the coming years. I’m not quite ready to call him a top 10 shortstop yet, but if I own him in dynasty or keeper leagues, I’m holding onto him. As for this year, he should be owned in the majority of standard 10-team leagues and all larger leagues. Added plus: 3B eligibility.
2015 Projection: .256 BA, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 65 R, 5 SB
Andrelton Simmons, Atlanta Braves
2014 Stats (146 games): .244 BA, 7 HR, 46 RBI, 44 R, 4 SB
After smacking 9 HRs and knocking in 29 RBI in the second half of 2013, Andrelton Simmons was a popular sleeper pick for fantasy shortstops coming into 2014. Many predicted he was starting to develop a good bat to go with his elite glove. He responded to that hype by contributing next to nothing in standard formats in 2014.
He has the tools to be a pretty good offensive shortstop. He doesn’t strike out much, doesn’t swing at stuff outside the strike zone, yet is an aggressive swinger and makes good contact, so what’s the problem? Drew Fairservice over at Fangraphs thinks that Simmons and the Braves aren’t or weren’t on the same page in terms of what kind of hitter they want him to be. Apparently, the Braves don’t want his 17 HRs in 2013 to make Simmons think that he’s a big power bat, and want him to become more of a well-rounded hitter. Fairservice makes a fair point (see what I did there?) when he raises the question of whether or not the Braves are making the right call by making a 25-year-old change his approach at the plate.
Maybe with the hiring of new hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, and with the club perhaps backing off a bit, we can see Simmons get back to being what he is: an aggressive hitter with some legitimate pop. He probably won’t ever hit 20 homers or win any batting titles, but his skillset certainly suggests he’s capable of 15 homers and a .275 batting average.
2015 Projection: .260 BA, 55 RBI, 55 R, 5 SB
Also look out for:
Chris Owings, Arizona Diamondbacks (if he gets the full-time gig, he could be a 10/10 HR/SB kind of guy)
J.J. Hardy, Baltimore Orioles (the 9 HRs in 2014 were an aberration, he can still hit 20+)
IS YOUR SEASON OVER OR JUST WANT TO TRY A DAILY LEAGUE? JOIN ME AT FANTASY DRAFT. SIGN UP AND PLAY TODAY USING THIS LINK.
LIKE US ON FACEBOOK!!
Thank you for reading. Follow me on Twitter – @deshroyer_LWOS. Support LWOS by following us on Twitter – @LastWordOnSport and @LWOSworld – and “liking” our Facebook page.
Have you tuned into Last Word On Sports Radio? LWOS is pleased to bring you 24/7 sports radio to your PC, laptop, tablet or smartphone. What are you waiting for?
Main Photo:
