The second big trade of the offseason hit the baseball world late on Friday night, and it should surprise nobody that the Oakland A’s and general manager Billy Beane were at the center of the deal but it might have surprised some people to see the Blue Jays were the other team involved. After it was reported, just three weeks ago by FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, that the A’s would not move Donaldson, Beane reversed course and sent one of the best players in the game north of the border. At the end of the evening the deal was finalized and Oakland shipped superstar third baseman Josh Donaldson to Toronto for four players, infielder Brett Lawrie, shortstop and top Toronto prospect, Franklin Barreto, left handed starter Sean Nolin,and right handed pitcher Kendall Graveman. There is a lot to digest with this trade, so let’s start with our first attempt to sort it out.
The overwhelming reaction to the trade in the Twitterverse and the Blogosphere was that Beane had lost his mind and that the money spent on Billy Butler, which was three years and a total $30 million, could have been used to lockup Donaldson long-term instead of forcing the A’s to ship him out.
While I agree with the premise that Toronto won this trade, at least early on, because they received far and away the best player, the Butler money argument is not as simple as it may seem on the surface. Donaldson was entering his first off season of arbitration as a Super Two player and is expected to get a hefty bump in pay from his 2014 salary of $500,000. Matt Swarz, of MLBtraderumors.com, estimated that Donaldson would get a raise of $4 million for a total salary of $4.5 million in 2015. Personally, I believe that Donaldson would be more in line for a total salary of $6 million to $7 million through arbitration based on some anecdotal evidence. Miguel Cabrera received an arbitration award of $7.4 million in 2007 after accumulating 15.0 fWAR in his first three seasons. Cabrera followed that up with $11.3 million in 2008 and would have been in line to receive about $15 million in 2009, for a total arbitration award of $33.7 million. It is not inconceivable that Donaldson, who will have an extra year of arbitration that Cabrera did not have could earn something in the neighborhood of $6.5 million, $10 million, $12 million and $15 million for a total cost of $43.5 million, however this could be a conservative estimate.
Over the last two years, exactly two players have accumulated more fWAR (fangraphs.com) than Donaldson’s 14.1, and those players have each won an MVP the last two years, Mike Trout (18.3) and Andrew McCutchen (15.0). Donaldson was truly an elite player during his time in Oakland, but his age, Donaldson was a late bloomer and is entering his age 29 season, combined with his expected hefty upcoming salaries means the A’s would have been forced to move him at some point in the near future anyway.
Going to Oakland, Brett Lawrie, was once considered a can’t miss budding Major League star, but injuries have taken their toll on the infielder, who is entering his age 25 season, and the star has faded a bit. This, however, does not mean the A’s are getting a replacement level player for their superstar third baseman. Lawrie actually came up through the Toronto system playing both second and third base, and now the A’s have an opening at both positions. Defensively, Lawrie has proven to be a well above average, and borderline elite third baseman at the Major League level. And when healthy Lawrie has shown flashes of being an above average hitter with league average power, and I could see him hitting in the .270 range with a .330 OBP and 15 or so homers and 15-20 stolen bases, but he has to stay healthy.
Donaldson is a proven 5-6 WAR player while Lawrie has the potential to post 3-4 WAR. If Lawrie can post those 3 to 4 wins then the A’s should still be in good shape to compete in the American League. On top of the potential, Lawrie will make considerably less money than Donaldson over the next 3 years, which should give the A’s some financial flexibilty they need fill out the rest of the infield, where the organization currently has gaping holes up the middle at shortstop and second base.
Sean Nolin, the tenth best prospect in the Blue Jays farm system according to Baseball America, will be joining Lawrie in Oakland and should find playing time almost immediately. I was able to watch and scout Nolin this October in the Arizona Fall League and I came away rather impressed. Nolin does not possess overpowering stuff and he projects as a back of the rotation starter who is ready for the Show right now. Nolin has above average command and a repertoire of four pitches.
Nolin joins the rest of the starters in the A’s organization, Jeff Samardzija, Scott Kazmir, Sonny Gray, prospective starters Jesse Chavez, Drew Pomeranz, AJ Griffin and Jarrod Parker, with the last two coming off Tommy John Surgery. While it isn’t a stretch to think Griffin will return to his pre-surgery form in the next year and a half of pitching, the future is more uncertain for Parker, as this is his second Tommy John surgery and the success rate of pitchers coming off their second procedure is a little spotty. This trade has lead many to believe that the A’s will undoubtedly be shopping either Samardzija or Kazmir, but with the uncertainty surrounding Pomeranz, Griffin and Parker I don’t believe it is a foregone conclusion unless they can bring back another cost-controlled starting pitcher with big league experience or that the organization is believed to be ready to make the jump.
Now lets examine the other two youngsters acquired by Oakland in the trade. First, is Kendall Graveman, a right handed pitcher that started in all of his appearances while shooting through the Blue Jays’ farm system. I’ve never been able to see him pitch live, but I did see him on TV when he was starting for Mississippi State. Since he was drafted in the 8th round of the 2013 draft the sinker ball pitcher has added a cutter that got above average swing and miss numbers. Personally, I see Graveman in the Oakland bullpen with his role to be determined if he builds on his minor league success and maybe increases his strikeout numbers in the Majors.
The most intriguing piece of this trade, to me anyway, is 18 year old Franklin Barreto. Barreto was an international free agent signing in 2012 out of Venezuela, and was considered by most scouts to be one of the top players on the international market. Barreto probably lacks the frame (5’9 and 175 lbs) and the defensive profile to stick at shortstop once he hits the Major Leagues in 2016 or 2017, but he should stick at second base. Barreto should help form the A’s double play combination of the future with one of my favorite prospects, Daniel Robertson. Barreto has the raw tools to be an above average hitter with a little bit of power at a position that is currently starved for offense. Barreto definitely isn’t the type of prospect that will ever be mentioned with the likes of Addison Russell, who was traded in the Jeff Samardzija deal back in July. But Barreto is solid and I like his profile, but being incredibly young, Barreto’s career still has a ways to go before he’s ready to play in Oakland.
All in all, the Blue Jays easily received the best player in this trade and it is not even close. However, the A’s were able to get a solid Major Leaguer back in Lawrie and a piece of their rotation in Nolin, both of whom will impact the Major League team immediately. This move should also give the A’s some increased payroll flexibility for Billy Beane to work his magic when building his roster. I doubt we have seen the last of the moves that Beane has planned and until we see the final roster it is hard to pass judgment on this trade that seemingly blindsided everyone in the baseball community. It appears the Blue Jays are moving all-in on the 2015 season and the A’s, while not going into a full blown rebuild, are re-shuffling their roster in a big way to try and stay as one of the top teams in baseball. I can definitely see a move of Samardzija or Kazmir or one of their left handed hitters in Brandon Moss or John Jaso to round out their stable of starting pitchers and fill the remaining holes in their infield. I also wouldn’t count the A’s out in the Chase Headley sweepstakes now that it appears the Yankees don’t seem willing to offer the four-year deal Headley is seeking.
It wouldn’t be an offseason without the Oakland A’s making a variety of moves that nobody saw coming and giving a lot of experts some pause, but Beane has earned some leeway with his track record. However, after the Athletics’ big moves during the summer of 2014, which went against years of their organizational behavior, resulted in only a depleted farm system and not the World Series championship the organization envisioned, many will find this move, and the signing of Billy Butler, to be even more curious if the A’s do not continue to be one of the best teams in baseball. But, if there is anything I have learned over the years it’s that nobody should ever count out the Oakland Athletics.
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